dannny

@prpl8 brother the data points are all wrong. shape isnt even remotely similar. peak was 2.065 not 2.02

@dannny56 it prob missed a few data points lol

👀

@prpl8 ya but not as much as a trend break as suggested. could j be down the same reason that it was down jan-feb...i dont keep up with this index tho so idk

@dannny56 peak and present are correct though

@skgoodwin23 thank you my goat 🙏🙏🙏

@whoisjoenathan @Hedgeye @zriboua massive net interest spread to pay off the loans that shouldve alr been marked down

@Hedgeye @zriboua How have Chinese banks survived this?

China's Real Estate Market has erased all gains from the last 20 years

$hnge on hiatus cant get comfortable on yield growth and migraine demand new SWORD M&A and OMDA also weak competitors

wut archive.is/xg7DZ

@ContrarianCurse yes esp with DOCW, workflows, and some of the expert call integrations BQL formulas with the backend is a nice touch too with ASKB

@taobanker u have seen acquisitions partially for the sake of getting more $cat machines and ur bearing? ☹️

$cat is the new $wmt this shit is fucking dumb, michael burry is right on this one

@KerrisdaleCap curious how you get the C-Band value math?

$TDS: we remain long and are sharing a follow-up note at kerr.co/tds-2. Since our January report, earnings have been solid and thesis reaffirming. But it’s worth discussing what comes next 1/6

$qdel finally printing🙏 archive.is/xj5pS bit lost on how to get a 10x EBITDA buyer on a declining PoC biz, but regardless, should rerate the labs biz better on fcf conversion, mix / margin improvements, less conflicts of interest (e.g. cannibalization)...

@dopamine_uptake good case thanks 🙏

$RIM peaked at $147 per share in 2008. FY2011 results: revenue +33%, EPS +47%, crackberry shipments +43%. Revenue more than tripled, shipments quadrupled from 2008-11. Several managers dip buying all the way down saying fears overblown. Everyone has a calculator.

@ExcessDefaults fr the main reason mag 7 is down is bc of mem prices anyways

Gonna be another dark 5 years for value bros (always dark pour moi)

@kaladindz lly still buying bulk last quarter iirc from stvn.

@dannny56 Because, theoretically, each elastomer, or each pair of elastomers, or whatever the units per primary container are, should correspond to more units of $stvn and proportionally fewer units of Schott and Gerres.

Following the reports from $1SXP, $WST, $BDX & $STVN, we now have the full context to judge each company’s results. $GXI is still having issues with their auditors or something along those lines. Honestly, I haven't bothered to look into it and I don't think it’s very relevant.

@kaladindz yes but sales != volumes. $wst has diff unit economics on pfs vs vials and rtu vs non-rtu.

@dannny56 Therefore, by virtue of the whole $stvn thesis relying on them outsmarting/outpacing/outwitting/outwhatever Schott and Gerres in capacity, they should grow faster by taking incremental market share from both. And specially growing faster than $wst

@kaladindz $wst is elastomers; their PFS use $1sxp and $gxi glass. not rlly comparable

Which is great on a standalone basis, and in a way, assuming $WST basically represents the entire market, they are gaining some incremental market share, but not all of it, and definitely not as much as I expected. There are several reads from this:

@WTCM3 is bull case not j new ceo turnaround + rerate on credibility? seems tuff to tease out also bear case mentions 2017- CEO but he's been out since Oct 2025

$ICLR bull/bear

@Blinklebloop how is $miax supposed to take share lol

$MIAX has real operating leverage in its options-revenue segment through its Access & Market Data fees. Biggest revenue segment is Transaction & Clearing fees (of which options) is 72% of total revenue BUT that 72% of revenue has a big cost attached to it- the net capture is $74m because the cost attached to that revenue is $223.m of liquidity payments (paid out as rebates to attract order flow). The opportunity lies in Access & Market Data fees which are $46m - but this is basically 100% margin (36% of NET revenue) and grew at 45% YoY. This is where the real bull case is. The exchange is already built, adding more transaction volume benefits from economies of scale. As $MIAX continues to take options market share- in volume, the Access/Market Data fees increase and contribute directly to the bottom line. If you look at the financial statements its nascent. There is a LOT of margin growth to happen vs other exchanges (this is a big part of the bull case). The stock price is suffering due to technicalities (no not stupid line drawing) real stock technicalities- there is a massive stock overhang -the 180-day lock-up expired Feb 10, 2026, freeing ~80M pre-IPO shares to sell. That post-lock-up supply is the main driver of the slide from $57, and insiders are now selling (e.g., an EVP sold ~$0.67M). Again, this is a technicality, not a fundamental issue with the underlying business. And I would say its more of an opportunity to buy a high quality, growing business, at a cheap price- not financial advice, just my opinion. I do own shares.