@Xav_Swift @nishkidoonoo @elonmusk I agree most longs haven’t done the work on it - so you assumed I didn’t - big mistake.
At least you’re smart enough not to short it…
English
Kevin DeCamp
1.2K posts
Kevin DeCamp
@decampkev
Stock analyst at Stansberry Research/CT tech. Time is more valuable than money. Long $TSLA since 2012.
Katılım Mayıs 2013
1.3K Takip Edilen412 Takipçiler
@decampkev @nishkidoonoo @elonmusk No. Valuing the company. Longs on this name almost universally have not done the actual work on it. If you don't understand ML you can't own this name. If you don't have a thesis around Wayve you shouldn't own this name.
English
670 robotaxis in the total fleet $TSLA
Deus Ex Machina@nishkidoonoo
669 robotaxis in the total fleet $TSLA
English
English
@decampkev @nishkidoonoo @elonmusk I'm sorry but that's an entirely different argument. No harm, but you don't have enough background here. Good luck.
English
@Xav_Swift @nishkidoonoo @elonmusk Yes, a variant isn’t the same - but a Robotaxi 14.x variant of a model can benefit from the fleet data.
English
@decampkev @nishkidoonoo @elonmusk "variants". If they aren't the same model you aren't validating. Do you have FSD? Go test between even small releases. They are post training & simulating the geofence targets. These are no longer the same models.
English
@Xav_Swift @nishkidoonoo @elonmusk Ashok Elluswamy on last call:
“I’d like to note that the version of Robotaxi that’s running in Austin, Dallas, Houston, et cetera, those are essentially 14.3 variants”
English
@decampkev @nishkidoonoo @elonmusk Robotaxi fleet is not the same model. You can't validate with a different model.
English
They are and just had a significant update that hasn’t even rolled out to the whole fleet.
@elonmusk partly agrees with you, ““I think it’s not going to make sense for us to deploy unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi at large scale when we know that there are major architectural improvements to the software that can improve safety.”
Tesla scale is orders of magnitude higher than Waymo scale - of course it doesn’t make sense yet…
English
@decampkev @nishkidoonoo Tesla hasn't scaled because they aren't safe enough yet. You can run unsupervised at low miles and be statistically very unlikely to cause severe issues. That's what they're doing. The real question you should answer is why aren't they validating on the consumer fleet
English
@Xav_Swift @nishkidoonoo In addition, last 3 months of Austin crash data very promising.
Prediction: Waymo data impressive mostly because of decrease in major, injury crashes, but has hit a local maximum. Tesla will far surpass them in safety in next 3-6 months and the market will finally wake up…
Raines@raines1220
Tesla Robotaxi was at least ~1.81x safer than humans in April 2026. With the latest NHTSA crash report, and thanks to Robotaxi Tracker, I can finally report that Tesla Robotaxi in Austin surpassed average human safety in April 2026 (last month). 1. According to NHTSA, I estimate the human crash rate, including both reported and non-reported crashes, is ~249K miles per accident. 2. I collected all Tesla-reported mileage, as well as 7-day active fleet size from Robotaxi Tracker, and found the mileage is pretty predictable. This allows me to accurately estimate monthly Robotaxi mileage in Austin with <5% error. 3. Using the latest NHTSA crash report, I calculated the 3-month rolling crash rate, since Tesla sometimes has 0 monthly crashes. It clearly shows that in April, the 3-month rolling crash rate surpassed humans for the first time.
English
Tesla recently did an architectural rewrite of FSD using MLIR (Multi-Level Intermediate Representation) for multiple reasons including faster reaction time, faster model iteration speed, and most importantly - safety.
Tesla can produce the entire Waymo fleet in an afternoon. Why truly scale when significant safety improvements are in the pipeline?
More details:
grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5…
English
@raines1220 @MLFuturist This is what I was looking for. Great news, thank you.
English
Nope. They did not include the Bay Area ride-hailing service. Why? Read the 2025 Q3 call transcript. Ashok mentioned that the Bay Area had already logged over 1M miles at that time. Later, in the Q4 deck, Tesla reported only 650K cumulative paid Robotaxi miles.
Mathematically, there’s no way the Bay Area was included in “paid Robotaxi miles.”
English
Tesla Robotaxi was at least ~1.81x safer than humans in April 2026. With the latest NHTSA crash report, and thanks to Robotaxi Tracker, I can finally report that Tesla Robotaxi in Austin surpassed average human safety in April 2026 (last month).
1. According to NHTSA, I estimate the human crash rate, including both reported and non-reported crashes, is ~249K miles per accident.
2. I collected all Tesla-reported mileage, as well as 7-day active fleet size from Robotaxi Tracker, and found the mileage is pretty predictable. This allows me to accurately estimate monthly Robotaxi mileage in Austin with <5% error.
3. Using the latest NHTSA crash report, I calculated the 3-month rolling crash rate, since Tesla sometimes has 0 monthly crashes. It clearly shows that in April, the 3-month rolling crash rate surpassed humans for the first time.
English
@raines1220 I don’t think there’s any evidence that “paid Robotaxi miles” is solely Austin (SF included also).
Therefore, Austin miles are much lower than you assume and crash rate is higher.
I hope I’m wrong, but where is the evidence?
English
@technoking_420 @elonmusk is not gonna walk away from $TSLA. It’s a reasonable debate to have with good points on both sides you FUDker @technoking_420
English
These people aren’t looking out for Tesla shareholders’ best interests. They manage funds and actively trade the stock. If SpaceX and Tesla announce a merger, whatever the Tesla Board and Elon offer IS the BEST OFFER for shareholders. You either vote YES, or you will see the biggest rug pull in history as Elon walks away from a company that doesn’t support his vision. Look at OpenAI example, and the past 5 years without a 2025 comp plan in place.
Tesla was not founded with dual-class shares, so a merger is the only way for Elon to secure permanent control of his companies. If you’re a long-term shareholder, you’ve stuck it out through the Twitter drama, DOGE drama, Trump feud drama, the 2018 comp plan re-vote, the Texas relocation, and the 2025 comp plan. Voting NO on the merger is the same as voting NO on all of the above.
Wake up, people. Now is not the time to get distracted by this stupid fight among the community. If you really back Elon, stand with him 100%. Or just sell your shares. There is no compromise in Elon or his companies. This stock is not for you—there are plenty of other stocks without this level of drama. Haven’t we all learn?
@CernBasher @TeslaBoomerMama @TeslaLarry
English
@TeslaBoomerMama She said they likely will be “taking it down” when it goes public - so the reason for $TSLA shareholders is to buy @SpaceX at greater than 100X sales from @ARKInvest?
English
@TeslaBoomerMama @DoctorJack16 You’re not concerned at all by a potential 100 P/S ratio for SpaceX?
English
Excellent article by @DoctorJack16 on all the good reasons for a merger.
Now add
- governance solved
- SpaceXAI shielding Tesla's operations from politics
- short term squeezing short sellers and index funds
But yes, let's wait for the market to account for robotaxis 🙄
Doctor Jack@DoctorJack16
English
Agree 100%
But, at this multiple and a ~$1.5 trillion MC a good amount of AI/robotics is already priced in.
We can debate how much of it, but I don’t think we can deny it’s significant.
@bradsferguson @LimitingThe
The Limiting Factor@LimitingThe
Well articulated. I'm a fan of SpaceX and Tesla and a future merger. But I am also heavily invested in Tesla and want to see the decade of investment adequately represented in the deal. There are two companies that are valued very differently.
English
@DKThomp You may like it, but it’s dumb:
Vision only AVs - unknown/impossible
Steel reusable rockets - unknown/impossible
Wiring 100K GPUs coherently - unknown/impossible
Could go on, but xAI is behind for now because it was formed years after the others.
English
I don’t think I’ve seen this take before but I like it.
Musk has been world-leading at compressing money, resources, and time to make “known/hard” things at scale—make an electric car, make batteries, make a cheaper bigger rocket, all of which already existed but worse, at less scale, or more expensively —but he’s less than world-leading at cracking open breakthroughs in more unknown spaces.
So it would make sense that XAI is lagging the frontier labs on new AI agents, but also that he’d have built a neocloud to power those models once they run short of compute
rohit@krishnanrohit
Also, fwiw, I pointed this out 4 years ago. That Elon's unique talent is suited better to some things than others. Getting a neocloud up and running is a known but hard thing to do, getting a model to be as good as the frontier labs is an unknown and hard thing to do. strangeloopcanon.com/p/on-thinkers-…
English
@lawofproduct @SMB_Attorney Of course - I heard Sorkin does a bump every commercial break
English
This is the greatest interview in the history of television.
This man, Ryan Cohen, is worth an estimated $5.1 billion dollars.
He’s the founder of Chewy, the e-commerce pet food brand, and current CEO of GameStop.
You can just do things, guys!
English
@JesseTinsley Massive dilution (especially when the CEO is trying to hide it from his ape shareholders) is massively bullish 🚀
Few understand this 🤡🤡🤡
English
People fundamentally dont understand the financial system.
You can leverage the combined equity value of the businesses to offer say ~ $55B with ~$10B of your own combined cash and $20B debt and $25b equity as the combined entity is worth ~$65b.
One of the greatest interviews of all time. Ryan is just not having any of it haha
English