
Dan De Luce
14.5K posts

Dan De Luce
@dandeluce
National security and global affairs reporter for the NBC News investigative unit; formerly Foreign Policy magazine, Agence France-Presse, The Guardian, Reuters











I've been engaged with Western, Iranian, and regional negotiators working on the Iran file for more than a decade. Nothing in the MOU surprises me. I am seeing a lot of claims that the Trump administration has made enormous concessions in the MOU and that this shows the Trump "lost" the war. But if you know why the language of the MOU reads the way it does, you would realize why this view is wrong. Every major "concession" in the MOU was something under discussion during the negotiations last May, before the 12-Day War. American and Iranian negotiators had discussed confidence building measures including the granting of oil waivers and the unfreezing of assets. The "reconstruction fund" outlined in the MOU was originally envisioned as a regional investment vehicle, with investment coming from the Gulf states. We shouldn't criticise the MOU because it contains unreasonable concessions, we should be frustrated that the MOU contains very logical inducements and that the Trump administration was poised to offer these same inducements not just before the 40-Day War, but also before the 12-Day War last year. In other words, the wars were completely idiotic because the parameters of a viable diplomatic agreement between the U.S. and Iran *were already put forward* to Witkoff and Vance by the Omani mediators, with input from the Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati systems more than a year ago. Iran was inclined to accept the deal, but instead it got attacked. We should consider ourselves fortunate that two wars later, Iran is still inclined to accept this deal, without dramatically different terms. That is a reflection of hard-nosed Iranian pragmatism and the under-appreciated fact that the Iranian national security establishment takes the idea of diplomacy seriously. The Trump team have proven slow learners, but they may finally be realizing why diplomacy needs to be conducted with a win-win outlook.




Russia was behind arson attacks targeting UK PM Keir Starmer, BBC reveals bbc.in/3Q3lOy1
