Daniel Renaud

The American Dream (buying a house, starting a family, and retiring in your 60's) is dead for Gen Z and Millennials. It now takes eight times as many hours as it did in the 1980's to acquire one "share" of the S&P 500:

@traderhc Bonds didn’t rally, 10YR treasury is up 20 bps and credit spreads widened 10-20 bps this quarter.

Pension funds are about to do what retail won't. Buy stocks into a wall of fear. Tomorrow is March 31. Quarter-end rebalancing day. Equities got crushed this quarter while bonds rallied. Any fund targeting 60/40 is now underweight stocks vs their mandate. They don't get to have opinions. They rebalance mechanically. This mechanical bid lands into a market where dealers are short over $7B in gamma on $SPY alone. That means every move gets amplified. CTAs are sitting on 344K net short contracts. If price reclaims certain levels, their algorithms flip and start buying too. You get forced pension buying triggering dealer hedging triggering CTA covering. Dominoes. $SPY closed at 631. Put wall sits right here at 630. Gamma flip is up at 653. I think we see 645 to 655 this week before reality reasserts itself. The last three times sentiment dropped below 10 on the Fear & Greed index, the next 30 days averaged over 4% gains. Not because things got better. Because positioning was too one-sided. None of this changes the recession. Dallas Fed just missed again. Oil at 105 is choking consumers. Friday's NFP is the real test. But the most violent rallies happen when nobody wants to be long and the plumbing forces buying anyway. Where does $QQQ end the week? I'm watching that 568 high from today as first resistance. Love to see it

@DeItaone lol…Powell isn’t doing anything after the administration decided to issue a subpoena against the Federal Reserve, he’d be glad to watch stocks get smoked.

BOFA: STOCK MARKET NEAR LEVEL THAT COULD SPUR POLICY ACTION Michael Hartnett warned that if the S&P 500 drops further—around 6,600, just 1% below recent levels—it could trigger a policy response from the White House or the Federal Reserve. Hartnett cited soaring oil prices, a protracted Iran war, and global instability as catalysts. He also flagged overbought assets like gold, semiconductors, and European stocks, while oversold sectors such as software, bank loans, and bitcoin may stabilize once policymakers act. Potential interventions could include easing tariffs, de-escalating the conflict, or Fed stimulus measures like rate cuts or bond purchases.

@usahockey Hang it in the Louvre!

RED, WHITE, BLUE AND GOLD. TEAM USA IS BRINGING HOME THE #WINTEROLYMPICS GOLD. 🇺🇸🦅

@ClayTravis The GOP Boomer: “Let them eat GDP”

Year one of Trump has been incredible. Consider: 4.4% GDP at end of year, 2.4% inflation, record high stock market, lowest murder rate since 1900, most secure border in history, & 10% decline in government employees. It’s honestly extraordinary.

@indexnforgetit Nope, the Fed changed the definition in May of 2020, stop with the fear mongering.

35% of ALL US dollars in existence were created in 10 months And you think real estate is going to crash?

@SenateGOP Well color me surprised…

America’s seniors will see a new $6,000 bonus exemption as a part of the Working Families Tax Cut. That’s $93 billion in tax cuts for seniors all over the country.

@ecommerceshares Using the color gold to represent Bitcoin performance is chart crime!

The big news from Davos is that the luxury hookers have stopped accepting Bitcoin but are happy to take Gold bars and DRAM sticks.

@Buck You see a quiet airport, I see no security line

Total mayhem at 11:08 am Saturday at Lambert Airport in St.Louis. We used to be a HUB. In the words of Fred Willard in Waiting for Guffman - wha happened? Same action they’re getting in “Blaine, Missouri” I would imagine.

@KILLTOPARTY Let’s be real, this cuts both ways…

Women have no use for an unattractive man

@PeterSchiff Why would out government ever pursue deflationary policies when it has $40T of debt?

It’s widely acknowledged that there’s an affordability crisis in the U.S. The only real point of contention is who’s to blame. Yet the Fed insists that its mandate is to add to the problem by ensuring that already unaffordable prices continue to rise by at least 2% per year.

@roccchua @CaryKelly11 Because I prefer my stainless steel pans not to be scratched up.

@danr1113 @CaryKelly11 because.....?

Have you ever tried to cook eggs in stainless-steel? It can be a disaster. You need to understand the Leidenfrost effect if you want to avoid a mess. This is a really cool demonstration and explanation. Source: letseat_uk (IG)

@coookwithchris If you’re looking for a hot sauce with cleaner ingredients check out O’briens organic chipotle pepper sauce (I purchase it from my local Whole Foods).

Taco night with the cleanest ingredients I could find at Sprouts🌮

@DonMiami3 @MacroEdgeRes @RESightsbyME @MacroEdgeVision ABS tied to automobile debt starting to unravel 🍿

The financial sector weakness is a weird outlier to all of the euphoria We don’t have a *why* but we have a *pay attention*

@WalterDeemer 2) PLTR price to sales ratio of 115…that’s not speculation?

Will this bull market ever end? The 3 traditional reasons: 1) Fed tightening, 2) Rampant speculation (a la 2000), and 3) A recession. The Fed ain’t gonna tighten… and speculation’s not rampant a la 2000. But #3? Well, the stock market **is** a leading economic indicator...

@BoringBiz_ If you’ve ever wondered if there’s negative consequences to running the loosest fiscal policy ($25T) since 2008 alongside four rounds of QE…you have your answer.

An entire generation under the age of 30 is coming to realization that having a family and home will never be within the grasp of reality for them Society is not ready for the consequences of this. A generation with no stake in the system would rather watch it burn

@Rashin1999554 @RobertMSterling You need a bachelors degree. You also need to take a series of exams to obtain your FSA or FCAS, which on average take 5-7 years to complete. Yes internships are paid and you can get one and full time employment with an insurance company while taking exams.

@danr1113 @RobertMSterling I wanna become an actuary but would it be necessary for me to take a degree? Can I get like paid internships when I complete some papers? How was your journey?

If you’re decent at math, becoming an actuary is a cheat code for joining the upper middle class. $250-300k in your early 30s if you’re willing to study for the exams (which are challenging but not unreasonably hard). 40 hour workweek most places. Ivy League MBA not required. Probably the best ratio of good income to low stress out there. Sure, you don’t take home the huge comp packages that PE or hedge fund guys get. But you get to do interesting work, you’re treated well, and you make more than 98% of W2 earners with way better work-life balance.

@EpsilonTheory …and then get their asses handed to them in midterms…smh

They’re gonna run it hot like you can’t even believe.

@pulte The bond market sets mortgage rates, not Jerome Powell. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Jerome Powell.