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Csaba

Csaba

@csapagyi

Katılım Haziran 2013
118 Takip Edilen59 Takipçiler
Csaba
Csaba@csapagyi·
@aleabitoreddit For $SIVE I would expect a drop on earnings this friday from ppl looking at p/e.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Interesting photonics selloff today on no news? $LITE down -4.95% $AAOI down -4.85% $SIVE down -14.8% $SOI down -5.73% $AXTI down -8.13% $IQE down -12.13% I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis). Just tends to be very volatile on the way up. Surprised about $AAOI though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD or $NVDA agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside. $SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week. I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.
Serenity tweet mediaSerenity tweet media
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Csaba
Csaba@csapagyi·
When you just released your latest AI PR and suddenly start getting notifications
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Csaba
Csaba@csapagyi·
@pmarca Inaccurate, there are actually some rails there.
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Csaba
Csaba@csapagyi·
@SergeZaka If it's so bad why you have to lie with the colors?
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Dr. Serge Zaka (Dr. Zarge)
Dr. Serge Zaka (Dr. Zarge)@SergeZaka·
On peut le dire clairement maintenant : nous nous dirigeons vers l’un des événements thermiques les plus spectaculaires jamais observés en France tout mois confondus, totalement hors du champ statistique de ce qui a été connu jusqu’à présent en mai. C’est absolument délirant : ➡️Le record national de chaleur pour un mois de mai pourrait être battu, avec plus de 36-37°C attendus en France pendant PLUSIEURS JOURS. ➡️Les 35°C pourraient remonter jusqu’à la moitié nord du pays, tandis que la Bretagne vivrait une situation totalement hors normes (il ne serait pas étonnant d'y approcher les 34°C !!). Nous sommes à +15°C au-dessus des normes sur la façade Atlantique ! ➡️Lundi, mardi et mercredi pourraient devenir, de très loin, les journées les plus chaudes jamais observées en France en mai, avec plus de 30°C sur la quasi-totalité du territoire. ➡️Des records mensuels pourraient tomber plusieurs jours de suite, y compris sur des stations centenaires, tant l’épisode s’annonce intense et durable : jusqu’à 10 jours possibles. ➡️On est vraiment à la limite des seuils de canicules et de vague de chaleur : nous sommes en mai, au printemps !
Dr. Serge Zaka (Dr. Zarge) tweet mediaDr. Serge Zaka (Dr. Zarge) tweet media
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Csaba
Csaba@csapagyi·
@athuinvests "expect to talk about in march" so 4 months old video. useless spam
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Athu Invests
Athu Invests@athuinvests·
$SIVE CEO confirmed that major brands are in talks over their tech for co-packed optics & pluggables. The momentum is building. Watch this. 🔥👀
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Csaba
Csaba@csapagyi·
@aleabitoreddit So it's more about them acquiring and not them being acquired?
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
If people don’t realize why I’m so interested in $SIVE M&A. Sivers likely customers were: Lightmatter when they were tiny -> became $4B+ company. Lightelligence when they were tiny -> became $10B+ company. Ayar when they were tiny -> now funded by $NVDA, $AMD, and others. Celestial when they were tiny -> bought by $MRVL and became their growth vector. Probably would be valued $10B+ standalone. I’m extremely sure Sivers knows what to acquire for optical IP. They were just stuck in a catch-22 and lacked the funding to do so originally, despite owning one of the most valuable laser chokepoints. Future NASDAQ listing and recent growth unlocked downstream IP acquisition potential now.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

$SIVE is nominating two new board members today. It's very highly telling since the newcomers have acquisition backgrounds from: -> Head of M&A at Ericsson / Advisor at Verdane, focusing on M&A / Deutsche Bank. -> CFO from HMS / Axholmen and Celerant Consulting around M&A/strategy. The bull case with $SIVE was to start from the laser source: Then speedrun TAM expansion down the pluggable/CPO stack through IP acquisitions, and use $FN + others for final assembly to keep things capex light. If they want to capture more overall revenue during the CPO/Photonics supercycle, following the $LITE playbook. So, it's a healthy indicator they're heading down the right track nominating two M&A focused people. Only idea to float out is to capital raise with private placement or convertibles with US institutions after NASDAQ listing. Since Swedish markets are still very thin and Sivers can get better terms for larger acquisitions... after new US liquidity reprices of MC/shares on listing. (Sivers has that recent bridge round in the meantime) Larger US institutions are likely interested in entering new very material $SIVE positions as well once Sivers passes some US institutions listing mandates.

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Csaba
Csaba@csapagyi·
@Packer19733 @aleabitoreddit If low earners don't pay taxes and instead companies and high earners pay the majority of them, they would do a much better job enforcing what the government spends it on.
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Want To Be Day trader
Want To Be Day trader@Packer19733·
@aleabitoreddit I totally disagree. The government has proven many times over they cannot control what they spend and what they authorize. Billions and billions are wasted annually. Fixing the waste will lower tax burdens for all.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
“Jeff Bezos says low earners in the US should pay zero tax” I actually agree this this with some nuance on implementation: Low earners should be allowed to deduct all their living expenses before paying tax. Just like how the wealthy are able to write off a lot of things as business expenses or tax sheltered structures: Majority of “living costs” for low income citizens come from rent, healthcare, food, gas, car loans/college tuition, kids, etc. Even after all that they’re paying tax on their original income. Feels a little stupid to have low income earners owe money after just trying to live.
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Alex Wiggin
Alex Wiggin@realalexwiggin·
@aleabitoreddit Does that include him? 😉 He doesn't earn any income probably.
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Csaba
Csaba@csapagyi·
@aleabitoreddit All those rules would just create loopholes and administrative burdens. Just let them pay no tax on their earned income. 90% is gonna spend it on living.
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Daniel
Daniel@growing_daniel·
Today claude code is idiot and codex is genius. Every day is different. Tomorrow, who knows?
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Bryan Johnson
Bryan Johnson@bryan_johnson·
We now have a female Bryan Johnson. It’s Kate Tolo. She will become the most measured female in history. +$2 million of spend per year + Developing a female-specific protocol + Sharing everything for free To start, she will spend 3 months mapping her baseline. Men, in contrast, can get their baseline done in 1 or 2 weeks. + 3 months for baseline measurement + across 4 time points per cycle + doing the same thing every day + a dedicated full-time medical team For context on the extensiveness of measurement, during the past 5 years, we’ve collected 1.5 billion data points on my body. I suspect Kate will exceed that given technology has improved since I started. The goal is to create a repeatable waveform of hundreds of life-critical biomarkers. Once the baseline is acquired, she will begin interventions. We will try to answer practically useful questions and share all of the data + learnings for free. Can fertility be improved? + Should women cold plunge? + Can PMS symptoms be alleviated? + What should a female sauna protocol be? + Should dosage change throughout the month? + What keeps a cycle regular? + Does the body need more iron, magnesium, or protein at specific phases? + Should women fast? + Should recovery protocol change by phase? + What's the earliest detectable signal of perimenopause? + Can perimenopause be slowed? + How is cognitive load & mood affected? + Does stress impact men and women the same? Kate has suspected endometriosis. 10% of all women do. We will try to tackle this too. I am excited for all of the surprising things we will hopefully uncover. Unlike me, Kate does not have the innate desire to wake up at 4:30am and do six hours of longevity therapies. She’s the cofounder of Blueprint, building in the trenches with me since day one. She understands the game and how hard it is. In many ways, this is a sacrifice for her. She is a creative person, going from a life of freedom and spontaneity to a rigid protocol. Traditionally, RCTs have been viewed as the gold standard. But RCTs have underserved women. The FDA banned women from clinical trials for 16 years (1977 to 1993), and most "medicine for women" is still medicine tested in men. Demanding RCT-only evidence for women's health is demanding evidence that doesn't exist. There is not enough practical scientific literature for women to reference only RCTs. It leaves half the population without a path to know what to do. N=1 medicine is gaining ground and picking up where RCTs specifically fail. Individual science experiments give us signals that answer what to do on a day-to-day basis. This is even more important for women. If you’re new to Kate and my world, I want you to understand that we have your back. Our intentions are to be a sturdy, reliable force in your life. To care for your best interest as we’d care for our own. We want what’s best for you and our loyalty is to your existence. It’s pretty cool to be living in a time when we may be the first generation to not die. I’m not suggesting immortality, but lifespans so long that we stop thinking about lifespans. At the end of the day, the one thing we each care about more than anything else is one more breath. I’m proud of Kate for taking on this responsibility. It’s painful, exhausting and costly. The beginning of the world’s first n=2.
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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
JUST IN: Andrej Karpathy announces he’s joined Anthropic.
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Csaba
Csaba@csapagyi·
Being against data centers is the next foreign psyop. I see top comments under unrelated instagram posts. Seems manufactured.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
@Blinklebloop Yes I literally have to hide 20-30 of those comments every single post of mine nowadays.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
How are so many of these large scamming/impersonator accounts allowed to exist on X? They just copy your username, block the original author so you can't find them, then manipulate the algorithm for their main accounts. Then any accidental view algorithm boosts their main account. It's a lose lose situation. You report them, X doesn't seem to care. You report them, their main account gets more impressions.
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Csaba
Csaba@csapagyi·
@MartinShkreli @InTheAssembly @nikitabier Not your fault, it's bad on UX when showing replies. The reply might be worth reading but you're shown the original post first which might just be trash.
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The Assembly
The Assembly@InTheAssembly·
🚨 Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F just dropped Check this out, this is absolutely INSANE. Every major name. All brand new this quarter: SMH VanEck Semi ETF – $2.04B NVDA – $1.57B ORCL – $1.07B AVGO – $1.01B AMD – $969M MU – $584M TSM – $535M ASML – $494M INTC – $159M Last quarter he held a $747M bullish call on Intel. THIS QUARTER IT IS A PUT. He also cut his CoreWeave call from $774M down to $141M FULL EXITS: Lumentum, Coherent, Tower Semiconductor, Cipher Mining, Hut 8 What he kept and added: The bitcoin miners turning themselves into AI data centers. Applied Digital, Bitfarms, CleanSpark, IREN, Riot. Plus a brand new stake in Hive Digital. The thesis writes itself. Long the companies pouring the concrete for the data centers. Short the chips going inside them. The man who wrote the manifesto on AGI just bet against the semiconductors building it. We’ve been in this game for a very long time, and when we make a new move, we’ll share it here. Turn on notifications so you don’t miss the signal. This is VERY important. Many people will regret not following us.
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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
NEW: Former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman says his OpenClaw AI agent watches him through a home camera to make sure he drinks enough water.
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Csaba
Csaba@csapagyi·
@justalexoki It wasn't luck, you were willed into existence by your ancestors
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taoki
taoki@justalexoki·
this is an argument i will never get. "it's deserved" i didn't do shit to get born here. it's not deserved. it's luck. and most people are unlucky as hell
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