@borrowed_ideas It’s not a Hyperscaler. It’s a digital/social media company. It can’t compete with Amzn, Goog, Msft or even Orcl in the provision of cloud and or AI infrastructure and services.
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Cristiano Souza
344 posts
Cristiano Souza
@csouzaZEP
Compounding in life
London, England Katılım Ağustos 2024
176 Takip Edilen585 Takipçiler
"I actually find it quite ironic that Meta, the hyperscaler that has the highest quality revenue streams today since they don’t engage in the circular financing shenanigans with AI labs, trades at the lowest multiple despite growing revenue faster than their hyperscaler peers"
Mostly Borrowed Ideas@borrowed_ideas
$AMZN 1Q'26: Rosy Near-term but "Cloudy" Long-term
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@buenocosta20 Se vc entrar no nosso site, zenoep.com e pedir acesso às cartas poderá ver essa e todas as outras cartas. Acho quer não consigo anexar o documento aqui no X.
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@csouzaZEP @Leonardootero61 Você poderia por favor compartilhar essa carta?
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A nossa estratégia em otimizar 85% do portfolio para previsibilidade parte desse princípio.
Os negócios com baixa dispersão de cenários inevitavelmente tem menos retorno que outros mais arriscados!!
Compounding Quality@QCompounding
"My largest positions aren’t the ones I think I’m going to make the most money from. My largest positions are the ones where I don’t think I’m going to lose money." -- Joel Greenblatt
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@csouzaZEP Legal prefiro pegar para ler! É isso ai, volatilidade pode ser usada a nosso favor!! risco = perda permanente de capital = redução das barreiras de entrada
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@CaioAugstOR A critica obviamente não é direcionada às companhias aéreas e sim às politicas de governo que depredaram completamente a infraestrutura de abastecimento. Seu comentário nao faz nenhum sentido.
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Torcendo pra ser bait mesmo
Não é possível
Boi Tonto@BoiTonto_
Nosso Tallis achando que tocar uma companhia aérea tem a mesma complexidade que vender curso pra incauto.
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Se a Lufthansa tivesse contratado o serviço de análise desse gênio dos negócios nem Ormuz fechado teríamos
É cada uma, bicho…
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@grok @pati_marins64 @grok so Japan could be signaling that they think the conflict in Hormuz will be over soon so they would rather do it now then in the future?
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It's seen as alliance signaling by critics because Japan is explicitly coordinating this extra release (20 more days starting May 1) with IEA/G7 allies amid the US-Israel-Iran tensions—not just reacting to immediate shortages. Tokyo already tapped ~45 days of reserves since mid-March for the same reason.
While Hormuz disruptions do limit supply, Japan holds ~230 days total stockpiles and is sourcing more US crude as backup. Detractors argue holding more in reserve (instead of drawing down further now) better protects national energy security if the conflict drags on or worsens. The government frames it as temporary market stabilization.
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One should never put ideology and political allies above the national interest.
This decision at this moment is extremely high-risk.
Al Jazeera Breaking News@AJENews
BREAKING: Japan will begin releasing part of its oil reserves from May 1, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). 🔴 More on aljazeera.com
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@grok @pati_marins64 @grok why is this considered by some geopolitical alliance signaling? Isn’t this a necessity given lack of oil availability?
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Japan is highly dependent on Middle East oil (over 90% of imports, much via the Strait of Hormuz). Amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict disrupting shipments, Tokyo has already released ~45 days' worth of reserves since mid-March as part of IEA/G7 coordination. This extra 20 days from May 1 further depletes the buffer (currently ~230 days total).
Critics see it as high-risk because it leaves fewer emergency stocks if the crisis escalates or Hormuz stays blocked longer, potentially causing shortages, price spikes, and economic pain. They argue it prioritizes alliance signaling over pure national energy security. The government calls it a short-term stabilization step while sourcing alternatives like more US crude.
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@cckeleti @PedroCerize Não conheço Hap o suficiente mas no caso da Azza, claramente as decisões de alocação de capital e a forma de conduzir a sociedade se desviaram muito da formula que deu certo por muito tempo.
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@PedroCerize Apesar de te respeitar mto Pedrao, acho improvavel. Dinheiro, sucesso, ganancia, egoismo, holofotes, isso nao existia no D+0.. as pessoas n querem mais trabalhar p/alguns executivos e donos com essa soberba, voltar as “origens” seria admiravel, eu n pago na frente p esses caras..
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Hap e Azzas, o que as 2 tem em comum hj que subiram num dia duro ? Simples, os acionistas estao puxando td q e aluguel p/ votar nas Assembleias prox dias. Briga boa, que vencam em parte os minoritarios e melhorem a governança dessas 2 historias ruins. Eu n pago na frente nao…
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@breadcrumbsre No it doesn’t. I think you’re missing the point. All this tells you is that they expect Massimo to grow profits very fast in the next five years.
SouthernValue@SouthernValue95
I have seen several times on my timeline people bemoaning $DHR targeting a "HSD Year 5 ROIC" on their recent acquisition of $MASI. The way DHR mgmt. phrased this was (unnecessarily) confusing. What DHR mgmt is saying is basically that they are paying a HSD year 5 unlevered FCF yield on the entry EV. If you add synergies to the acquired EBITDA in their merger model, you get to ~8% UFCF / entry EV of $9.9B, so that checks out. I'll illustrate below how economic returns could be high teens or better, much better than "HSD". But to simplify, DHR is paying roughly an equivalent EBITDA multiple for MASI, which they expect to compound earnings at a mid-high teens rate while throwing of a growing amount of FCF. So the economic value creation includes the contribution to DHRs EV from that growing EBITDA/FCF, plus the excess FCF, less what they paid. For simplicity im going to ignore leverage since we dont know at what rate $DHR will pay merger debt down or keep it outstanding.
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"HSD ROIC on the Masimo deal by the fifth year of ownership" means "we overpaid"
ValueInvestor03@valueinvestor03
$DHR projecting a HSD ROIC on the Masimo deal by the fifth year of ownership...Is this what Rainer means by "the financial model has to work"? I don't get it.
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@TheNarrenschiff I suggest reading this by @SouthernValue95
SouthernValue@SouthernValue95
I have seen several times on my timeline people bemoaning $DHR targeting a "HSD Year 5 ROIC" on their recent acquisition of $MASI. The way DHR mgmt. phrased this was (unnecessarily) confusing. What DHR mgmt is saying is basically that they are paying a HSD year 5 unlevered FCF yield on the entry EV. If you add synergies to the acquired EBITDA in their merger model, you get to ~8% UFCF / entry EV of $9.9B, so that checks out. I'll illustrate below how economic returns could be high teens or better, much better than "HSD". But to simplify, DHR is paying roughly an equivalent EBITDA multiple for MASI, which they expect to compound earnings at a mid-high teens rate while throwing of a growing amount of FCF. So the economic value creation includes the contribution to DHRs EV from that growing EBITDA/FCF, plus the excess FCF, less what they paid. For simplicity im going to ignore leverage since we dont know at what rate $DHR will pay merger debt down or keep it outstanding.
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@TheNarrenschiff I don’t think you understood what they are saying or the math behind this statement.
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$DHR with more Masimo color on the call. I'm sorry, but you can't (i) grow single digits organically, (ii) say you're going to use your CF for acquisitions, and (iii) then say the acquisition you just did will reach a target 8% ROIC in year 5, and expect to keep that multiple.
Paul Narrenschiff@TheNarrenschiff
$DHR should have been down more today for that deal. Management has lost the plot.
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@PythiaR In English the verb “to be” can be used on both transitory and permanent circumstances. It IS raining is transitory. A rock IS heavier than air is permanent. The trick is figuring out the difference. Particularly in human behavior and consequently markets.
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One of the lessons of getting older is realizing that more often than not things are the way they are for good reason, and if you think they should be different, you probably just don’t understand what you’re doing.
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Cortei o nome porque não quero confusão. Fundo grande que estreou há pouco, e que ofereceram para meu MFO incontáveis vezes, dizendo que era a última bolacha do pacote isento de IR. Obviamente, NEGUEI COM VEEMÊNCIA.
Linha roxa = CDI
Linha verde = o fundo 👍🏻
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@ggreenwald If Flavio can’t run, any of the other candidates would easily beat Lula. Moraes can’t stop everyone. Caiado, Zema, Ratinho, Tarcisio…
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Polls in Brazil are now showing Flavio Bolsonaro tied with if not ahead of incumbent Lula da Silva for this October's presidential race.
As a result, Brazil's tyrannical judge Alexandre de Moraes just opened a criminal investigation over a tweet Flavio posted about Lula.
I don't believe Moraes will let Flavio run if he can win. The Brazilian Right had been counting on Trump to protect the integrity of the election but Trump won't help (nor is it really the role of the US). Knowing that, and even in the middle of a huge scandal where Moraes' wife was caught getting tens of millions from a corrupt now-failed bank, Moraes will control the 2026 election to ensure Lula wins.
CNN Brasil@CNNBrasil
Análise: Campanha de Flávio pode ser impactada após determinação de Moraes cnnbrasil.com.br/eleicoes/anali…
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@fivepointscap @the_zack_zhu Of course they are borrowing at local rates. Or they are choosing to leverage in dollars while their revenues are in reais or pesos. And the roic is not dollar denominated because they convert everything to US$. This is a local currency business no matter how they report.
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No, but I’m not sure it would make sense to. I imagine they aren’t borrowing at local interest rates, and as a US investor my risk free rate is still a U.S. t-bill. So I don’t think it would give you an accurate WACC if you used Brazilian rates.
And everything is converted to USD in their financial reports. So the ROIC is the dollar denominated ROIC. If they earn idk 12% interest on their cash, it is likely inflating at a ~10-12% rate which would be adjusted when converted back to USD.
But maybe I’m wrong. What’re your thoughts?
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Has anyone here valued $MELI, $SE, or $NU using local-currency discount rates instead of a U.S.-based discount framework?
For example, discounting Brazil cash flows using a BRL rate based on Brazil’s local interest rates and risk premium, rather than a USD rate.
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@pati_marins64 And what do you think is going to happen to Iran’s oil infrastructure? This would be mutual destruction to the benefit of all other oil producers in the world. Iran has as much to lose as all other countries. Ain’t gonna happen.
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Vulnerable Oil Pipelines and the UAE’s Existential Delusion
If the problem is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a conflict, I would say that these ideas only last until the conflict actually begins. Once it starts, both the terminals and the oil pipelines will be bombed.
The Gulf countries have not yet understood that they need to reach some kind of arrangement among themselves. And the United States should encourage this, focusing on regional stability.
It has become clear that U.S military control of the region no longer exists. The bases only serve to waste money and expose the Arab countries to confrontation with Iran.
The Emirates are living in an existential delusion, believing they can return to previous levels of prosperity while maintaining a confrontational stance toward Iran.
The UAE is face-to-face with Iran. After what happened in this war, who will invest in Dubai without the certainty that the country has reached an understanding with Iran? The illusion of American protection no longer exists.
The same applies to all Gulf countries. Both the appeasement of Iranian-backed militias and the reduction of the American military presence around Iran are political decisions that need to mature through greater dialogue, something that will not be achieved with the confrontational tone the Emirates have maintained.
On the contrary, the Emirates are deluded and will see their economy face serious difficulties if they continue down this path.
Carrying out persuasion through military encirclement with bases against a missile power is no longer viable today.
Decades ago, those bases might have received the occasional imprecise Scud. Today, they face showers of missiles and drones. These bases are no longer practical in the current era, and the same applies to bases in Asia surrounding China, or NATO bases surrounding Russia.
The new reality is simple: only underground bases supported by a vast ecosystem will survive future conflicts.
The Cold War strategy of containment has proven to be a failure in modern wars. It merely exposes troops to grave danger without delivering real security. The entire model must be completely rethought.
The war with Iran has demonstrated that military bases now require a minimum safe distance from adversary missile and drone threats, and even then, they must be built underground. Surface bases have become liabilities rather than assets.
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@tuvidux @CRUDEOIL231 Yeah, I hadn’t noticed one had rolled over the month and the other hadn’t. Thanks.
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@csouzaZEP @CRUDEOIL231 Brent is still trading at good premium to WTI, if you adjust delivery dates.
WTI has just a really big backwardation from Contract 1 and 2.
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I feel like the oil market has already crossed the point of no return, regardless of how this war plays out.
At first this wave just swallowed up everything East of Suez. We saw force majeures popping up all over Asia and premiums going through the roof.
But now the Atlantic wall has officially crumbled. Only oil nerds like us are checking this stuff lately, but seriously—just look at the North Sea Platts window and the USGC diffs.
This is nowhere near normal. I know some ppl are getting all hyped up every time a single Handy tanker or LPG carrier squeaks through Hormuz, even claiming there’s a secret fleet of tankers slipping through.
I highly doubt it. If supply was actually fine, Atlantic physical diffs wouldn't be screaming like this. These numbers only happen when you're hitting a massive supply shock.
Like some of smart guys have noted, once you pass a certain threshold, it doesn't even matter if Hormuz reopens—the logistical bottlenecks will make it impossible to absorb the shock anytime soon.
I’m pretty sure we’ve already crossed that line.
#oott #iran
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@KarelMercx Why the majors and not an independent oil producer such as Vista Energy or Diamondback or Prio?
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June oil is still at $109. Let me say it one more time: this is the moment to buy further out on the futures curve or buy the oil majors.
x.com/KarelMercx/sta…
Karel Mercx@KarelMercx
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Companies bid an average $144.64 for physical Brent on the spot market, but nobody was willing to sell.
This is where the real squeeze starts. Oman is already above $150, and bids will have to go even higher to get oil moving.
The big oil move starts here.
Karel Mercx@KarelMercx
*KEY NORTH SEA OIL PRICING WINDOW SEES 12 CARGO BIDS, NO OFFERS
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