Dirty Genos
551 posts

Dirty Genos
@dirtygenos
All Things Income | Trade assets don’t marry them | All trades have a different time to exit | Opinion Only NFA





$SPX Since the Oct 2022 bear market low: 41 weeks up → 12.3% reset 38 weeks up → 10.8% reset 42 weeks up → ~10.2% reset Ever wonder how often resets happen? About every 40 weeks. Same structure. Same behavior. Markets don’t crash from exhaustion. They reset, shake people out, then continue. Could we dip more? Sure. Calling for a waterfall here is late. This is where weak hands get forced out. Cycle intact. Enjoy the weekend. $SPY $QQQ @Optuma






@RichieD2301 My thoughts haven’t changed at all. Still think we’re going higher soon, still think we put the lows in last Friday and I’ll still be buying dips trading it long because the risk is shorting, not longing.



Adjusted it to 2.35 std devs because I wanted to get the 2022 bear in due to 4 year cycle fractal/similarities. 60d forward returns: 100% win rate, median +22.7% 365d forward returns: 100% win rate, median +122% Worst MAE across all signals was -17% (the 2022 instance, which had a further leg down into the FTX collapse in Nov). Median MFE (1yr): +157% -- the best-case upside within a year was consistently enormous


The Alysa Liu / Eileen Gu moment might be the clearest proof that men aren’t as shallow as people claim. Eileen’s an international model. Alysa looks like the cute goth girl from your history class. And yet, men are overwhelmingly swooning for Alysa just because she’s bubbly.



















