Dewby
91 posts
Thursday moves:
Closed $QQQ March 620(B 1) -
580 (S 3) put ratio spreads that were used as a hedge - contributed 7% to the portfolio over the past month! Replaced with $610 (B 1) – $568 (S 3) spreads for April.
Started a position in $STAA and increased it to 10% of the portfolio. I believe it will be sold within the next two years for well north of the $30 per share recently offered by $ALC, which was rejected.
New position: $BABA 5% at 125
New position: $NVDA 5% at 178
Small increase in position: $MDWD
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@tionormalinvir1 $HSI in bear market. Qwen Tech lead resigns. The drama still unfolding. Still yet to report ER (much later than previous release)
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Alguién me explica la caida de $BABA estas últimas semanas???
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@AJButton2 Koreans are just levered traders. The $KOSPI is still significantly up ytd compared to $HSI
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Crazy Iran war side story:
South Korea's stock market dropped 12% today, its worst 1-day decline on record.
Other Asian markets dropped by near-double digits through the day. Thailand, for example, declined 8%. China's Hang Seng declined much less, down just 2% for the day.
Why were South Korea and Thailand hit so hard by the selling? It seems odd, especially when you consider the fact that China--which is seen as being close to Iran--saw much milder selling.
It likely comes down to energy independence (or DEpendence, rather). South Korea and Thailand are both highly dependent on imported oil and gas, whereas China secures most of its energy domestically. Countries import oil from a variety of places; Asian countries tend to import a lot through the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently closed to tankers due to the war. China doesn't depend on energy imports much, so its economy is unlikely to be hit by supply shortages and inflation in the days ahead.
Additionally, China has an exemption that allows its tankers to go through the Strait of Hormuz even during the war. That's an extra little bit of protection that other Asian countries do not enjoy.
So, non-Chinese Asian stocks have been hit harder than Chinese stocks BECAUSE other Asian nations depend on Gulf oil more than China does.
It all goes to show the value of energy independence to a country in times of war. Even if you are not in the war, you can still be hit!
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@poezhao0605 $BABA stock collapsing faster than when they put Jack Ma in house arrest
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Alibaba’s Qwen team is being reorganized. Lin Junyang, the technical lead who built Qwen from scratch, walked out. Within 12 hours, an emergency all-hands. Within 24, a CEO letter.
The real story is the restructuring behind the departure. Alibaba is breaking up Qwen’s founder-led sprint team and folding it into a corporate matrix called “TongYunGe” (通云哥), binding models, cloud, and chips into one commercial stack.
Free to read: hellochinatech.com/p/qwen-archite…
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@leevalueroach Hard to time with the calls unless you got insider info. Easier to just buy shares knowing they will eventually do the restructuring.
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The real alpha right now
Find tech companies trading at multi-decade lows with insane SG&A bloat from the zero interest rate era
Wait for the layoff announcement
Buy calls the week before
Restructuring charges hit. Street sees the "path to profitability." Stock rips 30% in a week.
Rinse and repeat.
Half these companies are still carrying 2021 headcount on 2019 revenue.
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$XYZ layoffs should not be seen as a sign of other companies inevitably doing the same thing.
That company is beyond bloated.
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@ZaherTPI @michaeljburry Doesn’t look as bad as the ongoing SaaSpocalypse
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Hong Kong Stocks: Structure & Strategy
In the last 10 years, Netflix, Broadcom, and Tencent all increased revenue between 4.5-5X. Broadcom and Netflix have been leading performers, but Tencent’s stock has almost exactly a 0% return over the last five years.
This is the problem. All of Hong Kong’s massive tech stocks became massive since 2007, and the Hang Seng is today ~27,000, 15% lower than 2007...
$BABA $JD $PDD $BIDU $TCOM
#BABA #HangSeng #PDD #KWEB
open.substack.com/pub/michaeljbu…
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He knows a thing or two about the technology landscape.
New longs: $CRM, $NOW
tae kim@firstadopter
Stop the presses. Jensen defended SaaS software stocks again saying the stock market is WRONG youtu.be/odARk_cFhig?si…
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@Grover65970949 @JBandD New CEO will generate more than that by layoffs and selling divisions
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Can we talk about something without everyone getting mad...
Isn't it nice to see a $NVO announce a buyback, and then 12 days later, provide an update on the buyback showing they are buying shares.
In this day and age, where PooCos are constantly diluting, am I the only one who likes to see this???
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Lots of people don't like nano-caps. But when you are managing sub-$10mm of AUM it is more effective to buy these gems. Also a lot of people don't realize that Warren Buffett was a nano-cap investor back in the day before he graduated to the large caps.
Dirtcheapstocks@dirtcheapstocks
My favorite Buffett investment: Delta Duck Club. - $2.8mm market cap (4x earnings). - 13% dividend yield. - Oilfield remained active for 50+ years.
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@leevalueroach Their business will show up big when agentic AI will need payment accounts to create mass transactions between themselves. With Cc/debit they’ll have to go through a layer of security and credit checks. Venmo/Paypal will just let you insert your money and start transacting.
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PayPal is top six most visited website this month and you goofies are underwriting that it’s dying.
shah@shahh
Top 10 visited financial websites this month: 1. Yahoo Finance - 65.4m 2. Robinhood - 40.9m 3. Polymarket - 38.4m 4. Coinbase - 29.7m 5. Bank of America - 25.3m 6. PayPal - 24.4m 7. CashApp - 22.3m 8. Venmo - 20.2m 9. DraftKings - 18.8m 10. Zelle - 14.5m Notice something? 👀
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@MarianoRuxxo @NYCMayor Corporations are not leaving to go to red states with 50% less people😂. They are going to take the hit like tariffs.
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Corporations will not exploit working people in NYC.
Uber Eats, Fantuan & HungryPanda broke the law — shortchanging workers while raking in profits.
Today, we secured $5M+ in restitution for 49,000 delivery workers.
Let this be a warning: steal wages, face the consequences.
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@ZeeContrarian1 You said the same when $BABA was an underperformer. Valuation doesn’t matter until it suddenly does.
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If it isn’t shining in the summer, it won’t shine in the winter.
Tactical short on $NBIS & $IREN
PayPal ( $PYPL ) is the ultimate X favorite. People have been talking about PayPal nonstop, valuation, narratives, “it can’t go any lower” while ignoring the only thing that actually matters: price action.
PayPal ( $PYPL ) has been underperforming the market for a long time, yet holders keep hoping it will suddenly start outperforming for no apparent reason. This is a classic mistake. When a stock lags the market in good times, it almost always lags even more in a bad times.
Stocks that underperform on down days tend to underperform on up days as well. Hope fills the gap where price action should be. Anyone who’s lived through PayPal knows this pattern all too well.
That same framework is what brings me to $IREN and $NBIS. Over the past couple of months, we made a lot of money being long both names using creative structures. I still believe the long-term stories are intact. That hasn’t changed.
What has changed is the market’s message. Recently, both stocks have shown clear relative underperformance, which I’ll highlight in the charts below. Despite having already run hard since the start of the year, momentum has faded, volatility is picking up, and there’s a clear lack of near-term catalysts.
After a strong YTD move, I don’t see either stock going meaningfully higher anytime soon. Based purely on price action and relative performance, I expect dismal short-term returns.
Because of that, I’m shifting stance. This time, I’m bearish on $IREN and $NBIS , not because the long-term stories are broken, but because of the recent relative performance to the $QQQ.
Below, I’ll walk through two trades designed to take advantage of what I see as an upcoming drawdown in both names.
1) $NBIS Feb 20th Call Ratio Spread
Buy 90 Call
Sell 3 115 Calls
Pay: 1.2
Stop loss: -3
2) $IREN Feb 20 Put Ratio Spread
Buy 50 Put
Sell 3 40 put
Pay: 0.28
Stop Loss: None, I’ll gladly take the shares at 34.86, my breakeven point.
Z@ZeeContrarian1
New $NBIS counter sentiment trade The $IREN structure seems to be working perfectly, so I’m adding another one-this time on $NBIS that expires on Jan 17(37d): Sell 1 70 put Buy 1 90 call Sell 3 120 calls I pay $1.25 per spread. My logic is the same: there’s a real business here, but it’s been heavily sold off. Sentiment is washed out, momentum is gone, and upside enthusiasm looks weak. So I’m setting what I call a trap in case momentum starts to recover. The stock has already taken a deep hit, and I find it hard to envision another 25% decline in the next month which is where I sold my put-though I’d be a happy buyer there if it happens. On the upside, I only start losing if $NBIS rallies more than 44% over the next 37 days, which I see as highly improbable given current conditions. I like this trade. Stop-loss: -$3. Once again, this is all about understanding probabilities. The odds of me making money are significantly higher than the odds of me losing money. I’m comfortable taking the stock if it drops another 25%, and I’m equally comfortable taking the risk that it might spike 44% in a month-because statistically, structurally, and sentiment-wise, that scenario is far less likely. I believe that as these names evolve from dream companies into real companies, momentum should naturally subside in the process. The story fades, the narrative cools, and with it the volatility premium collapses. Hype gets replaced by execution, and markets stop pricing these stocks like lottery tickets and start pricing them like businesses.
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$PYPL
Even though the market is for the most part blistering red…guess who isn’t?
Have we bottomed at 56.32?
or is there a lot more pain in the future for the PayPal value trapped bag holders ?
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Here we go again….
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
$BABA - *PENTAGON SAID ALIBABA SHOULD BE ON LIST FOR CHINA-MILITARY TIES
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@EquityBrian @ylecun The report came from an unconfirmed source from the FT which is owned by Nikkei. Japan has been in conflict with China for the past few weeks regarding to Taiwan. WH did not give any comment as we can see they are getting the trade deal done.
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With @ylecun calling out the scare campaign, Anthropic’s China-hack claim falling apart, and a White House “leak” hitting Alibaba… it’s tough to ignore how neatly this all lines up against open source.
Especially since $BABA is by far the dominant force in open-source AI.
David Sacks@DavidSacks
👀
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@investingluc The report came an unconfirmed source from the FT which is owned by Nikkei. Japan has been in conflict with China for the past few weeks regarding to Taiwan. WH did not give any comment as we can see they are getting the trade deal done.
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Reports came out that $BABA was literally helping the Chinese military target the US.
I would've expected a 10% drop at least on this news.
International revenue is only about 8% of $BABA's total revenue...but would've thought we'd see a little more volatility on the initial fear.
Dropped just 5%.
I always make note of price strength after bad news (or price weakness after good news).
$BABA showed some interesting resiliency on this news...enough to get me interested in a short-term swing risking a daily close under $150. Light size.
ps..."US Treasury Secretary Bessent says the Trump Administration is targeting a trade deal with China by Thanksgiving."
Hmmm.
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