CryptoPenguin retweetledi
CryptoPenguin
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Statement from CoW Protocol:
Earlier today, a trader attempted to swap 50M aEthUSDT for aEthAAVE through Aave's swap interface, which is powered by CoW Protocol. Despite clear warnings that showed the user they would lose nearly all of the value of their transaction, and despite needing to explicitly opt into the trade after seeing the warning, the user chose to proceed with their swap.
It is important to point out that CoW Protocol is a DEX aggregator that routes transactions through nearly every major public and private liquidity source. No DEX, DEX aggregator, public liquidity pool, or private liquidity pool (or combination thereof) would have been able to fill this trade at anywhere near a reasonable price.
Preventing users from making trades removes choice and can lead to terrible outcomes in some situations (e.g. a market crash). That said, trades like these show that DeFi UX still isn’t where it needs to be to protect all users. As a team, we are now reviewing how we balance strong safeguards with preserving user autonomy.
It goes without saying that we will also refund any fees sent to CoW DAO as a result of this transaction.
We will keep the community posted as new information comes to light.
CoW DAO@CoWSwap
Hey everyone — we’re aware of the large swap transaction circulating on X. Based on what we’ve seen so far, there’s no indication of a protocol exploit or otherwise malicious behavior. The transaction executed according to the parameters of the signed order. Our interface shows clear price impact warnings for swaps of this magnitude, as does Aave’s. We’re continuing to review the details and will share updates as we learn more.
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@CoWSwap @FaucisBeagles price impact of at least 100% sounds like you're buying something at 2x the price
is english not your native language or did you inhale too much defi hopium
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@etherscan how about... you just hide txn below 10 usd and warn users very heavily before they decide to show the txns
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@StaniKulechov another case of "PRICE IMPACT IS NOT SLIPPAGE HUR HUR HUR " retarded DeFi design that does nothing good to the user. hope you got your choice of language signed off by some lawyer to cover your ass
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Earlier today, a user attempted to buy AAVE using $50M USDT through the Aave interface.
Given the unusually large size of the single order, the Aave interface, like most trading interfaces, warned the user about extraordinary slippage and required confirmation via a checkbox. The user confirmed the warning on their mobile device and proceeded with the swap, accepting the high slippage, which ultimately resulted in receiving only 324 AAVE in return.
The transaction could not be moved forward without the user explicitly accepting the risk through the confirmation checkbox.
The CoW Swap routers functioned as intended, and the integration followed standard industry practices. However, while the user was able to proceed with the swap, the final outcome was clearly far from optimal.
Events like this do occur in DeFi, but the scale of this transaction was significantly larger than what is typically seen in the space.
We sympathize with the user and will try to make a contact with the user and we will return $600K in fees collected from the transaction.
The key takeaway is that while DeFi should remain open and permissionless, allowing users to perform transactions freely, there are additional guardrails the industry can build to better protect users. Our team will be investigating ways to improve these safeguards going forward.
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按照白银历史上俩波流动性供应脉冲测算海力士，三星，ewy，中韩半导体三个的这波存储供应脉冲价格峰值，以及时间。
白银历史上前高是1980年的50美金，今年最高价是1.29号120美金，2.38x倍幅度。
海力士历史最高价是互联网浪潮1999年创下的77万韩元。同比例按照白银当年50美金幅度，测算现在海力士107万韩元的价格相较77万韩元涨幅37%。对应到白银是68.5美金。
那么白银68.5美金（12.20号）冲刺到1.29号的120美金用时26个交易日。
对应到海力士今天价格，过26个交易日是2026年4月7号达到脉冲阶段性最高价183万韩元。
当前海力士涨幅空间仍有72.6%。
按照价格比率，以此测算三星4.7号价格为41万韩元。
若三星达到41万韩元，海力士达到183万韩元。 $EWY 将在4.7号达到240美金。
中韩半导体etf依据52.2%权重带动，价格会冲到7.8元。
川沐｜Trumoo🐮@xiaomustock
明天写一个这波韩股指数包括海力士的最高点预测思路，然后给一个推测结果，包括到达的时间点，太晚了明天写，晚安老表们。
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CryptoPenguin retweetledi
China knows exactly what this does. Their domestic version of TikTok caps kids under 14 at 40 minutes a day, locks access between 6am and 10pm, and swaps the entire feed to educational content. Science, history, museums.
The version they export to everyone else? Unlimited, unrestricted, pure dopamine on demand.
When kids in the US and China were asked what they wanted to be when they grew up, the number one answer in America was influencer. In China it was astronaut.
Macron calls this a cognitive war. Export what dulls young minds and keep what makes them intelligent for your own population.
This is the most effective weapon ever deployed against a generation’s ability to think.
Nicholas Fabiano, MD@NTFabiano
Addiction to short-form videos reduces brain activity in the frontal lobe weakening the ability to focus.
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CryptoPenguin retweetledi
Remember this scene in The Big Short?
Jamie Shipley and Charlie Geller have bet everything against the housing market.
They've been bleeding for months, wondering if they're wrong.
Then they flip on CNN and see it: New Century Financial - the second-largest subprime lender in America - has filed for bankruptcy.
"It's starting."
That was April 2, 2007. New Century wasn't the crisis. It was 1% of the problem. But it was the first domino.
4 months later, BNP Paribas froze 3 funds citing "complete evaporation of liquidity." 18 months after that, Lehman was dead.
I'd encourage you to watch that scene today. Because we JUST got our New Century moment in private credit:
Blue Owl Capital - $307 billion in assets under management - just permanently halted investor redemptions at its retail private credit fund, OBDC II.
Investors will NEVER AGAIN redeem shares from this fund.
On January 25th, I wrote that private credit was showing cracks at the exact moment Wall Street wanted to open it up to your 401(k).
3 weeks later, here we are.
The timeline follows a pattern anyone who's been around markets long enough recognizes:
Through the first 9 months of 2025, OBDC II investors withdrew $150 million - up 20% year over year.
Meanwhile, Blue Owl execs publicly assured investors there was "no meaningful pressure" on their asset base.
But there was. And they're now facing a federal class-action lawsuit for saying otherwise.
In November, they attempted a merger that would have forced OBDC II investors into a publicly traded fund trading at a 20% discount to NAV. Effectively confiscating a fifth of their capital.
Blue Owl's own CFO conceded investors "could take a potential haircut." The stock dropped 11% in 8 days. They killed the deal.
Now they've abandoned the pretense entirely. PERMANENT halt. Fire-selling $1.4 billion in loans across three funds.
Investors get roughly 30% of NAV back through quarterly distributions - on Blue Owl's schedule, not theirs.
One delightful detail:
Blue Owl's co-CEOs have pledged $1.9 billion of their OWN company shares as collateral for personal loans - proceeds used, in part, to acquire the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The stock is down 33% this year. That collateral has literally shed $260 million since January.
Founders leveraging company stock for hockey teams while retail investors queue up for their own money. Wall Street's version of noblesse oblige.
But here's what matters:
This isn't about Blue Owl.
Blue Owl is a symptom.
The disease is a $3.4 TRILLION private credit industry built on opacity, conflicts of interest, and the polite fiction that illiquid assets can offer liquid redemptions.
Morningstar DBRS reports the trailing default rate has risen to 4%, up from 2.8% a year ago.
Downgrades outpacing upgrades. Outlook negative. UBS warns defaults could reach 13% if AI disrupts the software companies making up 17% of BDC loan portfolios.
Payment-in-kind loans (where borrowers can't pay cash interest and simply pile it onto the debt) have surged past 11% of BDC income.
When your borrowers are paying you with IOUs, the word "income" deserves quotation marks.
And the government's response?
Open YOUR 401(k) to private credit.
Trump's executive order directed regulators to do exactly that.
They want to "democratize" an asset class whose flagship retail product just permanently locked investors out.
The KKRs. The Blackstones. The Apollos. Everyone loaded up on private credit is exposed.
When the tide goes out, you find out who's swimming naked.
In April 2007, New Century went bankrupt.
Most of the financial world shrugged. 17 months later, Lehman made the point impossible to ignore.
And Blue Owl permanently halted redemptions TODAY.
AVOID PRIVATE CREDIT
AVOID PRIVATE EQUITY
Because it's starting...
George Noble@gnoble79
In August, President Trump signed an executive order titled "Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors." The order directs regulators to make it easier for your retirement savings to flow into private credit, private equity, and other "alternative" assets. The Department of Labor quickly rescinded Biden-era guidance that had discouraged these investments in retirement plans. Apollo. Blackstone. Goldman Sachs. State Street. They're all racing to launch private credit products for your 401(k). But here's the problem: Private credit is showing cracks at the exact moment they want to open it up to retail investors. Just this week, BlackRock TCP Capital - one of the largest publicly traded private credit funds - plunged 17% after disclosing a 19% writedown on its net asset value. The biggest drop in almost six years. This is BlackRock. The world's largest asset manager. $14T in assets. If they're taking hits like this, what chance does your 401k have? Let me walk you through what's actually happening in this market... Private credit has ballooned to over $2T in assets. For years, it was the domain of sophisticated institutional investors - pension funds, endowments, insurance companies. These investors have teams of analysts, lawyers, and risk managers to evaluate complex deals. Your average 401k participant doesn't have any of that. And the timing couldn't be worse. The IMF's 2025 Financial Stability Report found that 40% of private credit borrowers now have NEGATIVE free cash flow. That's up from 25% in 2021. Goldman Sachs data shows 15% of borrowers can no longer generate enough cash to fully cover their interest payments. UBS forecasts that private credit defaults could climb by 3 percentage points in 2026 - outpacing leveraged loans and high-yield bonds. Meanwhile, payment-in-kind loans - where struggling borrowers defer interest by adding it to their debt balance - have surged from 7.4% in 2021 to over 11% today. When a company can't pay interest in cash, that's not a sign of health. It's a sign of stress being disguised. Then came September's wake-up call: Auto parts maker First Brands collapsed with $8B in off-balance-sheet financing that wasn't properly disclosed to lenders. Subprime auto lender Tricolor imploded amid allegations it pledged the same loans as collateral to multiple creditors. Both received clean audits shortly before they cratered. First Brands' term loans went from 90 cents on the dollar to under 15 cents in weeks. JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon put it bluntly: "When you see one cockroach, there are probably more." Here's what makes this dangerous: Private credit is lightly regulated, less transparent, and difficult to value accurately. The managers making the loans are often the same ones valuing them. They have every incentive to delay recognizing problems. The DOJ has already issued warnings about "creative" marks and questionable valuation practices. Banks aren't insulated either. They've lent over $2.2T to non-bank financial institutions. When problems surface in private credit, banks feel it too. And now they want to put this in YOUR retirement account. The pitch is that private credit offers "higher returns" and "diversification." But the data doesn't support the sales pitch: Recent research shows pension funds increasing exposure to private markets have actually seen depressed returns compared to simple stock and bond portfolios. The 50 largest US pension funds averaged just 7.4% returns over the past decade. A basic 60/40 portfolio beat many of them. The real beneficiaries are fund managers charging 2% fees on assets that can't be easily valued or sold. My view really hasn't changed: AVOID PRIVATE CREDIT When sophisticated institutional investors start pulling back - and they are - the last thing you want to do is rush in. Stay in liquid, transparent, low-cost investments for your retirement. Don't be the exit liquidity.
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CryptoPenguin retweetledi
This is a great point.
When it comes to bubbles the path is not as simple as most would expect.
It takes deep disruption, progress and businesses cases before everyone is on board.
1996: -33%
1998: -39%
1999: -50%
Within 4 years of the top the world thought it was over at least 3 times.
And we are not talking about tech as a whole that got disrupted, we are talking about the internet sector that was supposed to be the new digital gold.
Same fears about disruption, same thoughts about cannibalization. Yet we went and went upwards.
What we would need to see to form the top.
1. Everyone going into AI and implementing agents
2. A massive amount of AI IPOs
3. Lower rates
4. Deflationary impulse shown through @truflation reflect in data
5. Text from family and taxi drivers talking
6. Massive pre revenue rounds, so called narrative plays
7. Talent war with massive checks
8. Massive market cap concentration
I’d say we have the last two at least but the rest is not given.
Seth Golden@SethCL
People forget that even during the building of the internet infrastructure time period, the S&P Internet services industry had 3 drawdowns of 39% or greater, from 1995 - 1999. The internet was supposed to fail and cannibalize with each drawdown narrative, but never realized. $SPX $QQQ $XLK $IGV $MSFT $CRWD $PLTR $NDX $SPY h/t @DeanChristians
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乌云的这个用量描述基本上是准确的：
$20 的订阅大概能用到 $100 - $200 的额度范围
Max 订阅大概是 Pro 的 6 倍
如果按这个比例算下来，月订阅价格大概仅仅比官方贵了约 20% 左右。
实际上如果要订阅官方，也要交30%的苹果税
所以综合折算下来其实和官方的性价比是一致的
我已经冲了max100刀套餐，目前使用良好！
雪踏乌云@Pluvio9yte
重磅消息：终于找到了 Claude 稳定订阅的方法，并且Claude Opus4.6模型免费两周！详情看下文。 事情是这样的：虽然我自己已经用上了 Claude Max，但身边朋友一直和我说 Claude 封号严重，尤其是一些非官方渠道，风险真的很大。 而且我之前冲了两千多的某平台（88Code），一直拖欠退款，我也一直在找有没有一种方案，能够做到： 稳定 安全 不掺水 体验接近原生 Claude 随着 Claude Opus-4.6 模型的发布，我最近又刷到了 ZenMux。 这个平台我其实去年 10 月左右就见过一次，当时它出圈的点很特别： 它不是单纯提供模型调用，而是定位为一个 “企业级大模型聚合平台”，并且提供了一个非常有辨识度的能力：AI 模型保险服务。 当时我只是注册了账号，没有深入用。 最近偶然发现 ZenMux 竟然上线了月卡订阅（参考图1）。 我去问了一下，得到的信息是： $20 的订阅大概能用到 $100 - $200 的额度范围 Max 订阅大概是 Pro 的 6 倍 如果按这个比例算下来，月订阅价格大概仅仅比官方贵了约 20% 左右。 但换来的好处是： 体验更稳定 使用成本更可 对外部风险更有缓冲（尤其适合需要稳定输出的人） 为什么我愿意试？核心是它的“AI 模型保险服务” 这里要重点说明一下： ZenMux 的“模型保险”并不是“给 API 买稳定保险”，也不是你额外交保费那种逻辑。 它的官方定位更准确是： 通过保险赔付数据建立产品数据飞轮，不断完善 AI 应用效果。 目前上线的赔付维度主要包括： 内容生成不符合预期 high latency（高延迟） 也就是说，它的思路更偏产品化： 用“赔付机制”去推动平台不断优化整体模型体验。 流量数据参考： 我用 AITDK 查了一下 ZenMux 的流量： 月访问量在 40w 左右（参考图2） 这也侧面说明：它不是那种突然冒出来的小站，至少是有人在用、有一定体量的。 所以我先买了 $100 的 Max 月卡做测评 这次上月卡，我个人觉得是一个利好事件。 多出来的那点成本，就当我买了一份“稳定保障”和“体验保障”。 我已经先购买了 $100 的 Max 月卡来进行测评，支付宝实际花了不到 700。 接下来我会深度使用两天，然后回评论区更新真实体验反馈： （体验测评在评论区↓） 如果你也想试 如果你也想购买，可以用这个邀请链接： zenmux.ai/invite/14CR9W 会有： 25% 的额外充值奖励 我也会得到 5 美刀奖励（回一下血😂）
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市场这次其实已经把答案写在盘面上了。
一个很容易被忽略、但极其关键的细节是：新华社发布习川通话公告的时间是 21:41，而就在这个时间点，黄金价格几乎是同步开始下跌的。不是事后解释，而是实时反应。
这就说明，市场对这次中美元首通话的解读非常明确——不是风险升级，而是地缘风险的边际降温。
如果市场认为台海或中东局势要走向失控，那黄金在 5100 一线面对的应该是突破，而不是掉头。但现实恰恰相反：价格在关键压力位选择了顺势回落，说明避险溢价正在被主动挤出。
把时间线往前拉，这个逻辑就更清楚了。
2 月 3 日，绍伊古光速访华；
随后，习普视频会晤，就二战成果、国际秩序和重大热点问题进行协调；
紧接着，习川通话，台湾问题被直接抬到“中美关系中最重要的问题”；
再然后，新华社确认通话的时间点，黄金当场转跌。
中俄、中美，上三常在极短时间内完成高密度沟通，本身就是一个强烈信号：这是在做风险管控，而不是战争动员。
在这样的背景下，再去看伊朗问题，其实答案已经呼之欲出。至少在短期内，伊朗方向打不起来的概率是显著上升的。不是因为矛盾消失了，而是因为失控型升级不符合任何一方的利益，而大国已经提前把“底线”对齐了。
黄金这波下跌，也并不是什么意外砸盘。地缘避险需求下降是基本面理由，而 5100 一线恰好又是前高与心理压力位，多头早已有兑现空间。宏观叙事给了方向，技术结构给了位置，时间点给了触发器，于是行情顺势走完这一段。
与此同时，另一条线已经悄然启动——市场开始定价“中美关系重新进入可交易状态”。
大豆的异动不是偶然。CBOT 大豆率先飙升，本质上是在提前押注：一旦台海风险边际降温，最先恢复的、也是最安全的交换筹码，一定是农产品。对川普来说，用贸易换稳定是极其划算的买卖：农产品、原油、矿物大单既能稳住红州基本盘，又能压通胀、提就业，为中期选举铺路；而对市场来说，只要这种交易“可能性”重新出现，就已经足够下注。
所以这可能并不是“台湾已经被交易”，而是台湾问题第一次被市场当成“可以谈、可以换、可以阶段性降温”的变量来定价。这本身，就是一个结构性变化。
风险没有消失，但失控风险正在被压低。
而在金融市场里，这一点，已经足够改变资产的运行方向了。
TraderS | 缺德道人@Trader_S18
川普在自己的Truthsocial上也更新了通话内容，4月访华对他非常重要，毕竟从去年九三阅兵之前就一直在传他想访华的信息了，只是当时双方还处在关税战中，很多问题没有谈拢。相信这次访华之前能取得不少成果，而且访华前后都会是中美蜜月期，这段时间国际形势相对也会比较稳定，毕竟只要中美不打起来世界就不会有大动荡。
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CryptoPenguin retweetledi
Will be interested to follow this. Agree the biggest funds have been slow to adapt to AI, not because they are complacent, but because there hasn't been a clear alpha signal from large language models (yet). LLMs are trained on a giant web scrape and can correctly complete quantitative tasks about 75% of the time..."unreliable world calculator" isn't necessarily a tool that has the big quant firms shaking in their boots, even though there are elements of the investment research process where LLMs can be highly useful.
Fwiw, large quant funds also generally capture small gross alphas (single digits) that they produce into impressive ROE with incredible amounts of leverage & intense focus on slippage, fed with massive computing & data budgets. That's a pretty hard incumbent to unseat if you are "two guys and a swarm of agents", but good luck! (makes the task of unseating Bloomberg look like child's play)
The much bigger opportunity is to help fundamental investors become more "quanty" by regaining some of the stacked alpha into the fundamental process that quants have eating for the last 10+ years. Building the "Iron Man" suit that becomes an AI Native operating system about both internal & external data (i.e. a swarm of agents can't walk the floor of a tradeshow or attend the JPM HC conference). No one has really done this yet, because it is an incredibly difficult, but incredibly high ROI task if done right.
Ben Lang@benln
Y Combinator's 2026 request for startups:
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CryptoPenguin retweetledi
$GOOG has $170b of OCF growing like 10-20% a year they can throw around at compute to force OAI to do giant fundraising every year which they can’t do forever.
Kinda smart to throw their weight around now tbh. Should probably max the fuck out of capex for like 3-4 years just to fuck the Twink.
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这两天BTC暴跌的血腥真相复盘
前天 BTC 砸到75000 美元，全网都在哀嚎“牛市结束”。我复盘了整整 一天半，加上华尔街这两天各种新闻采访放出的烟雾弹，结合华尔街最新披露的 ETF 资金流向，真相令人背脊发凉。
有人说是美联储鹰派言论，有人说是技术性回调。
看浅了。
这根本不是宏观利空，而是监管层与华尔街联手做的一次“带电”压力测试——测试在切断离岸流动性（币安）的情况下，合规管道（Coinbase/ETF）能否独立承接抛压。
现在的每一次反弹不是自愈，是“体外循环”系统接管成功的信号。
线索一：丝绸之路的“精准诱饵”
链上数据不会撒谎。前天晚上 Arkham 监控到，美国政府控制的丝绸之路钱包（bc1qn 开头）突然苏醒。
这不仅仅是早前那 300 多万美元的小额异动，更关键的是一笔通过中间地址流向 Coinbase Prime (33Tgp) 的大额测试。
美国政府早不动、晚不动，偏偏选在流动性最薄弱的周末，且在 IBIT 出现历史性流出的次日动手？
这就是“精准诱饵”。
他们在制造人为的流动性恐慌，逼迫散户交出筹码，同时测试 Coinbase Prime 在极端压力下的承接能力。结果显示：币安市场扛不住压力，但合规通道抗住了。
线索二：IBIT 的“明修栈道，暗度陈仓”
看公开数据，你会觉得是灾难：1 月 30 日，贝莱德（IBIT）录得自上市以来最大的单日净流出，高达 5.28 亿美元。
但这正是华尔街最狡猾的地方。
你看的是“场内 ETF”的流出（散户恐慌割肉），但我盯着的是 Coinbase Prime 的 OTC 场外数据。
在 IBIT 账面流出的同时，Coinbase Prime 的 OTC 交易量却创下季度新高，尤其是当天 75,000 插针的瞬间，买盘极其汹涌。
这意味着什么？
这意味着贝莱德在场内“顺势砸盘”制造恐慌，吓出散户的带血筹码；右手却在场外暗池（Dark Pool）大举鲸吞。
左手倒右手，筹码完成了从“离岸黑名单”到“合规白名单”的血腥迁移。
线索三：定价权的“午夜易手”
这是最致命的信号：
昨晚暴跌期间，CME（芝商所）的比特币期货持仓量（OI）正式反超币安。
而且，离岸交易所（币安）的期货价格，比 CME 一度出现了整整 400 美元的负溢价。
这种负溢价是极其罕见的“逃命信号”：大资金正在不计成本地逃离离岸平台，疯狂涌入 CME 做多。
更为打脸的是 2 月 1 日的链上数据：Hyperliquid 单日清算额高达 9.04 亿美元，竟是币安（1.47 亿美元）的 6 倍之多。
这说明旧王不仅丢了定价权，连最核心的“赌场流水”都在被去中心化对手降维打击。
市场正在用脚投票——USDT 是用来逃命的，美元合规通道才是用来抄底的。
定价权已经不在那个“小偷帝国”手里了，它已经被收归纽约。
不要被反弹迷惑：手术刀正在切入
现在的回升不是牛市回归，而是华尔街在确认“体外循环系统”稳定后的维稳。
监管层确认了：即便 IBIT 单日流出 5 亿，即便制造 75k 的极端恐慌，只要 Coinbase Prime 的暗池托底，BTC 的核心骨架就不会崩塌。
这给了他们最后的底气。
接下来，如果看到币安出现提币延迟或系统维护，千万别惊讶，那是手术刀切下去的瞬间。
你的对手盘是谁？
华尔街那群人制造恐慌（利用丝绸之路转移和 ETF 流出数据），就是为了拿到尽可能多的带血筹码。
这不再是那个靠“修改代码”就能左右局势的草莽时代了。
这是华尔街的主场。
73000–75000美元是机构利用“暗池”构筑的钢铁防线。
拿好你的私钥，远离杠杆，远离任何有“黑箱操作”前科的平台。
旧王（CZ 与 何一）的“小偷人生”即将谢幕，新王已经登基。
中文
CryptoPenguin retweetledi
What does the token actually do?
This has been one of the most fundamental unanswered questions in DeFi since the beginning.
Does the token control governance?
Does it have any claim on the treasury?
Does it receive protocol revenue via buybacks or dividends?
Today, we launched Token Rights on DefiLlama.
Token Rights gives you a clear, standardized view of what a token entitles holders to: revenue, treasury, governance, or none of the above.
We’ve rolled this out across two dozen protocols, including additional context like historical governance discussions around token rights and whether teams raised equity separately from the token.
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CryptoPenguin retweetledi
CryptoPenguin retweetledi
This is wild! Scientists used liposuction to suck out ordinary white fat cells...then used CRISPR to turn into “beige” fat cells, which voraciously consume calories to make heat.
Then, they implanted them near tumors the way plastic surgeons inject fat from one part of the body to plump up another.
The fat cells scarfed up all the nutrients, starving most of the tumor cells to death.
These cells wiped out breast, colon, pancreatic, and prostate cancers by depleting shared resources.
They even used patient fat from mastectomies to target their own breast cancer.
Why Fat?: Easy to harvest (liposuction), edit, and reimplant safely – biocompatible, no migration risks.
Full article below 👇
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CryptoPenguin retweetledi
Interview with a $MSFT employee on the AI model race and $GOOGL's competitive advantage:
1. He thinks that $GOOGL, because of TPUs, has a 5-20% cost advantage on inference compared to other model providers that have to lean on $NVDA. According to estimates, TPUs are roughly 4x better at performance per dollar for inference than an H100.
2. In his view, model producers are overfitting models to benchmarks to show that »they are still in the race«, but the actual day-to-day performance for use cases may be very different.
3. As AI model providers reach parity, $GOOGL, according to him, will have a higher profit margin, because of their own chips. He believes this competitive advantage will persist & $GOOGL will earn higher profits per token.
4. In the case of an AI bubble pop or debt getting more expensive and funding running out, he sees $MSFT, $AMZN, and $GOOGL cannibalizing smaller players. He believes that in that scenario, the landscape would change significantly, and you would see improved profitability across the board, as hyperscalers already have data centers and chips.
found on @AlphaSenseInc
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@sassal0x It takes a special kind of long term thinking to turn a 5-second action into a 5-year project
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@thedefivillain What happens when it goes below mnav 1? It stops being able to accumulate more btc and trades like a close ended ETF and likely would trade at discount unless mstr sells btc and performs share buyback
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Why do people buy $MSTR?
Because the whole structure is optimized for one single goal: increasing BTC-per-share
In other words, if the strategy works as intended, then MSTR mechanically outperforms BTC over a long timeframe
(you know, it's that thing that basically no altcoin is able to do)
That does NOT mean that you can't have BTC outperform MSTR over a shorter time horizon: when MSTR is trading at 3x mNAV as in November 2024, then its potential downside vs BTC is quite large.
That's what we've seen in 2025, which was a year of mNAV compression.
But -- unless you are outright bearish on BTC -- one should get increasingly bullish on MSTR as mNAV approaches 1x, instead of becoming increasingly bearish
Because the downside in BTC terms is getting significantly muted at 1x vs 2x-3x
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