ogle

I'm very honored (and surprised 🙃) to be included in the coindesk #mostinfluential2023 list this year! I'm not so sure I deserve it, but I sure do appreciate it 🙏

@jacobagi @wolfofshelby "things gap up when there are more buyers than sellers" ... yes, I agree but under no circumstance will it take "modest" amounts of inflows to take a token from a $64 billion fdv to $325 billion bud

@cryptogle @wolfofshelby "amount of capital" is a fallacy. Things gap up not because 100s of billions pour in, but because there are no sellers of the token at lower prices... so you need relatively modest amounts of inflows coupled with a reduction in outflows.

is $350 $hype more likely, or is $12 $lit? both are 5x from here. one seems far more likely, faster (lighter) this is how you should think of where to put your cash, imo - not which is your "favorite" or which one's tribe you like best

Lighterliquid

it’s really that simple.

@Slick_stanley imo they're both pretty well protected from significant downside (75%+), but the risk remains of course I usually calculate potential upside vs potential downside (r/r) based on my own analysis. In this case it is very significantly positively weighed toward $LIT

@cryptogle How about downside risk?

my honest view: lighter can do bigger % upside than hyperliquid, but only if it proves it can become distribution-first, not just another perp dex. right now the setup is actually interesting: → ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 is around $2.4–$2.5 → circulating market cap is around $600m → FDV is around $2.45b → lighter is already doing around $1.35b perp volume/day and $40b+ perp volume in 30d → protocol revenue annualized is around $72m, with trading fee revenue flowing into buybacks / holders revenue mechanics. that means lighter is not just “narrative.” it already has real volume, real fees, real revenue, and a buyback loop. my prediction framework hyperliquid:native at $70 doing a 5x means $350 hype. that puts hyperliquid in a monster valuation zone. not impossible, but it needs to become the onchain binance for perps. for lighter, because the starting market cap is much smaller, the upside can be more violent. at current ~$2.4: → base case: $6–$8 that’s just reclaiming / slightly pushing above its previous ATH of $7.86. this is very possible if volumes keep growing and market sentiment improves. → bull case: $15–$25 this happens if lighter becomes the clear #2 perp dex after hyperliquid, gets stronger liquidity, better markets, better mobile UX, and keeps growing through Robinhood / Telegram-style distribution. Robinhood said eligible users can access Lighter perps inside Robinhood Wallet, and Wallet in Telegram also launched perps via Lighter. → crazy cycle case: $40–$60 this is where lighter starts getting priced as a serious onchain exchange, not just a token. at $50, LIT would be around $12.5b circulating market cap and $50b FDV if total supply is 1b. Expensive, but not insane if the market starts valuing perp dexes like the future of crypto trading. → mania case: $80–$100+ possible only in full bull mania + hyperliquid going much higher + lighter becoming the robinhood/telegram-native perp layer. this is not my base case, but crypto does stupid things when revenue, distribution, and narrative line up. my personal target i would not be shocked to see LIT at $20–$30 in a strong cycle. that’s roughly 8x–12x from $2.40. the “how crazy can it go” number is $50+, but for that lighter needs to prove it is not just following hyperliquid. it needs its own lane. what lighter needs to do: → keep volume growing from $1b/day toward $5b–$10b/day → improve liquidity so big traders can enter without bad slippage → add more markets: crypto, stocks, commodities, forex-style perps → make Robinhood Wallet / Telegram trading feel stupidly simple → keep buybacks strong and transparent → avoid ugly token unlock pressure → become the easiest perp dex for normal users, not just crypto degens the big bet is simple: hyperliquid is the onchain binance for pro traders. lighter can become the onchain robinhood for perps. that second market can be massive. so my clean prediction: hype: $70 → $350 = 5x lit: $2.40 → $20–$30 = 8x–12x bull case lit crazy case: $50+ if distribution really hits not financial advice, but from a pure risk/reward angle, lighter has more upside because it is starting from a much smaller base. *views are personal*

@stutireal @krakenfx one of the top 3 reasons I'm glad I flew across the universe to effing Montenegro for Zuzalu was that we met and became friends. Good luck on your next adventure Stuti

Some personal news: after ~4 years, I’m saying goodbye to the @krakenfx family and Triton Capital. I joined Kraken Ventures in 2022 because I believed blockchain is better infrastructure for financial services. Four years later, I believe it more… and somewhere along the way, the thesis grew: in tandem, AI will also remake money movement just as completely. I backed teams like @ethena, @Morpho, @monad and Smart Bricks, and contributed to the early conception of Ink, Kraken’s L2. I relentlessly educated on and pitched stablecoins (should I bring back “Stablecoin Stuti”?) Thank you to my current and former colleagues at Kraken and Triton for this opportunity, and above all to the founders who let me into their corner. I’m staying in San Francisco, and I’m not slowing down. More soon - in the meantime, founders my DMs are still open to you!

@opieaccount4 app.lighter.xyz/stats?tab=buyb…

@cryptogle i've heard that claim too, can you link the tx where it happens?

"As of today, $LIT market cap is ~$650m, with annualised revenue of $72m, giving it a P/S ratio of 9.02, which is about half of Hyperliquid's P/S ratio of 18.84, with a $15.62b market cap and annualised revenue of $830m. Additionally, Lighter posted 34% MoM revenue growth last month, following consistent negative MoM growth since the start of the year."

@opieaccount4 wut? it's directly correlated via revenue distribution & tokenomics 100% of trading fee rev goes to buying+burning $lit, staking lit gives trading fee discounts among other things, and expansion (like to RH or Telegram) drives more volume, more fees, and therefore higher price

There is a strong argument to be made that $LIT is this cycle's $SOL. Both $LIT and $SOL were considered left-for-dead VC scams. They both faced established, monopolist incumbents in $ETH and $HYPE. $SOL had to fight every step of the way against $ETH maxis fudding even obviously bullish developments. $LIT has had to fight every step of the way against $HYPE maxis fudding even obviously bullish announcements. Both $LIT and $SOL offer a cheaper, more performant alternative to the higher fees and slower block times of their competition. And even their competition is in an eerily similar position. $ETH maxis believed that $ETH + L2s was the only smart contract chain that needed to exist. $HYPE maxis believe that $HYPE + HIP3 is the only perp dex that needs to exist. $ETH maxis watched as several Ethereum killers, such as $AVAX, $TERRA and $ADA tried and failed to launch competitive products. $HYPE maxis watched as several Hyperliquid competitors such as $DYDX, $GMX and $DRIFT tried and failed to take any meaningful amount of Hyperliquid's market share. ETH's long track record of success, capped off by their successful transition to PoS, lead to a culture of complacency that allowed the hungrier SOL community to grow quickly. ETH maxis' continued fud provided the fuel for a monster hated rally that allowed SOL/ETH to move from a bottom of .01 to a peak of .09, for a total of an 800% increase in SOL relative to ETH. HYPE's long track record of success, capped off by the explosive uptake of HIP3, might lead to a culture of complacency that allows the hungrier LIT community to grow quickly. If HYPE maxis continue to fud all things LIT, that might provide the fuel for a monster hated rally. LIT/HYPE appears to have bottomed at .0175. If LIT goes on a similar run to SOL, that could put the top of LIT/HYPE at .1575, for an implied valuation of $10.94 per LIT at HYPE's current price. This is a rough comparison that lacks nuance, but I think it can act as a useful mental model. And while there are many important differences - HYPE is nowhere near as complacent as ETH was, for example - the similarities these coins demonstrate are compelling and should be considered. One last similarity I find fun is that both ETH and HYPE maxis refuse to entertain the idea of diversification - simply owning both the incumbent and the challenger- while SOL and LIT bulls champion it. Rationally, these roles should be reversed. The incumbent should be the one to lobby for prudent hedging, while the challenger favors reckless over-concentration. I think it is telling that, just like SOL, LIT feels confident enough to say, "we don't need your money, but we're telling you, we're coming for you, and you're gonna want a hedge if we're successful." And, just like ETH, the HYPE maxis respond by saying, "We do not need any exposure to anything else but HYPE. You will fail just like everyone else who has tried."

Lighter entirely replaces monad both as a trading chain and a gen purpose execution layer, which are 99% of what monad offers, and has actual usage

this is gonna be awesome, looking forward to it

Pleased to co-counsel on this brief with my good friends at @CahillNXT, @NYcryptolawyer, Sam Enzer. The idea that someone without private keys can claim ownership of cryptocurrency because of a lack of movement of those assets runs directly contrary to the notion of self-custody and would wreak havoc on individuals and financial institutions if accepted. It's also directly contrary to settled law (and common sense). Our brief lays this out in detail.

@6hostllm @Lighter_xyz

@cryptogle What's the CA? Official link? Anything?

bullish lighter

@_El33_ Yeh @kidponga was a bit confused it seems, but I'm sure he'll issue a clarification post in the spirit of intellectual honesty now that he sees the real situation

I see a bit of a goofy take here so let me help: You're confusing legal and economic ownership, and on top of that, not testing $LIT and $HYPE in the same way. Neither token gives legal ownership: $HYPE: issued by the Hyper Foundation: holders have zero claim on HL Labs. $LIT: issued by Lighter's C-Corp. Giving it legal ownership would make it a security (KYC) Both give economic value accrual: $HYPE: ~97% of fees buy HYPE through AF by mechanism. $LIT: 100% of trading fees buy back LIT daily, with all current and future revenue committed to the token on record. Neither is legal ownership. Both accrue fee value. And only one is issued by the actual operating company, that one's $LIT. Hope this helps, good day!

@Crypto_Alch You'll do well long-term there I'm sure. Hype / Lit aren't mutually exclusive bets in my opinion, room for both (I have both)

@cryptogle Comfy in hyperliquid:native man

Same question will be asked at $10 $lit - early af

Both are doing great work, but let's put it in perspective...

Whale just bought 572,929 more $LIT (1.5M) and now holds 1.36M. Expecting multi-strategy funds to accumulate next. Here they come ~ arkm.com/explorer/addre…