Dan O’Brien
623 posts
Dan O’Brien
@danOBtech
President & COO @TheFuturumGroup
Boston, MA Katılım Nisan 2023
650 Takip Edilen684 Takipçiler
The tech industry and the military-industrial complex have never been so intertwined as they are today. And with AI, the time gap from military application to consumer adoption has never been so compressed. Buckle up, wild times ahead!
Polymarket@Polymarket
JUST IN: Pentagon moves to build hyperscale AI data centers on at least a dozen U.S. military bases.
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@BenBajarin When the forecasts get raised every quarter for an extended period of time, the growth really starts to compound. 2027 forecasts will be revised up 2-3 times still before 2027 starts.
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Get more bullish than you are on semis/AI infra/and underlying supply chain. This cycle is so much more structural than the masses know yet.
Wait till you see my post tomorrow showing how conservative every forecast was in 2023/2024. Same thing today.. It's all much bigger.
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@nickpatience Renting out your TPU’s to generate the money to rent out someone else’s GPU’s, only to pressure margins, hmmm.
Does this mean Google over-allocated TPU capacity to external customers?
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Totally. CFO said Google is planning to expand use of third-party capacity in Q3 as a bridging strategy while it builds up internal capacity (which is part of the cause of margin pressure)
Daniel Newman@danielnewmanUV
$GOOGL comments are super bullish for neoclouds and AI GPU REITS like $NBIS $CRWV $WULF $CIFR and $IREN. 😎
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Elon Musk on Terafab:
We expect to announce the location soon.
This is a very big announcement and it deserves to have its own sort of day in the spotlight and not be sort of squeezed into an earnings call;
We've placed equipment orders for our development fab in Austin.
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Boston's priciest publicly marketed home sale in June?
$10.6 million.
For comparison:
🏠 Los Angeles: $47M
🏠 Miami: $43M
🏠 New York City: $23.5M
🏠 Boston: $10.6M
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@PatrickMoorhead Have to second this, I’ve been fortunate in my career to work for some amazing and talented people, Daniel’s discipline and drive are beyond anything I’ve experienced before.
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I respect Daniel for many things, and his work ethic is hard to match. Here he is, on vacation, doing interviews.
Daniel Newman@danielnewmanUV
It is hard for U.S. AI to compete with a copy and steal everything strategy so is China’s AI program ahead? I still believe American companies are leading innovation but lack of I.P. Enforcement is a real risk to our long term AI leadership. 🇺🇸👏🏻🚀
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@GavinSBaker @theinformation All the benefits of running a hyperscale cloud without carrying the risks of delivery security and uptime, I agree the new business model is a very overlooked move.
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Interesting report from @theinformation that Nvidia will be able to make 1000 Vera Rubin racks per day, which is $630b per quarter. Actually a little hard for me to believe and haven’t checked the math, but wow if true.
And Vera CPU racks and Groq LPU racks would be incremental to this.
As would their new business model where they take a revenue share of neocloud revenue in return for guaranteeing offtake.
I do think the latter point has not been well explored by analysts and is likely to be super important going forward.
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Brett Taylor, Chair of OpenAI seems very smart, very talented and...
on CNBC SquawkBox this AM downplaying open weight models and the threat to OpenAI or Anthropic...very wrong
'token efficiency' criticism misses the layer-players: @togethercompute, @modal, @flappyairplanes
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Dan O’Brien retweetledi
Incredible to see Futurum Equities reach 10,000 YouTube subscribers just two months after relaunching the channel.
We've been posting 4-5 short-form videos each week covering the market’s biggest developments across AI, space, energy and more so the momentum in such a short period has been incredibly humbling!
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@rolfbulk Semicaps 💪🏼
Plenty of time for ‘27 EUV #’s to still drift higher, ASML is notoriously conservative on capacity expansion execution.
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Strong $ASML print. Road to €75 in EPS in 2028. ASML remains our top pick in semicap equipment.
Quarter:
- €6bn increase in 2026 revenue guidance at >70% incremental gross margin: high-end EUV/ArFi tools for the leading-edge + high margin upgrade business.
- Memory revenue set to grow >75% this year. Logic only 15-20%, partly because trailing-edge and China are a headwind.
- 2027-28 capacity ramp: 30% EUV and ArFi capacity expansion in 2027, and another 30% under consideration for 2028.
That implies ASML plans to ship 85 EUV tools next year; below the high-end of investor expectations, but also up to 110 tools in 2028. In the context of the 2028 number, the small disappointment on 2027 is immaterial.
At capacity, revenue could approach €75B and EPS €75 in 2028, 30%+ above consensus (€57B/€55 EPS). That is more a blue-sky scenario rather than a base case, but it eases concerns around EUV as the industry bottleneck. Positive read-across for the rest of semicap.
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The market is confused because when IBM sells fewer mainframes, it shows up in two places in IBM’s financial reporting. The mainframe hardware shows up in Infrastructure, but the mainframe software (Transaction Processing), shows up in the Software reporting line. Mainframe software is about 25% of total IBM software, the other 75% being the high growth recurring software revenue, from Red Hat, Hashicorp, Apptio, watsonx, Confluence etc. which continues to perform well.
Daniel Newman@danielnewmanUV
$IBM miss was mainframe not software. The drag on all enterprise software is the better headline but isn’t accurate. 👀
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#NewProfilePic
I’ve decided to change my name and Pfp to myself (I’ll be keeping the handle @Midnight_Captl)
I want to take my platform to the next level in the ecosystem, and presenting myself in this way is an important step for me to achieve that
Please allow me to reintroduce myself, my name is Nick Dorsey.
I started my career at General Mills in Minnesota (where I’m from). I left and moved across the country (MN to SF) to become strategic sourcing manager at Apple, and I’ve been producing research on the AI and Semiconductors space for the past 2.5 years here on 𝕏 after that
I have a wife and a 10 month old baby girl named Mila and I live in the Bay Area. If you’re local and want to meet up, send me a DM, I want to meet more people in the industry 😊
If you’ve been following me for a while, thank you so much for engaging with me and helping me grow. It’s been a blast so far, and I’m excited about what’s to come next with my journey
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This is why the vertically integrated AI ASIC designs are so interesting to watch, as well as the next couple generations of $AMD rack-scale solutions.
Doesn’t matter much to TSMC and semicaps, could swing things greatly for $AVGO and $AMD based on how hyperscalers react to @nvidia’s moves over the next couple years
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I don’t think the market has realized yet what big a deal this is. @nvidia will be to AI-native application companies what AWS was to cloud-native, except they’ve set up the neo-clouds to carry the brand and reputation risk for security and uptime, while keeping recurring revenue annuity as these applications grow their compute demand. They’ve found a way to realize all the good parts of being a hyperscaler with the baggage.
NVIDIA@nvidia
🔗 Read more: nvda.ws/4eV4Da2
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Dan O’Brien retweetledi
𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝘂𝗺 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲.
Enterprise technology decisions are being made in a market that moves faster, shifts more often, and demands stronger signal than traditional research models were designed to deliver.
AI Decision Intelligence is built for that reality.
Futurum Forward brings together analyst judgment, purpose-built AI agents, proprietary data, governance, and real-time distribution to support better decisions across the technology ecosystem.
For enterprise buyers, technology vendors, investors, and operators, this means intelligence that is closer to the decision, faster to the market, and built for the speed of the AI cycle.
Explore Futurum Forward: 👉 futurumgroup.com/futurum-forwar…
#FuturumForward #AIDecisionIntelligence #MarketIntelligence
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Brilliant idea!
Gavin Baker@GavinSBaker
Retail, Substack, Reddit and most of all @X accounts are increasingly the most important forces in the stock market and yet there is no way for them to connect directly with the management teams of the companies they are writing about and investing in. And they have almost no visibility into the late-stage private companies that are ever more important. The @TomorrowXSummit aims to change this. Hosted by @antoniogracias and Valor Equity Partners, @iconnections_io and @rbiscardi and @atreidesmgmt, we are going to have our own version of the superb Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs TMT conference with an epic line-up of both public and private companies. Instead of having sell-side analysts interview management teams, we are going to have X accounts like @citrini and buysiders do the fireside chats. We expect thousands of attendees at the Moody Center in Austin, November 17-18 and please note that security will be extremely tight given some of the CEOs that are going to speak. Attendance will be free for X accounts that contribute positively to the discourse and affordable for retail accounts. Happy that this means friends like @DanielSLoeb1 , @altcap , @plaffont , @patrick_oshag and the @theallinpod crew will be able to afford the price of admittance should their schedules permit. And perhaps we can even get them on a panel or have them interview some management teams. I am sad to say there will be a different price for institutional investors who are not on X unless they are willing to reveal their anonymous handle, but I think this is going to be awesome for all. And everything will eventually be posted here on X for all to see. Open source for the win. Link to the website to sign up in the next post:
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