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DeReK WaTSoN
3K posts
DeReK WaTSoN
@derek__Watson
On a mission to enable startups to connect with relevant investors without all the BS. #investor #mentor ex hedge fund owner.
Dubai, UAE Katılım Ağustos 2019
1.6K Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler
@derek__Watson @elonmusk A Dyson Sphere is a waste of time and resources. It's a thought experiment. It doesn't work in real life.
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Elon's Neuralink posts are sounding more like the Wachowskis every day. 'Tank, I need a math co-processor patch, Hurry.'"
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99% of founders are harsh on themselves and don't need VC pressure. They're already under more from themselves and the market than any VC could apply.
Which is why the best VCs don't apply pressure, they apply leverage. The ones who think their job is pressure picked the wrong job.
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The moment the VC needs to put pressure on the entrepreneur, they have bet on the wrong person.
The best founders are their harshest critics, always driving and pushing for more in themselves.
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America isn’t rich , it can’t service its debt without taking on new debt. That’s junk in markets.
America isn’t productive , it’s very busy but it doesn’t make money.
That’s a shit company and a sell in markets.
The reserve currency was the cheat code. It works until the world stops trusting. That trust is at an all time lows and will take years to build again. Hubris is a bitch man.
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America is the richest and most productive country in the history of the world with more innovation than anywhere else but we are pathologically incapable of balancing our budget. That makes sense.
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Realizing that if it wasn't for the absolutely eye-watering levels of fraud inherent in "mandatory" "nondiscretionary" "entitlements" like medicaid and medicare the budget would be balanced
FBI Director Kash Patel@FBIDirectorKash
🚨🚨 Today - 15 individuals have been indicted for over $90 million in an alleged massive healthcare fraud scheme in Minnesota, after a sweeping FBI investigation with @TheJusticeDept and our Interagency Partners. These charges involve the two LARGEST Medicaid fraud cases ever charged in this district and first-of-their kind charges involving 7 additional Medicaid programs. As alleged, the defendants defrauded Minnesota public healthcare resources for tens of millions, targeting programs such as Housing Stabilization Services, Child Care, Medicaid programs, Individualized Home Supports (IHS), and more. In one case, defendants even developed a scheme worth over $40 million to target the Early Intensive Developmental and Behavioral Intervention (EIDBI) – an autism healthcare program - paying kickbacks to parents who fraudulently used autism centers to diagnose children with autism regardless of medical necessity, and billing for services not actually provided. This not only defrauded taxpayers, but robbed valuable resources from families truly in need. President Trump gave this law enforcement team a mandate to investigate and systematically dismantle this exact kind of public fraud in America – which grossly abuses and mismanages money from hardworking American taxpayers - and that’s exactly what we’re doing. Today’s indictment in a massive moment in this effort. More to come. @DAGToddBlanche @VP @FBIDDRaia @SecKennedy @DrOzCMS
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@nic_carter You have reversed engineered what AGI is to fit your narrative. I think we should listen and take the definition of AGI from Demis Hassabis as someone who deeply understands, rather than make stuff up.
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The “it’s not AGI because machine intelligence is jagged” is dumb cope.
It’s obviously AGI. If you had a friend who had a 130 IQ, could write production code flawlessly, could write academic papers of a high research caliber, pass any exam in any field with flying colors, create a sophisticate LBO model, draw technical diagrams perfectly, compose poetry in any language, and could find solutions to significant unsolved mathematical problems, you would call that person a world historical genius. Certainly, no single human has ever had intelligence that “general” before.
Now you think it’s “not AGI” because it sometimes slips up and makes mistakes - so does any human that you would consider “extraordinarily intelligent.”
The professor might forget a colleagues name that he has known for a decade. He is still considered intelligent. The math genius might be a little autistic and shy, unable to maintain polite conversation. Still intelligent. You might stare at the fridge for 30 seconds unable to find the butter, despite 5 million years of evolution perfecting your visual intelligence.
We give intelligent humans a pass when they have jagged intelligence. So why the double standard?
The qualities people list as “necessary for AGI” are important traits to have, but no longer pertain to intelligence. People will say things like “true AGI requires agency, long term goal setting, embodiment, self-direct action”.
But none of those things are intelligence. Those are “things that humans have that AI lacks”. Raw intelligence, AI has it in spades. That other stuff - important yet, but broader than and different from intelligence.
The unwillingness of people to acknowledge that AGI obviously exists and has existed for a while is due to a kind of anthropic chauvinism - a psychological need to believe that humans are superior in every respect, that we possess soft skills that no machine could replicate.
Yes humans are different from machines, but if we are limiting the discussion solely to general intelligence, AI has it already. That battle is over.
If you want to reframe the discussion to matters of human dignity and personhood, fine, but that’s not an AGI question. That’s something else. Just take the loss on AGI already. It’s over.
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There's a flaw in the premise.
"Literally nothing" is impossible in enterprise. If they exist as a business, they're solving it somehow, maybe not with technology.
The right question founders should ask is way simpler.
Is my customer's current alternative human, time, and cash heavy with no tech solution?
That's bar zero. That's where the chasm narrows. That's where a 60% solution beats 100% of payroll.
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Geoffrey Moore says startups die in the chasm because pragmatist buyers demand a "whole product." These folks won't tolerate gaps. They need references. They need the complete solution. The chasm is lethal because because the buyers won't buy without perfection.
But Moore's model assumes there's an EXISTING solution the buyer is comparing you to. The whole framework assumes the buyer has a status quo they're comfortable with.
When the *bar is zero*, when the alternative is literally "we die" or "we do this entirely by hand with 2,000 people" (Block's compliance team) or "we just don't have this capability at all"?
The chasm doesn't exist for those.
Buyers start acting like visionaries instead of skeptics, because they have to buy. The alternative doesn't exist. They'll tolerate a 60% solution, missing features, no references, because 60% of something beats 100% of nothing.
The companies I get most excited about aren't disrupting incumbents. They're filling voids. 9 Mothers in the YC Spring 2026 batch is a counter-drone defense co for whom bar is zero, there is no viable close quarters defense otherwise! There's no chasm to cross for that.
The practical implication for founders: if you're in a market where the bar is zero, stop worrying about whole product, stop worrying about crossing the chasm, stop worrying about pragmatist references. Ship the 60% solution. They're begging for it.
If you're NOT in a bar-is-zero market (if there's an incumbent, a status quo, a "good enough") then Moore applies in full and you need the whole playbook (beachhead, bowling alley, whole product, the works).
The question every founder should ask: is my customer's current alternative literally nothing? If yes, you're in a different game than the textbooks describe. Ship it in whatever form you have. You'll know. And it's a great place to be.
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@MarioNawfal Its a balloon FFS obvious from how it explodes
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🇺🇸 A U.S. Air Force F-16C reportedly shot down a UFO in newly released Pentagon files.
So we’re really at the “fighter jets vs aliens” stage now.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸 What in the world is this? Check out this new video released by the Department of War. It shows what appears to be some sort of illuminated object. Look at how fast it's moving before it zips away like it has some sort of FTL drive!
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Oh. Do you think this is a maths question?
Tuesday is noise and childbirth is an independent event that has no dependents from previous outcomes. The answer is approx 50%. (There is probs a dataset out there to refine this)
If you just applied maths to this with out logic the answer would be 48% but not for the right reason.
So Boy or Girl × 7 days. Two children = 196
at least one Boy-Tuesday = 27
count of both boys = 13
13/27 =0,481
The most important thing is to understand the question everyone that interviews at Citadel can do basic maths.
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This question is asked at Citadel for $650k/year roles:
> A family has 2 children.
> At least one is a boy born on a Tuesday.
> What's the probability the other child is also a boy?
if you answered 50%, you just failed.
drop your answer below. I'll reply to the right ones.
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@DanielSmidstrup Has not change. make sure they have a problem worth solving
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if ai is doing "more" of the work,
what's the part founders still have to get better at?
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@1Umairshaikh $1m gets 50% easier to make every 30 years. The real secret is patience 😀😀
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Making a million dollars today is easier than ever.
What's the secret of finding a million dollar idea?
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@garyvee 99.999999999% of people is effectively 1 10th of a person on this planet..... I hope I have some importance to at least 1 whole person
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When you realize how unimportant you are to 99.999999999% of people, their judgment loses weight
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@dotcuriouscat Not another survivorship bias post with zero evidence.
Have you ever considered that founder origin stories are retrofitted? Our best truths are the beautiful lies we tell ourselves.
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The alpha in venture is an investor’s ability to spot a founder on a revenge arc
Explosive success comes from accumulation in discomfort, extreme life imbalance, and “beast in a cage” energy
Then sprinkle some delusions on top - you got my favorite founder type
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@pmarca Of course they do. Its the same cognitive function of blind faith in something they don’t understand
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@garrytan @ycombinator @sdianahu @AnjneyMidha Interesting how the question is formed @garrytan
Engineering for most business use cases is solved. Systems and BI thinking is not.
The question really is how does anyone build a 1000x business.
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How does one engineer become a 1000x founder? @sdianahu and I give you the real goods here
Thanks @AnjneyMidha for having us!
youtube.com/watch?v=Lri2LN…
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It all feels a bit Yahoo Google.
So OpenAI has 20x the users but is burning cash at a catastrophic rate whilst Anthropic is quietly approaching profitability with a fraction of the consumer footprint.
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@RoRoSeSe_ @elonmusk @brivael if that is pointed at me I suggest you read what it was replying to first
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@derek__Watson @elonmusk @brivael How about you look into correlation and not cherry picking?
Or are you a dude who says lung cancer from smoking is a myth, because you know a 90y old smoker?
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The $2M in OpenAI credits that Sam Altman just offered YC founders isn't generosity. It's an information play.
If YC takes that deal they’ll give OpenAI information rights on their startups. They watch which ones break out then rip it off, buy it out, or out-compete them.
"You're stupid if you take this deal." @jason
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