David Oks

104 posts

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David Oks

David Oks

@davideoks

https://t.co/fTZS8fiK22

Katılım Mart 2025
365 Takip Edilen1K Takipçiler
Erik Brynjolfsson
Erik Brynjolfsson@erikbryn·
A key policy question is whether we use AI mainly to substitute for people or to augment them. As I argued in The Turing Trap, we can and should build institutions and technologies that preserve human agency and decentralized power.
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Erik Brynjolfsson
Erik Brynjolfsson@erikbryn·
The @nytimes piece today by @ByrneEdsal13590 highlights a concern I share: “If we stay on the current path, the risk of extreme concentration — both economic and political — is very real.” In work with @zhitzig, we ask why AI may shift the balance between dispersed knowledge and centralized control.
Erik Brynjolfsson tweet media
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Alex Imas
Alex Imas@alexolegimas·
This by @davideoks is one of the best, most insightful essays on AI-driven labor displacement that I’ve read. People like to point to ATM as evidence that tech doesn’t displace labor. The ATM didn’t reduce bank teller employment—> true. But the iPhone did. David makes argument that putting AI into human-shaped roles will increase productivity but there’s tons of bottlenecks and complementarity effects. Human labor will still be around. What will create a huge boom in productivity and actually displace labor is the rise of AI-first organizations: where production is designed around AI to begin with. Where AI changes the paradigm of production from first principles. We are starting to see this happen already; I have an essay in the works on it. In the meantime: everyone should read this: open.substack.com/pub/davidoks/p…
Alex Imas tweet media
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Zoomer Alcibiades
Zoomer Alcibiades@HellenicVibes·
@napoleon21st First three are absolutely, inarguably true. Other than that it’s judgement call I guess.
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Zoomer Alcibiades
Zoomer Alcibiades@HellenicVibes·
Trump II foreign policy recap: - Gaza ceasefire - Assad out - Toppled Maduro & opened Venezuela - Iran War (so far so good?) - Ukraine winning again, Ukrainian drone supplies secured - Lebanon getting liberated from Hezbollah - Markets happy Next: Cuba?
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David Oks
David Oks@davideoks·
@Kantrowitz could also just be high-quality RAG from Palantir no?
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Alex Imas
Alex Imas@alexolegimas·
FWIW, for the actual "feeling the AGI" productivity boost, #4 (agentic systems) felt like the biggest leap, and it wasn't close. I was a heavy user since 2022, but the paradigm shift for work happened with agents. This is why I think we'll start seeing AI show up in productivity data soon: the real inflection for work isn't 2022 or 2024, it's summer of 2025.
Ethan Mollick@emollick

From an AI user perspective, the four big leaps so far in ability: 1. GPT-3.5 (ChatGPT, November 2022) 2. GPT-4 (Spring 2023) 3. Reasoners (starts with o1-preview, but the real deal was o3, Spring 2025) 4. Workable agentic systems (Harness + good reasoner models, December 2025)

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David Oks
David Oks@davideoks·
@GuiveAssadi @gcochran99 that's why I said "usually." obviously there will be cases where you or I differ with what historians think of a given historian; but ignoring it entirely means that you give credence to historians like McMeekin who cite forged documents and made-up numbers :)
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Guive Assadi
Guive Assadi@GuiveAssadi·
@davideoks @gcochran99 I do not agree that it is trustworthy. A lot of historians like the New History of Capitalism people, for example. Historians hate Steven Pinker who is generally pretty good.
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David Oks
David Oks@davideoks·
@GuiveAssadi @gcochran99 to each their own. but professional consensus among historians is usually a good indicator of quality, whether someone is a trustworthy interpreter of information ... john lukacs who was ultra-conservative is a very well-regarded historian, mcmeekin (and eg frank dikotter) not
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Guive Assadi
Guive Assadi@GuiveAssadi·
@davideoks @gcochran99 I don’t really care that much about professional consensus among historians, as opposed to the more concrete stuff in this thread
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David Oks
David Oks@davideoks·
@GuiveAssadi @gcochran99 McMeekin is quite poorly regarded among historians and is seen as a polemicist with extremely obvious biases. Notably in Stalin's War he cites an August 1939 speech by Stalin that is a known forgery; there are many other mistakes he makes in that book
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Guive Assadi
Guive Assadi@GuiveAssadi·
@gcochran99 Care to link to me to an explanation of why? I tried to check the lend lease numbers he provides one time and they were very inflated. I wonder if there are other issues.
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David Oks
David Oks@davideoks·
@Kantrowitz if all three companies laid off 20 percent of their workforces (assuming each company is 1k people), it would amount to 0.003% of the layoffs the U.S. recorded in 2025
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atlas
atlas@creatine_cycle·
AI is a convenient excuse for these enterprises and no one seems to recall the org bloat of the 2010s and ZIRP. those that are crazy posting are dishonest and are providing ammo for every anti-tech cause out there
atlas tweet media
jack@jack

we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack

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David Oks
David Oks@davideoks·
@MattZeitlin I feel like "cut half your staff to get back to where you were four weeks ago" not that great ...
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Matthew Zeitlin
Matthew Zeitlin@MattZeitlin·
Square stock going up by a quarter after it announced it was laying off 40% of its staff is going to Citrinify the whole tech sector whether AI actually can replace all that labor or not
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David Oks
David Oks@davideoks·
@DKThomp Indeed job postings data is not great (even if FRED uses it) and any AI effects are still swamped by macro factors. It's dumb to make strong inferences on this data in one direction or another
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Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson@DKThomp·
I’m seeing Chart 1 below being shared widely, suggesting the possibility that software programming jobs are booming as vibe coding gets cheaper. Hey, look, maybe. But zoom out a bit. Chart 2 is the 4 year history of software jobs. Huge boom, big bust, teeny bounce back. Then Chart 3 compares overall job listings to software only listings by indexing to Nov 2022, the launch of ChatGPT, whereas Chart 1 is much more zoomed in. This is not … history’s single greatest illustration of a coding revival, or Jevon’s Paradox. (Yet!) Real-time economic analysis of AI is hard, nobody knows anything, etc etc
Derek Thompson tweet mediaDerek Thompson tweet mediaDerek Thompson tweet media
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Corey Coto
Corey Coto@coreycoto·
@rmcentush @davideoks I'm loving monitor-the-situation. Please add Silver to the live market quotes overlay. 🙏
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David Oks
David Oks@davideoks·
@LinchZhang @StefanFSchubert yes, if they can truly do *everything* humans can do and human preference for "human touch" doesn't enter into it, then the Baumol scenario drops away. but by then (assuming humans control the robots) we're talking about unimaginable post-scarcity
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Linch
Linch@LinchZhang·
@davideoks @StefanFSchubert otherwise if robot efficiency is greater than subsistence wages then comparative advantage doesn't mean anything, it's still more efficient for robots to do it than for expensive meat to do the same work
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Stefan Schubert
Stefan Schubert@StefanFSchubert·
Another factor could be that if AI grows as a fraction of the world economy and is priced similarly globally then PPP-adjustments could grow smaller, reducing poor countries’ GDP relative to richer ones.
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Linch
Linch@LinchZhang·
@davideoks @StefanFSchubert This assumes that there are things AIs and robots can't make, or can't make cheaply, right?
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Daniel Faggella
Daniel Faggella@danfaggella·
@fchollet Who is literally going to be alive or have access to money in 6 whole months?
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François Chollet
François Chollet@fchollet·
If you're looking to buy a Mac Mini, wait 4-6 months, a lot of used Mac Minis in mint condition are about to hit the market
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