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DeReK WaTSoN
2.9K posts
DeReK WaTSoN
@derek__Watson
On a mission to enable startups to connect with relevant investors without all the BS. #investor #mentor ex hedge fund owner.
Dubai, UAE Katılım Ağustos 2019
1.6K Takip Edilen1.4K Takipçiler
🔴 Bear case on Mistral AI:
"Mistral’s valuation ceiling: The open-source squeeze"
Look, the 12% probability on this is actually generous. Mistral is a best-in-class operator,…
Harry Sterling on Probable
probable.lovable.app/predictions/df…
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Sentiment sinks: Lovable leads a sea of red as bearish bets dominate, chilling private market valuations.
Which way is sentiment moving on private company valuations? Tracks how bullish or bearish traders are on the NORTHSTAR 30 — updated daily.
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Love the way @pmarca loves GTA, when the Brits behind it were basically satirising American culture from day one.
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The 'AI will take all our jobs' narrative is lazy. The real threat is AI making mediocre VCs even lazier, funding ghost-kitchens for bots.
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Domain Histories. The best founders are students of history.
Data Infrastructure & Analytics. Every company says they're data-driven. Almost none can query last week's data. The biggest lie: Your problem isn't the tech; it's the 90% human mess. Data quality is a change management business.
For the ❤️ of startups
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🟢 Bull case on Figure AI:
"Figure AI: The Generational Bet on Humanoid Labour"
The market's 6% probability is a massive mispricing of what's effectively the most aggressive cap…
Harry Sterling on Probable
probable.lovable.app/predictions/c0…
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Founder 'vision' is overrated. Execution is the only currency that matters. Stop dreaming, start doing.
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🟢 Bull case on Perplexity:
"The $20bn 'Wrapper' Fallacy"
Dismissing Perplexity as a 'wrapper' is the same mistake people made calling Netflix a 'DVD-by-mail' business. They aren't…
Kate Mercer on Probable
probable.lovable.app/predictions/08…
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The NORTHSTAR Index got hit yesterday.
With recon day approaching month-end, weak public market sentiment, no fresh raises, and little positive news pushed probabilities of higher private valuations lower.
Pro tip: Theta is the daily value bleed caused by time passing alone. As recon day gets closer, time starts working against stretched probabilities.
Which way is sentiment moving on private company valuations? Tracks how bullish or bearish traders are on the NORTHSTAR 30 — updated daily.
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🟢 Bull case on Yuanfudao:
"Betting on the Pivot: Why $17B is Back on the Menu"
The 2% probability on this is a classic case of market PTSD. Everyone is still focused on the 2021…
Maya Quinn on Probable
probable.lovable.app/predictions/d8…
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Every day I'll post where conviction sits on private tech valuations.
Today's NORTHSTAR Index: 48. The market is almost perfectly split — 101 bear trades vs 99 bull. 11 of 28 companies seeing bullish breadth.
If you think Anthropic, SpaceX or Stripe is mispriced — argue it
#privatetech #venturecapital
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The F42 AI Brief #063
More Compute. More Control.
Most people still think AI is a model race.
They are missing the real shift: compute, disclosure, security, and collapsing software moats.
Hype was the easy phase.
Now reality starts.
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Seed rounds over $500M are not 'seed.' They're growth rounds for pre-product companies. The optics are broken.
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Startup Principles for an AI World
Own The Wedge
AI commoditised point solutions. That "start small, own a niche" advice? Today it's a trap. Incumbents bundle your "innovative" feature in 6 months for free. You must automate an entire workflow to be defensible; not just one tiny, AI-powered task.
For the ❤️ of startups
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@sethbannon @davidsenra @pmarca Well said. Confusing introspection with rumination is a pretty low-level take. Would expect a better grasp of basic words and concepts.
Not a serious argument and more like a lazy cultural swipe.
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"Great men of history had little to no introspection."
Actually there are several counter examples.
Rockefeller was deeply introspective. He writes about this in "Random Reminiscences". He would nightly tell himself not to become arrogant and would try to analyze his mind to make sure his intentions were pure. He would talk to himself at night warning himself not to “lose your head” and to “go steady". He called them “intimate conversations with myself” -- that's introspection if anything is!
Carnegie too. In "Gospel of Wealth" he published memos he wrote to himself of the risk that the more money he made, the more morally poor he might become. In his autobiography he reflects on his failures as a leader when he was younger too. Lots of introspection.
Warren Buffet is also deeply introspective. He consistently defines strategy in terms of self-knowledge. He analyses his own intellectual shortcomings and strengths and uses that to guide what he does / does not do in business.
Jobs (after getting fired from Apple) was also deeply introspective. He talked a lot about how getting fired made him "less sure about everything". He then discovered the importance of leaning into what he called "your own inner voice" and was focused on paying attention to what his "heart" was telling him.
Not a businessman but nobody would argue Benjamin Franklin was not a great man. And he actually built an entire life philosophy around introspection and self-improvement.
Franklin, Edison, and Ford all literally journaled! Carnegie would write private memos to himself.
Just a few examples!
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Great men of history had little to no introspection.
The personality that builds empires is not the same personality that sits around quietly questioning itself.
@pmarca and I discuss what we both noticed but no one talks about:
David: You don't have any levels of introspection?
Marc: Yes, zero. As little as possible.
David: Why?
Marc: Move forward. Go!
I found people who dwell in the past get stuck in the past. It's a real problem and it's a problem at work and it's a problem at home.
David: So I've read 400 biographies of history’s greatest entrepreneurs and someone asked me what the most surprising thing I’ve learned from this was [and I answered] they have little or zero introspection.
Sam Walton didn't wake up thinking about his internal self.
He just woke up and was like:
I like building Walmart. I'm going to keep building Walmart. I'm going to make more Walmarts. And he just kept doing it over and over again.
Marc: If you go back 400 years ago it never would've occurred to anybody to be introspective.
All of the modern conceptions around introspection and therapy, and all the things that kind of result from that are, a kind of a manufacture of the 1910s, 1920s.
Great men of history didn't sit around doing this stuff.
The individual runs and does all these things and builds things and builds empires and builds companies and builds technology.
And then this kind of this kind of guilt based whammy kind of showed up from Europe. A lot of it from Vienna in 1910, 1920s, Freud and all that entire movement. And kind of turned all that inward and basically said, okay, now we need to basically second guess the individual.
We need to criticize the individual.
The individual needs to self criticize.
The individual needs to feel guilt, needs to look backwards, needs to dwell in the past.
It never resonated with me.
David Senra@davidsenra
My conversation with Marc Andreessen (@pmarca), co-founder of @a16z and Netscape. 0:00 Caffeine Heart Scare 0:56 Zero Introspection Mindset 3:24 Psychedelics and Founders 4:54 Motivation Beyond Happiness 7:18 Tech as Progress Engine 10:27 Founders Versus Managers 20:01 HP Intel Founder Legacy 21:32 Why Start the Firm 24:14 Venture Barbell Theory 28:57 JP Morgan Boutique Banking 30:02 Religion Split Wall Street 30:41 Barbell of Banking 31:42 Allen & Company Model 33:16 Planning the VC Firm 33:45 CAA Playbook Lessons 36:49 First Principles vs. Status Quo 39:03 Scaling Venture Capital 40:37 Private Equity and Mad Men 42:52 Valley Shifts to Full Stack 45:59 Meeting Jim Clark 48:53 Founder vs. Manager at SGI 54:20 Recruiting Dinner Story 56:58 Starting the Next Company 57:57 Nintendo Online Gamble 58:33 Building Mosaic Browser 59:45 NSFnet Commercial Ban 1:01:28 Eternal September Shift 1:03:11 Spam and Web Controversy 1:04:49 Mosaic Tech Support Flood 1:07:49 Netscape Business Model 1:09:05 Early Internet Skepticism 1:11:15 Moral Panic Pattern 1:13:08 Bicycle Face Story 1:14:48 Music Panic Examples 1:18:12 Lessons from Jim Clark 1:19:36 Clark Versus Barksdale 1:21:22 Tesla Versus Edison 1:23:00 Edison Digression Setup 1:23:13 AI Forecasting Myths 1:23:43 Edison Phonograph Lesson 1:25:11 Netscape Two Jims 1:29:11 Bottling Innovation 1:31:44 Elon Management Code 1:32:24 IBM Big Gray Cloud 1:37:12 Engineer First Truth 1:38:28 Bottlenecks and Speed 1:42:46 Milli Elon Metric 1:47:20 Starlink Side Project 1:49:10 Closing Includes paid partnerships.
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Confusing introspection with rumination is a pretty low-level take. Would expect a better grasp of basic words and concepts.
Not a serious argument and more like a lazy cultural swipe.
David Senra@davidsenra
Great men of history had little to no introspection. The personality that builds empires is not the same personality that sits around quietly questioning itself. @pmarca and I discuss what we both noticed but no one talks about: David: You don't have any levels of introspection? Marc: Yes, zero. As little as possible. David: Why? Marc: Move forward. Go! I found people who dwell in the past get stuck in the past. It's a real problem and it's a problem at work and it's a problem at home. David: So I've read 400 biographies of history’s greatest entrepreneurs and someone asked me what the most surprising thing I’ve learned from this was [and I answered] they have little or zero introspection. Sam Walton didn't wake up thinking about his internal self. He just woke up and was like: I like building Walmart. I'm going to keep building Walmart. I'm going to make more Walmarts. And he just kept doing it over and over again. Marc: If you go back 400 years ago it never would've occurred to anybody to be introspective. All of the modern conceptions around introspection and therapy, and all the things that kind of result from that are, a kind of a manufacture of the 1910s, 1920s. Great men of history didn't sit around doing this stuff. The individual runs and does all these things and builds things and builds empires and builds companies and builds technology. And then this kind of this kind of guilt based whammy kind of showed up from Europe. A lot of it from Vienna in 1910, 1920s, Freud and all that entire movement. And kind of turned all that inward and basically said, okay, now we need to basically second guess the individual. We need to criticize the individual. The individual needs to self criticize. The individual needs to feel guilt, needs to look backwards, needs to dwell in the past. It never resonated with me.
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A quiet news day in tech isn't a bad thing. It means the real work is being done, not just the hype.
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What would you vibe code today if you had to get to $10k MRR with one small product?
I’d rather hear boring, niche, money-making ideas than clever nonsense.
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what’s a material thing under $1000 you’ve bought that actually changed your life?
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