david Evans

SPX GEX LEVELS: May 5 The gamma decay we warned about Saturday is happening in real time. 🚨🚨🚨Tomorrow's expected range: 7,100 – 7,275. Wider than last week's ranges because the gamma is thinner. Below 7,188, the regime flips and the accelerators fire. Net GEX dropped 27% in three sessions, from +$1.07B to +$787M. Friday's OPEX drained a quarter of the gamma blanket. Today's put buying thinned it further. The structure that pinned SPX in 100-point ranges for three weeks is losing its grip. The GEX flip tightened to 7,188, 13 points below the close. That's the second time in a week spot has landed on the regime change threshold. Last time was the FOMC knife edge at 7,138 with one point of cushion. The market is walking the same line again, except now the gamma underneath is 27% lighter. Today's volume tells you where the pressure is coming from. The top 4 negative volume strikes were all below spot: 7,150 (-$51M), 7,100 (-$38M), 7,125 (-$37M), 7,120 (-$30M). That's aggressive put layering within 100 points of spot. The 7,000 strike absorbed -$27M in put buying with 80K puts traded against 19K calls. The zone from 7,000 to 7,175 is being loaded with downside exposure. Above spot, call buying held at 7,250 (+$42M), 7,240 (+$35M), and 7,300 (+$28M). The magnets are still there 7,300 at +$136M is the max magnet, 100 points above. But the path to get there runs through a minefield of freshly loaded puts that didn't exist last week. The 7,000 strike is worth noting again. Put OI (1.023M) now exceeds call OI (992K) by 31K contracts. The GEX contribution is +$3M, functionally zero. The anchor of the entire March-April rally has completely neutralized. Here's where we are structurally. Saturday's alert said the path of least resistance shifted lower. The shooting star was invalidated on today's session but the gamma decay and the flow reversal are both playing out. Net GEX dropped 27%, the flip tightened to 13 points, and put buying loaded the zone below spot. The candle didn't confirm but the structure did. Gamma is still positive. Dealers still buy dips above 7,188. The regime hasn't flipped yet. The question is whether tomorrow's session is the one that pushes through. The decay schedule continues: another 15% of the blanket expires by Friday. By monthly OPEX on May 15, 72.6% of last Thursday's gamma is gone. Each day the structure gets lighter and the flip level tightens. Yields aren't helping. The 30-year crossed 5% today and the 10-year hit 4.44%. Rising rates compress equity multiples and that pressure is hitting while the gamma blanket that suppressed every move for a month is 27% thinner. $SPX $SPY