RedGeranium

@CraigACarter1 @roddreher wrote a book about this and everybody said “that will never happen”… Although your thread sounds so much like The Benedict Option I wonder if you already read it?

1/ Christian civilization has not fallen in the US yet, but it has in Canada. I pulled Alasdair MacIntyre's 'After Virtue' off the shelf this afternoon & read once again from the final paragraph of his magisterial work. He writes in a prophetic mode as follows:

@roddreher Maybe because of this, a little glimpse into our future fro NZ x.com/k_mahlburg/sta…

It really is bizarre. Not possible for it to be an oversight. This is how the Left party leaders think about the religion followed by most of the people in America.

@zero_lessons Please keep doing it, and please keep explaining it for the idiots in the back row.

@zero_lessons Thank you for pulling this together. I have neither the competence nor the intelligence to evaluate the technical aspect of these arguments, but what fascinates me is these arguments are happening, and capable people are sincerely making an effort to come to new knowledge.

@ahfultz Is this trajectory the same one predicted by Craig Stone? (75 I think)

2026 FEB 4

@ahfultz @PersTransient So embarrassed I posted too soon. "Find in page" seems to search only the title. Someone who talks to AI needs to 🙈 love this one.

@ahfultz @PersTransient I am surely not very capable to do this, but I searched all three papers and neither term appears. Can you define how you are using these words? I had assumed until now you were referring to simple appearance on the graph.

2026 JAN 31

@nobulart The butterfly effect?

In a weakly coupled system, every constituent participates in the dynamics, and no component is strictly negligible. Any element may supply the perturbation that nudges the system beyond a critical threshold. The situation is analogous to the London Millennium Bridge, where individually innocuous oscillations coupled through feedback and cohered into a system-scale instability that no single participant intended or controlled. Humanity, as an embedded subsystem rather than an external agent, is therefore unavoidably implicated in the aggregate outcome. Our actions do not direct the dynamics, but they contribute to the background noise and coupling structure from which critical transitions emerge. The activating perturbation could be catastrophic - a nuclear exchange, for example - but it need not be. In a metastable regime, the decisive impulse may just as plausibly arise from something subtle, diffuse, and unremarkable, its significance revealed only in retrospect once the system has already crossed the point of no return. h/t @cognitivecarbon for the excellent YT video. youtu.be/t-_VPRCtiUg

@ahfultz Ok not wobble. Deviation. But can it be quantified relative to what the smooth line would be? Might be useful as a metric as time passes.

@diegomycat It's not technically wobble anymore. It's inertial interchange forcing revealed by lunisolar torque nulls. Wobble is dead: x.com/zachariaspro/s…

2026 JAN 29

@ahfultz Because if you look at it piece by piece, you can say oh, there’s a wobble there and there’s a wobble in this other place. To say it is overall more wobbly should be quantifiable.

@ahfultz is it possible to quantify the deviations from a hypothetical smooth curve for an a given segment, and then visualizing the degree of deviation over time? eg running two month segments.

@ahfultz Wiggle wiggle. Care to speculate the drift? May keeps going this way a bit—and Feb 3? What happens then?

2026 JAN 28

@ahfultz @STP48315 @zachariaspro yeah, I got to say that kind of thing really pops the bubble of “the elites know everything “

@diegomycat @STP48315 @zachariaspro At least bezos has a launch pad and a rocket next to his bunker lol. Zuckerberg built his in Hawaii... where the new south pole will be 🤣

IERS data shows Earth's primary rotational stabilization mechanism has severely degraded: Earth's natural wobble (which has kept the pole stable for thousands of years) has collapsed by 97% since 2020. Observational findings suggest that periodic wobble (especially Chandler and Annual) used to overpower and mask a subtle but constant pull from massive structures at the core-mantle boundary (LLSVPs) trying to drag the pole toward a secondary equilibrium rotational axis along its perpendicular bearing (~75°W). The system appears so degraded that without normal periodic wobble, there's little left to stabilize the pole. Every two weeks when the Sun and Moon align in a way that temporarily reduces their gravitational grip on Earth, the pole lurches toward 75°W. We're seeing 1:1 reactions directly from simple tidal forcing nulls. We've confirmed this signal 3 times in a row (Dec 27, Jan 13, Jan 20) with only a 1-in-8,000 chance it's coincidence. The next test is Feb 5, and the alignment windows get 100x deeper through March 2026. The pole has been slowly drifting toward ~75°W for 50 years (+5.7 meters total), but now with periodic wobble missing, there's nothing of significance to counteract the acceleration outside of seasonal steering and the lunisolar cycle. Whether the system can persist in this state or not and for how long remains unknown. @rookisaacman @NASAAdmin If there isn't a team at NASA rigorously tackling this problem right now, I feel very strongly that there should be.

@ahfultz @STP48315 @zachariaspro Agreed.

@diegomycat @STP48315 @zachariaspro Most can't or won't, true. But if you alert people, many too busy otherwise will learn this and will try to survive. And ironically, it's precisely those people with the will and means to survive that are the ideal candidates to rebuild civilization.

@ahfultz @STP48315 @zachariaspro Of course, if this work is correct about warning signals, maybe survivability increases substantially.

@ahfultz @STP48315 @zachariaspro I agree that the simulations have indicated certain places that are likely to be survivable. The thing is you have to be in that place, and you have to be prepared to survive. And I know that some people are doing that. But most people can’t, and won’t.

@ahfultz @ArdentAnathema @s547bay @zachariaspro I am skeptical that this generation will fare so well. But there is probably a lot of gold stashed around the New Valley of the Sun.

@diegomycat @ArdentAnathema @s547bay @zachariaspro A few hundred million will survive. Younger Dryas saw a 5% biome populations survival rate with a few dozen extinctions 🤪

@ahfultz @STP48315 @zachariaspro Since any survival in this scenario is highly speculative, and depends entirely on being at the right place at the exactly right time with the right equipment, under the right circumstances, which may not even happen for the best of the preppers, alerting is completely pointless.

@STP48315 @zachariaspro Alert people which we can argue would be bad if done in masse. What is the ethical thing to do? Let people die w/o panic, or give some of those people a chance to survive even if everyone chimps out around them? What would you do?

@ahfultz @ArdentAnathema @s547bay @zachariaspro Also after the tilt there are no people so gold/silver not so useful either 🤪

@ArdentAnathema @s547bay @zachariaspro Also, after the tilt there is no BIS so all currencies become useless 😜