Commonplace

"What makes the crisis intractable is the other side of the trade. Where people trying to buy their first home want to see a 'decrease in housing prices,' the people who own homes are looking for a prosperity-advancing “increase in home values.' Politicians try to tell both groups what they want to hear. But that latter group is more than twice as large and also votes at a much higher rate. In the 2024 presidential election, homeowners cast nearly four votes for every vote cast by a renter. Notwithstanding the drumbeat in the media, most people are about as excited about lower home prices as they are about seeing their 401(k)s take a dive. Notwithstanding the polling that shows 'affordability' in general to be a top issue, most policymakers understand this." @oren_cass commonplace.org/p/high-home-va…

Link to above: commonplace.org/p/immigration-…

Brilliant post below in @commonplc by @MarkSKrikorian on the mass deportation measures America really needs. Also chock full of info on how deportation procedures actually work.

Are we prioritizing high home values? Or affordable costs for home buyers? Policymakers need to pick one, @oren_cass writes. commonplace.org/p/high-home-va…

Immigration Enforcement Needs ‘You’re Fired’ open.substack.com/pub/commonplac… "The Trump administration has made significant strides, but there will be real progress only with a significant increase in employment-related enforcement. Stay tuned."

Read the full piece from @MarkSKrikorian: commonplace.org/p/immigration-…

"In the months since President Donald Trump sent 'Border Czar' Tom Homan to de-escalate the situation in Minneapolis, some immigration hawks have feared that the administration is backing off its commitment to large-scale removal of illegal aliens. "Everyone remembers the 'Mass Deportation Now!' signs at the 2024 Republican National Convention. But long-time GOP voters also remember decades of betrayals by their own leaders, who talked tough at election time but afterward served the interests of cheap-labor employers. "Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was notorious in this regard. He led major legislative efforts for amnesty and increased immigration during the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations. Yet amid a tough primary challenge in 2010, McCain ran the disingenuous 'Complete the Dang Fence' ad. "Does the Trump administration’s turn away from ousted Border Patrol official Gregory Bovino’s enforcement approach mean that 'Mass Deportation Now!' was just the 2024 version of 'Complete the Dang Fence'? "I don’t think so—though time will tell. What’s certain is that significant reductions in the size of the illegal population are both necessary and eminently achievable. And this reduction can be done without theatrical enforcement sweeps that spur equally theatrical insurrectionary violence, which led to the deaths of two 'protesters' and prompted the president to change tactics earlier this year," @MarkSKrikorian on the future of illegal immigrant deportations.

Significant reductions in the size of the illegal population are both necessary and eminently achievable--without theatrical enforcement sweeps that spur equally theatrical insurrectionary violence, writes @MarkSKrikorian: commonplace.org/p/immigration-…

With the Trump-Xi summit set to kick off today, read @oren_cass and @DanielMKishi on what's at stake. commonplace.org/p/beijing-summ…

This week, President Trump heads to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, hauling American business leaders in tow. The meeting follows 25 years of bad deals for the United States in pursuit of globalization, which have hollowed out America’s industrial capacity. 🧵

Calling sports betting a "derivative" doesn't make it one. @MickMulvaney breaks down how prediction markets are using the CFTC to bypass state and tribal gambling laws. Read more in @AmerCompass's @commonplc 👇 commonplace.org/p/washingtons-…

What's at stake in this week's Trump-Xi Summit? @oren_cass @DanielMKishi commonplace.org/p/beijing-summ…

Mick Mulvaney explains why the CFTC's attempts to end-run state laws on prediction markets are so dangerous. @EndBackdoorBets commonplace.org/p/washingtons-…

Wondering what to make of this week’s Trump-Xi Summit? @oren_cass and @DanielMKishi break it down. @commonplc commonplace.org/p/beijing-summ…

Is this the end of the Iran War? @bradleydevlin joins @oren_cass to discuss. commonplace.org/p/the-end-of-t…

A must read from @michaelxpettis. We are living in a time of radical change when it comes to trade, but there are many structural barriers that must be overcome for those changes to produce positive outcomes over the long-term. "For the WTO to remain relevant in a world where deficit economies no longer want to absorb global imbalances, it must radically rethink its purpose. This means recognizing that trade imbalances matter, and that rather than regulating a limited number of trade practices, the WTO should work to constrain the imbalances themselves. Put differently, the objective should shift from implementing regulations to ensuring that outcomes are consistent with a stable and sustainable global system."

Read the full piece from @michaelxpettis here: commonplace.org/p/michael-pett…

"The World Trade Organization’s meeting earlier this year in Yaoundé, Cameroon, confirmed what has long been obvious: the organization is under increasing pressure—especially, albeit in very different ways, from its two largest members, the United States and China—to the point where it risks becoming merely a bystander in the emerging global reorganization of trade. "This should not come as a surprise. The WTO was organized in 1995 to enforce a set of global trade rules, but investors, businesses, and policymakers in recent years have become increasingly skeptical of them and of the wider organization. This is not because rules are unimportant, but because the rules themselves have become disconnected from the economic realities they were meant to govern. "The economic purpose of trade is to enhance global welfare. In a well-managed trading regime, countries should expand the value of their exports mainly to maximize the value of their imports. The former means shifting production to where it is most efficient, while the latter means converting higher domestic production into greater global demand." @michaelxpettis explains how to save the WTO.

"The problem with market fundamentalism is not so much its principles," @oren_cass explains, "as its lack of any. Yes, yes, we’ve all heard about 'the knowledge problem,' 'public choice,' and 'the invisible hand.' But while, miraculously, in every case some long-ago sage has already proved exactly what the fundamentalists want to believe, those insights never extend to situations where they might rather believe something else." commonplace.org/p/the-invisibl…