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$BTC
#Bitcoin Weekly outlook
Alright, so since May I perfectly (scroll through my feed and see for yourself) called:
1) That BTC would trade up into low 80s, even specifically 83k (it traded into exactly that price level)
2) That from there, it'd reject at least into low 70s (83k was indeed the exact local top)
3) From low 70s I called for 60k (we swiftly dropped into 60k)
4) At 59/60k I called for a bounce into mid 60s (we traded into ~67k thereafter)
5) From 67k, I called for another drop into high 50s, which we got just days later
6) At 59k, I disclosed a spot BTC buy while keeping shorts open.
So where do we go from here?
The most important thing first: The current low does not look convincing.
With that being said, today’s New York session may bring some relief, and looking for reactions to low 60s as a first strong area of resistance (consult images for more details). As you can see, I'm still short biased, and not looking for longs besides spot buys.
The fact of the matter is that we lost established Q1/Q2 value as well as June VWAP for good, and they now serve as strong resistance.
Furthermore, downside is open with little in the way of mid 50s, then high 40s.
I have also repeatedly pointed out the highly problematic macro and broader equities landscape, which by now, I'm sure, everyone has noticed. I posted on this for months when Hormuz just flared up and no one yet imagined Oil'd become the pass through issue its become, inflationary pressure would intensify etc. - these issues did not disappear, and today everyone, most importantly the Fed itself, talk about hiking rates.
Add to that an unprecedented IPO wave (will an already historically overextended market under such constraints be able to absorb such pressure?) and Hormuz flows being far from normalizing (Oil deserves a post on its own), and risk assets become ugly to say the least.
I could now go on talking about $MSTR and co., but I don't indulge in such speculations.
Do I want to own Bitcoin? Always. Is there a reasonable upside trade as we speak? No, not in my book.
confinedape@confinedape
I will buy some spot $BTC here, partly to lock in short profits, partly as a long-term investment. I still believe if we don't aggressively react to $58k (my next POI) this is going much lower.
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