Corey Carrasco retweetledi
At the end of the day, once the rhetoric is stripped away, one simple fact remains: Tehran has not backed down from any of its red lines. Not on enrichment, not on its missile program, not on its regional proxies(where even the ceasefire in Lebanon can be interpreted, from Iran’s perspective, as evidence of its ability to impose broader de-escalation on terms that benefit its partners), and not in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s room for compromise is inherently limited. When faced with a choice between capitulation and escalation, its preference is predictable.
At the same time, a maritime blockade or sustained pressure campaign against Iran is likely to produce internal consolidation rather than fracture, particularly in the absence of a diplomatic agreement between Tehran and Washington.
As both sides move into what could be a decisive period, the key question is not whether escalation is possible, but what it would actually achieve, especially given that it is unlikely to produce Iranian capitulation.
The Iranian regime is fundamentally different from the adversaries the U.S. has dealt with in the past. This makes it essential to reassess the cost-benefit calculus of any course of action. At present, it is far from clear that escalation serves U.S. interests, given both the risks involved and its limited utility in achieving core strategic objectives.
A negotiated agreement may stabilize the regime, but it would also constrain its ability to advance toward a nuclear weapon. Conversely, military confrontation could weaken the regime in the short term, but would likely reinforce its determination to pursue a bomb.
When a regime prioritizes the collective above the individual and is willing to absorb significant costs to preserve its revolutionary identity, even large-scale kinetic operations are unlikely to fundamentally alter its strategic trajectory.
#IranWar
#iran
Ali Hashem علي هاشم@Alihashem
Iran’s speaker and lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open.
English
