@WillrichOstmann @dee_bosa What about publicly traded companies? Slim pickings from what I can tell
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@dee_bosa Helicone (LLM observability + cost), OpenRouter (smart routing), Granica (compression-as-finops). Category splits 3 ways: token-aware caching + route-optimization + quality-per-dollar measurement. No one hits all 3 yet. First stack that does = the Datadog of AI economics.
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Higher spend will create a new software category. Just like AWS bills didn't kill cloud, they created FinOps.
enterprise needs a way to track which teams/models/workflows drive spend and route simple tasks to cheaper models and measure quality per dollar.
Already a cohort of companies here: Ramp, Databricks, Factory AI. Who else?
Ara Kharazian@arakharazian
The average business is spending 13x more on AI tokens than in January 2025, according to @tryramp data. That’s driven growth for OpenAI and Anthropic. While tokens are still a small share of actual business spend (<2% even for the highest spenders), this trend is unsustainable for most businesses. Two players will win out as businesses pivot to cost discipline on AI: — Google and Microsoft, who can more competitively offer cheaper models (they’ll be profitable anyway) — Platforms (Cursor, OpenRouter) that offer access to smart routing and open source models, cheaper than what you get from the main model companies. My comments in @dealbook today.
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Why is the UK always the source of curve instability? Brexit, Truss and now this
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Extremely excited to have one of my favorite guests, @strassa2, back on the show later this week.
If you have questions for Jason about anything related to financial markets, get them in now by replying to this. Thanks in advance.
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Who's the Blodget of this cycle? It's not Ives, that's too easy.
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@TotemMacro @altcap And Gerstner sounds like a battered wife apologizing for him.
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Why didn’t he answer your question? Why didn’t you feel comfortable pushing for an answer? Why did he feel comfortable threatening, intimidating and deflecting? Why did you allow that? These are all red flags and easy to see. So it’s more about what he didn’t say than whether he did say. And what he did say is self-serving pump. People aren’t buying it given what they saw. You asked the only question that matters, and he couldn’t and wouldn’t answer.
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People reading too much into Sam being feisty. I love that about him & in our founders. We laughed about it after. If you listen to his words - here is what is said: (1) alot more than $13 B revs in 2025, (2) $100 B revs sooner than people expect, (3) spending commitments aligned with revenue expectations & (4)
risk of too little compute far greater than risk of too much.
At that growth rate, could be $200 B revs in 2030. Match that against $200 B of capex & u have absolute juggernaut. If revenues come in slower, which is totally possible, they extend their capex ramp & u still have the fastest value creation in history.
AI is the biggest supercycle in the history of technology & OpenAI is category defining. Their products (and the products of other frontier labs) improve lives & are critical for our country.
Thrilled it is a huge investment for me & for Altimeter - and as Sam knows well - I am still a buyer. DM me if you are selling! 🫡🚀🇺🇸
tae kim@firstadopter
How can OpenAI with $13 billion in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments? (Source: @BG2Pod ) Sam Altman: “First of all. We’re doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. I just, enough. I think there's a lot of people who would love to buy OpenAI shares. I think people who talk with a lot of breathless concern about our compute stuff or whatever, that would be thrilled to buy shares. So I think we could sell your shares or anybody else's to some of the people who are making the most noise on Twitter about this very quickly. We do plan for revenue to grow steeply. Revenue is growing steeply. We are taking a forward bet that it's going to continue to grow and that not only will ChatGPT keep growing, but we will be able to become one of the important AI clouds, that our consumer device business will be a significant and important thing, that AI that can automate science will create huge value. There are not many times that I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous OpenAI is about to go out of business. I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that. But we carefully plan. We understand where the technology, where the capability is going to grow and how the products we can build around that and the revenue we can generate. We might screw it up. This is the bet that we're making and we're taking a risk along with that. A certain risk is if we don't have the compute, we will not be able to generate the revenue or make the models at this kind of scale.” Satya Nadella: “And let me just say one thing as both a partner and an investor. There is not been a single business plan that I've seen from OpenAI that they've put in and not beaten it. So in some sense, this is the one place where in terms of their growth and just even the business, it's been unbelievable execution, quite frankly. I mean, obviously, OpenAI, everyone talks about all the success and the usage and what have you. But even I'd say all up, the business execution has been just pretty unbelievable.”
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As predicted on pod over last 4 episodes - a big China deal was the most likely outcome & huge tailwind for the global economy bc Trump is a “pragmatic realist” & self-described “deal junkie” rather than a “values” locked China Hawk. No decoupling. Fair trade for the win. 🇨🇳🇺🇸
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
Investors are waking up to some huge news from China: A trade deal is coming. China’s Vice Minister of Commerce just announced that US and China reached a "consensus" on key trade issues. This INCLUDES export controls, tariff suspensions, fentanyl-related measures, anti-drug cooperation, trade expansion, and US Section 301 fees. On top of this, US Treasury Secretary Bessent says China is "ready" to make a trade deal with the US after 2 days of negotiations. Bessent has added that China wants to make "substantial" US soybean purchases. All while President Trump says he is hoping for a "complete deal" with China this week. As we said on October 10th, President Trump's 100% tariff on China is very likely to NOT go into effect. We believe a trade deal is imminent.
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A lot of people really want to read their preferred political narrative into the inflation data, but they remain stubbornly unaffected by tariffs. The same goods categories that had a modest bounce in June in the US also bounced across North America and the UK. Not tariff driven.
Council of Economic Advisers@CEA47
Many commenters are confusing relative price changes with inflation. There will always be some of the former, but still no sign of material shift in the latter. Nevertheless, narrowing in on core goods, we see larger inflationary increases in Mexico, Canada, and the UK.
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@partners_road Doesn’t it matter who gets the freshly available title? Presumably domestic savings would flee if they sensed an opportunity
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From best DC contact: If Xi is set to formally lose his grip on power by giving up 1 of his 3 titles, it would represent poss the most bullish risk event of the post-COVID period (& perhaps in the 21st century). We’re critically focused on this issue (& implications) at my fund.
RiverRoadPartners@partners_road
Took flack for saying that Xi’s position was tenuous. People fell back on the fallacy that he is Chairman for Life. Now we’re leaning that, over the past few months, developments point to the potential, & potentially imminent, fall of China’s “Chairman of Everything” Xi Jinping.
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I’m still in the Sept cut camp but any shot of one before likely rests on Fridays jobs data deteriorating
If we get deterioration they would likely want to see another month of data in July before moving
There isn’t an August meeting.
Sept gives them three sets of jobs and inflation data, resolution to the BBB and maybe some clarity on tariff policy
It also sets the table for issuance going forward and the curves response/reaction to all of that
I would be very surprised if they made any move between meetings
And it’s possible that an Oct and or Dec cut is on the table as well
It’s all speculation now till we get some clarity on policy
I do think the long end futures will face headwinds going forward
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Rockies (18-62, -31.5 GB) are promoting their VP of Corporate Partnerships to President of the team because nepotism.
Although there is a real possibility they just couldn’t convince anyone qualified to take the so they went with the cheapest guy.
Colorado Rockies@Rockies
The Colorado Rockies announced today that President & Chief Operating Officer Greg Feasel, a member of the Rockies front office since 1995, will step down at the end of the 2025 season. As part of this transition, former Vice President of Corporate Partnerships Walker Monfort has moved into the role of executive vice president of the Rockies, effective immediately. He will lead the club alongside Feasel through the transition and will officially assume his responsibilities in January 2026.
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@Fullcarry Why? He can’t get a crank through Congress, credible candidates might offer some insurance cuts but little beyond that. And new guys term will extend beyond Trump term.
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The crazy thing about this chart is the scale.
We’re being told that China can bring the global economy to its knees by cutting off exports of ~$4T a year.
Sorry, I’m not buying it,
Gavekal@Gavekal
April export data showed a sharp fall-off in Chinese exports of rare earth materials and magnets, and this likely continued—if not worsened—in May as trade tensions remain (we won’t know for sure until the data lands on June 20). While the London agreement included some easing of US companies’ access to these goods, it is a fair bet that China will keep them on a tight leash to prevent stockpiling and maintain maximum leverage.
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I have heard lots of people say this:
1. Rest Of the World equities are about to take off relative to the USA.
2. AI and tech will explode over the next 1-5 years.
Those 2 statements are just incompatible and anyone using them is just irrational. There are very few tech companies outside of the USA and tech is a huge weight in US indices.
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What is this graphic aesthetic called, that you see on linkedin thoughtpieces
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@Aureliusltd28 It’s positive carry, the skew is massively against USD and the market can’t sustain that
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