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Vanessa Li
935 posts

Vanessa Li
@cyvanessali
@yale grad | thinking
San Francisco, CA Katılım Temmuz 2016
632 Takip Edilen2.3K Takipçiler

If Alex Wang was 16, would he be attending this event or would he be at home working his ass off? These events are such a waste
autumnkyoko@akcushman
we're in a bubble if there are enough AI founders in SF for YC to fill up the f*cking chase center. what on earth
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@clairejyz @Lightspeed Congrats! Nice to meet a fellow HKer in tech!
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I'm beyond excited to announce that I’m joining @Lightspeed as a Partner on the early-stage investing team and helping to build everything they're doing in new media.
I've spent the last six years investing in early-stage companies, and the last year building a media platform in parallel. What started as a side quest has reached 350,000+ followers and millions of viewers a month.
For me, investing and storytelling have always been two halves of the same job. This work has put me in rooms with incredible founders, researchers, and operators - many of whom have become close friends, collaborators, and early stage bets. There's so much happening at the frontier right now, and the media platform has given me a way to be in those conversations early (and to bring the people I admire most into a wider audience).
When Lightspeed reached out, we saw the same opportunity. Venture and media are converging, and the next generation of great firms will need to show up differently: reaching founders and builders before they've even started a company, and being the place where people first get excited about what's happening in tech.
With more than $50 billion in AUM, Lightspeed has been building alongside founders at the frontier of technology for decades. It's a firm I've admired for years since I started investing - for its intellectual rigor, its long-term conviction, and the way it approaches company building. I’m excited to join a team that brings real depth and substance to its work, and I hope to bring that same ethos to everything I put out.
Thank you to @ravi_lsvp, @bsomaia , and @Machiz for believing in this vision and trusting me to help build it. I’m so excited to see what we do together.
If you're an early-stage founder, building or thinking about starting something, or just curious about this ecosystem - please reach out. My DMs are open and I’d love to chat!
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World model" can mean a video that looks like Sora, a robot brain, or a set of abstract embeddings. These are completely different things.
Two AI research lineages quietly merged in the last two years to produce this confusion. New piece on what happened:
moe-capital.com/blog-home/the-…
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We’re launching @JudgmentLabs today and announcing $32M in funding.
As AI agents take on more of the work that creates economic value, they generate massive amounts of production data: the clearest record of how they behave with users, software, and the real world.
Judgment builds infrastructure for improving AI agents from production data.
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@alexshander03 @JudgmentLabs so cool! so important to let AI agents have better JUDGEMENT!
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looking for some hot people in san francisco to shoot some insta skits for @ditto_dates
hmu if u r conventionally attractive

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@brainstub @SourishJasti @mollycantillon @Feliciamtang @luci_holland @floguo @LatentsExplored Thank you for having us! It was amazing <3 <3
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Our very first Bread and Butter 🧈
@SourishJasti
@mollycantillon
@Feliciamtang
@cyvanessali
@luci_holland
@ pants 🐈⬛
@floguo
@LatentsExplored


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While I get where he is coming from, this is a reductive argument that misses the nuance that there are thick wrappers and thin wrappers.
1. People who make this argument miss that Harvey and Legora offer similar core product features as ChatGPT or Claude with in my view insufficient differentiation for the legal vertical. They are then repackaged to sound like they are tailored for law. File uploads in projects -> vault. Custom prompts -> workflows. But great tech businesses in the world are built on 1. A great product that provides real value add 2. Great distribution. This sort of argument ignores 1.
2. mikeoss.com went viral was because it managed to replicate Harvey and Legora’s core functions in 2 weeks, with some extra functionality like version control for docs, and a Coding IDE type interface for working across legal docs in a project. Much harder to vibe code great software businesses like Stripe, Google or Revolut in two weeks.
3. Can you use AWS for your payments and CRM out of the box? A law firm can use ChatGPT or Claude enterprise and get most of the value of Harvey and Legora. Claude has the word add-in and Microsoft just introduced its legal focused word add-in as well. Global law firm Freshfields has recently directly announced a partnership with Anthropic, shunning Harvey and Legora. When your suppliers are competing with you in the same vertical with the same product features, you are a reseller.
gabriel@gabriel1
stripe and salesforce are just reselling AWS services
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SF feels designed in a lab to make startups:
- nothing really to do (except code)
- dinner convos become pitch practice
- more dogs than kids
- social status determined by funding amounts
- bars close at 10pm (but GitHub is 24x7)
- “what are you working on?” instead of “how’s the family?”
- nice weather but not too nice
- gender ratio imbalance (odds are good but..)
- only city in the world where it’s a flex to have a mattress on the ground
- pro tizz anti rizz
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Vanessa Li retweetledi

$1,400,000 in one week. On a market about Iran.
How do you make $1M without predicting anything? You buy dollars for 94 cents.
Three days ago I installed ClawdBot. Everyone has been talking about it. I expected another overhyped tool.
Instead, it found me a wallet printing $300K in 24 hours.
Here is what happened.
I gave ClawdBot a simple task: find wallets on Polymarket with profit patterns that do not make sense. Anomalies. Mathematical impossibilities.
First impression of this thing. It actually feels like a real assistant. Open source. Free. Installs in minutes.
But here is the wild part.
It has access to everything on your computer. Reads files. Searches the web. Fixes its own bugs. I asked it to connect to Telegram. It did not work at first. The bot looked at its own logs, found the problem, and fixed it. Without me touching anything.
I needed it to search the web. It said: Give me a Brave Search API key and I will handle it.
I got the key. Gave it to the bot. It connected everything by itself. No manual setup. No config files.
Felt like talking to someone who actually wants to help.
Anyway. Back to the wallet.
ClawdBot returned one address that made me stop scrolling.
This trader opened the same market. US strikes Iran by... More than 30 times. Same market. Over and over.
Total profit: $1,017,000. In seven days.
I thought it was a bug. Checked the blockchain. Real dollars. Real trades.
Profile: @anoin123?via=roovxKu" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@anoin123?via=…
I pulled his entire trade history into a spreadsheet. Three hours later, I finally understood.
He does not care if the US strikes Iran. The outcome is irrelevant to him.
He is running arbitrage.
Remember in school when someone figured out the vending machine gives two sodas for the price of one? Everyone thought it was luck. It was just broken math.
Polymarket is full of broken vending machines.
Here is the strategy in plain English:
Polymarket has dozens of markets about the same event with different dates. US strikes Iran by March. US strikes Iran by April. US strikes Iran by June.
If Iran gets hit in March. The April and June markets also pay out.
But the prices do not always add up correctly.
Sometimes you can buy NO on multiple dates for a total of $0.94. If nothing happens. You get $1. If something happens. One of your NO positions still pays.
Either way: profit.
Buying a guaranteed dollar for 94 cents. That is it. That is the whole game.
He does this 30+ times per week. Same pattern. Same math. Same profit.
$300,000 in 24 hours. Drawing support lines suddenly feels embarrassing.
Let me break down the five arbitrage systems he rotates:
1. Basic Arb
Buy YES and NO on the same market. Total cost: $0.96. One of them pays $1.
Profit: 4 cents per dollar. Zero risk.
2. Mutually Exclusive Arb
Two events. Only one can be true. Buy YES on both for under $1.
One has to win. You pocket the difference.
3. Contradiction Arb
Two markets say opposite things. Buy YES in one, NO in the other.
The market contradicts itself. You take the spread.
4. One-of-Many Arb (his favorite)
Multiple outcomes. Buy NO on several. One event happens. NO on the others pays $1.
Make money on what is inevitable.
5. Must-Happen Arb
Buy YES on all possible outcomes. One must win.
If total cost < $1. Free money.
Prediction is gambling. This is accounting.
Here is what changed for me.
I have been on Polymarket for months. Analyzing debates. Reading polls. Trying to outsmart the crowd.
This guy ignores all of it. He just looks for markets where the math is broken.
And the math breaks every single day.
ClawdBot showed me something else.
It can work proactively now. Send notifications when something important happens. Monitor wallets. Alert me when arbitrage windows open.
I asked it to track this trader entries. Now I get a Telegram ping every time he opens a new position.
Last night at 2:47am: notification. He entered US strikes Iran by April. NO at $0.89.
I did not understand the play at first. Then I checked the other date markets. Total cost of all NO positions: $0.91.
Guaranteed $1 payout. 9% return. Zero prediction.
I copied the position. Woke up this morning +$340.
Not life-changing. But I did not predict anything. I did not analyze anything. I just followed the math.
23,000 people watch this wallet now. Most of them still try to guess if Iran will get hit.
They are playing chess. He is counting the pieces and realizing someone left extra pawns on the board.
12 open markets about the same geopolitical event with different dates.
The prices do not add up to $1.
Somewhere in that gap is free money.
This trader is probably entering a position right now.
Two paths:
Keep predicting. Keep analyzing. Keep feeding money to people who found the broken vending machine.
Or learn the five systems. Find the math errors. Start collecting.
Arbitrage is not about being smarter.
It is about noticing that $1 is on sale for 94 cents.
The sale ends when enough people notice.
Have you checked the prices today?


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