Dirty Frog

今天我把近6年BTC历史交易数据，开源到Github了： github.com/bwjoke/BTC-Tra… 2020年5月1日至今4万多条订单，17万多条成交明细， 两轮完整牛熊2000多天日夜博弈，全在这套数据里。 AI时代，最宝贵的就是上下文。 你在整个互联网，可能都很难找到这种等级的 真金白银二级市场交易上下文数据，任你下载使用。 去年11月，我把Bitmex只读Api Key公开一两周时， 还没龙虾，就少数网友vibe了一些数据分析、产品。 比如： @WeWill_Rocky 做的 wsnb.online 我自己做的交易时光机：x.com/coolish/status… 当时其他一些相关内容：x.com/coolish/status… 现在更多人有了龙虾、爱马仕， 把个人二级交易真金白银数据喂给AI Agent这件事， 门槛大大降低，更多人能做了，也有了更高的含金量。 所以秉承Open Intelligence理念， 我想向这个混沌的世界贡献自己的减熵Legacy， 在Hermes-Agent的帮助下， 开源了这个数据仓库， 后续可能尝试自动化定期更新。 只要把这个Github网址 github.com/bwjoke/BTC-Tra… 发给你的龙虾爱马仕，就能指挥它做任何角度的分析， 很好奇，大家对这样一份数据， 能炼化出些什么奇趣的角度？ 希望能在后续看到一些有趣的回响。 Happy vibing & Happy birthday to myself

google: “we can crack bitcoin in 9 minutes and 2029 is deadline to figure out a solution” you know we’re near bear market lows when quantum fud starts trending again. But their best chip has 105 qubits, the attack needs 500,000. that’s like a guy with a ladder saying he’s going to the moon. ETH’s been prepping since 2018, BTC has draft proposals (BIP-360) but no coordinated plan yet. So next 5 years realistically: > quantum hardware improves, stays nowhere near attack-capable > ETH finishes migration first, pressures btc to move > BTC community starts seriously pushing BIP-360 > Satoshi’s coins become the loudest talking point forcing urgency (bottleneck isn’t crypto, it’s consensus) What you can do: if you hold coins in old wallets or addresses you’ve already spent from, pay extra attention. those have exposed public keys. Beyond that: > don’t use taproot (bc1p) for long-term cold storage > use native segwit (bc1q). your public key stays hidden until you spend > this doesn’t make risk zero, but it greatly reduces your exposure window THIS IS NOT a doomsday story. If you sell your bag over quantum fud in a bear market and miss the next ath you have no one to blame but yourself lol. same energy as the people who panic sold at 16k over ftx in 2022. Breathe! Accumulate!! we’ve seen this movie before.

*VERY IMPORTANT* Here’s my thesis on the exact timing of the next cycle bottom. I’m using the horizontal axis (time) to pinpoint the next major capitulation point. Here’s the data regarding the days elapsed from all-time high to cycle low for each era: 1st Halving (2012): 406 days 2nd Halving (2016): 363 days 3rd Halving (2020): 376 days 4th Halving (2024): Pending Based on these historical timeframes, there’s a high statistical probability that the next major bottom will occur in october – november 2026. During that specific window, regardless of price action, aggressive dollar cost averaging is the correct play. I will be accumulating heavily. However, I have already started buying since we entered the $60,000 range, even though the time window hasn't hit yet. Here is the logic behind my strategy. I operate on two dimensions: the horizontal axis (time) and the vertical axis (price). Most retail traders only focus on the Vertical Axis ("I'll buy at X price"). The risk here is obvious: if price doesn't hit your level, you get front-run and miss the entire cycle. The safe zone is often the zone where you get left behind. The horizontal axis is the hedge against that risk. It dictates a "middle-risk, middle-return" approach: when the date arrives, you buy, irrespective of price. By hybridizing these two, I can accumulate with limited downside. Reviewing the $60k call. In october, when BTC was trading at $114,000, I said I would be a strong buyer in the $60,000 range. At the time, sentiment was euphoric. People claimed that a drop to $60k was impossible and that BTC would never fall below $100k again. I don’t spend energy on critics. I stay composed and objective while others are distracted. We have now hit that $60,000 range, and my price thesis played out. However, the risk of missing a lower bottom still exists, which is why we must also prepare for the horizontal axis target: october-november 2026. Summary of the strategy: My accumulation plan is a diversified DCA approach across two axes: 1. Horizontal Axis: Oct-Nov 2026 is a strong BUY (Regardless of price). 2. Vertical Axis: Below $60,000 is a strong BUY (Regardless of time). If either condition is met, I will execute daily buy orders of $500,000. Also, please don’t forget about the institutional-grade on-chain indicator called NUPL. The blue zone on the chart historically signals the absolute generational bottom. – 2018 Bear Market – COVID Crash – 2022 Bottom It caught every single one without exceptions. Currently, we have not yet entered the blue zone. Matter of fact, we’re still pretty far from it. I wouldn’t be surprised to see bitcoin between $45k and $50k by the end of 2026. That’s my ultimate bottom price target, where I’d feel confident going all in. The market is volatile right now, but we will survive this phase and see the next bull run together. I’ve been here since 2013. Have you ever seen BTC crash 99% within minutes because an exchange collapsed? This 50% drop is absolutely nothing, and like I said before, it’s all going according to plan. When I make a new move in the market, I’ll say it here publicly because I want you to win. All you have to do is turn on notifications and pay close attention. Many people will regret not following me sooner, trust me.

HODL

@x101basebsc 0xb910b85db100f26e2b7d736f41477ecb8be53041

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Who's Building? ft @z3thnft from @BitBoySE & @BitboyOne Powered by @cubexch 00:24 unboxing the SOLBoy 01:23 integrating @CudisWellness health data into a game 02:30 inspired by nostalgia 03:18 all games played will earn rewards, dApps loaded & mine bitcoin?? 04:20 the process of developing the device 05:55 built a native OS 07:11 really in the trenches 08:31 wen @solana release??? 10:10 memecoin games 👀

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Two of my favorite things I received this trip

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@cz_binance looking good with the BitBoy

@BitboyOne Are we back?

Are we back?

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