ckthoms

Thank you Harbs 💜

Wow

1. Entry valuations predict long-term returns 📊 High or low entry multiples in public markets are surprisingly strong predictors of future outcomes. Dot-Com r² = 0.82 GFC r² = 0.47 High multiples → weak returns. Low multiples → strong returns.

The only real considerations in vc fund investment memos are: 1) lack of power law people 2) lack of power law companies 3) valuations Instead, it’s always the same—capacity/board seats, size of active portfolio and fund size. These matter but they aren’t threshold questions.