vp

@dampedspring i would expect crypto to be much lower.

As a long term saver I don't particularly see any "generational" buys or sells right here. Mostly wiggles. My beta portfolio has a risk target of roughly 8-10% per annum which is fine for me. I'm running at 80% of my risk target (20% cash). Seems about right. As an alpha trader trying to beat markets my positioning is medium size vs target risk. I'm short stocks and reducing shorts into dips Short notes and reducing shorts into dips Long and wrong very short term STIR which will recover some losses if the Fed doesn't hike in the next three meetings. Again for alpha but also somewhat for beta I could go long some bonds if we get real rates and risk premiums 15-25bp higher I could go long some stocks if we get that risk premium in bonds and equity multiples contract a bit. Like somewhere in the 6300's level on SPX USD meh. Oil no edge trading headlines but sorta like selling dec oil above 80 Gold. If bonds and stocks get to my levels then I'd probably buy some gold Crypto. Im degen long a coin at 69420 but frankly given the buying by BTCDT's financed with prefs and dilutive equity offerings is massive and NOT causing a rally I am genuinely sceptical. Seems like real selling. Dont understand why it's trading so crappy given the essentially huge inelastic buying.

It’s crazy how quickly some crypto libertarians turned into crypto fascists in an effort to keep making number go up

@ASvanevik ok good cuz i think a lot parents got covid ptsd

BTW “homeschooling” sounds like the child is literally at home, with no other children, and you as the parent are teaching. That’s not what I’m bullish on. What I am bullish on: moving beyond the factory model of today’s education. And we will get infra that enables that.

Homeschooling is obviously gonna be massive in the next years. Just like social media replaced news. And onchain is replacing banks. Pods will replace schools. We just need the infra: 1/ Learning platforms 2/ Find other parents 3/ Physical space How can I long this??

@ArthuronHL @blknoiz06 anything to extract more from crypto retail!

I think listing Chinese AI stocks on Hyperliquid HIP-3 markets could be a good niche. They are hard to access, have huge volatility, and are talked about a ton on X (eg Minimax), so have that virality factor. I know a lot of people who would like to speculate on these.

@PauloMacro why didnt he just buy some world liberty financial coin like the others

Full blown Tammany Hall

@maxpain_crypto @BobLoukas such abstract thinking, surely will be an identical fractal of last bear market

@BobLoukas Looking at this chart, at what phase do you think we are?

Bitcoin price action remains horrendous. Very weak. After the recent flush out, a natural, sharp counter trend bounce would be expected, but was not forthcoming. Has to reclaim $72k to even consider a counter-trend move. Just bear market things.

@AustinBarack any reason q4 was better than the previous two quarters combined

Some additional stats below from the recent Messari research report

$GRASS is trading at under 4x Q4 2025 annualized revenue. Revenue is growing at 60-70% quarter over quarter which would put the current annualized revenue closer to $80MM (2.2x rev multiple to FDV). Margins are strong and AI Labs cannot buy enough of the data Grass is selling. By my estimates, it is likely trading at under 4x EBITDA for a business growing like a rocketship. One of the most obvious token investments in crypto today and people are missing the forest for the trees because value is going to reinvest in the business and grow future cash flows vs. into buybacks. With this setup and a very clear structure where all value accrues to the token, Grass has the potential imo to be one of the strongest performing assets of 2026. We'll see.

@0xsmac might as well just note the close at 5pm est friday tbh

will you be watching the super bowl or observing the weekly close smolting wonders

@The_Bogfather @ZeMirch Why? Volatility is what traders seek

@ZeMirch Facts we’re all clinically insane for still trading this

Everyone is saying 60k wasn’t the bottom (I don’t think so either) but I dont see any arguments on here that it was. I wonder if everyone will be right

@MikeZaccardi Sure was a lot of volume traded down there.

$IBIT bitcoin ETF best day since Nov 11, 2024... but she's off the highs... and still -4.2% last 2 days...

@SplitCapital did u bid

I see about $3 billion in NET sales on Binance BTCUSDT in the last day. About $1 billion in net sales 4 hours ago. Haven't seen this level of volume and activity in many many months.

@Cryptopathic @notthreadguy who the hell is kevin walsh and why did he do this??

@notthreadguy the DoJ found more private keys in the email dump

everytime i think nobody has coins left to sell bitcoin drops another $1k in 5 minutes

@DegenSensei v reversal seems highly unlikely. tho were getting to the point of atleast some mean reversion trade short term. few are appreciating possibility of extended bear imo. would probably be best long term to flush the grift.

Impatient multi-cycle participants should know better than acting like first-cyclers You are not in a rush to buy a "bottom", Bitcoin will likely range there for multiple months to form a new base before starting a new uptrend Sentiment trading is useless at this stage as the actual bottom tends to be lower than people expect and the final sell-off is the most violent one (see BTC 4k nuke and 16k nuke as reference) Still dead bodies, apathy and liquidations to come along the way

@TraderNoah @TopherGMI well put

+1, some thoughts: 1. Past crypto cycles elevated many people that should have never been given the outsized voice that they received. It took time to make clear who deserved it and who didn't, but now it's all known. 2. We had too many fast money capital providers, and too few slow money capital providers. The funds that were in a position to move this space forward largely used their position to extract value at the expense of others via negative sum games 3. While the game was shrinking, many of the remaining participants were holding out hope for some last ditch exit opportunity (think dats + 4 year cycle mentality) For a longer read on the subject, here's an article I wrote about the history of crypto funds and market participants about a year ago (x.com/TraderNoah/sta…). We are now in a position where crypto either dies, or we build something of value. The uncertainty of its death is necessary to dissuade unethical participants from staying in the space, and we need to churn a larger % of "crypto traders" relative to long-term participants so that price action doesn't lead to incorrect conclusions or negative fundamental outcomes. I'd like to think that the probability of death is low, but I'm aware that it exists.

@ryanberckmans up 70% after being down 75% entire bull run, muted institutional interest via etfs, l1 24h dex vol half of solanas even tho memes are dead, do ppl use other l2 besides base? idk man

looking only at prices, you're right but prices aren't the whole story, not even close eth had a dark age 2023-Q1 2025, with scaling difficulties, internal dysfunction, and the previous admin trying to kill eth much moreso than btc today, we have GENIUS, L1+L2 thriving, institutions coming onchain, and ETHBTC up +70% from cycle lows despite the crash ethereum is winning past price performance will not predict future performance ETH will heavily outperform BTC from here on 2y-10y timeline

A few years ago I wrote a guest article in Bankless on how Bitcoin is a toxic industry leader. The thinking was not so much around quantum or security budget- although security budget was top of mind then- but rather that BTC stands for nothing besides fiat collapse and has no use. Bitcoin's "bad deal" created an inherently unstable long term investment thesis for BTC, or so we argued many times over the years. These chickens may be coming home to roost now as the public is actively negotiating a potential re-rating of Bitcoin in the context of broader market changes, including geopolitical instability (BTC is not actually a safe haven), metals volatility, and BTC posting disappointing 4-year cycle results (less than 2x, whereas previous 4y cycle was 3.5x). The overall problem is that the religion of Bitcoin taking the oxygen out of the narrative interface with the public (they've nothing to actually build and primarily focus on marketing and coalition building), plus scams generally pissing off the public from getting involved and doing their own research, plus Bitcoiners habitually and loudly taking credit for eth's onchain growth, has left the investment public largely ignorant of what's actually going on with Ethereum hypergrowing as a global public institution and economic hub. Within Ethereum, many of our people and orgs are now doing a transformatively bigger and better job in educating the public about modern ethereum vs a year ago. That's great. We're firing on all cylinders. But Bitcoin (and our own legacy strategy and culture, now fixed) has created an enormous gap to close. That'll naturally take time. We'll look back enviously on these low prices, as we already do on the old down periods of 2017, 2020, 2022, Q1 2025, etc. When you buy ETH, you're buying an asset that is under-marketed and under-studied, and currently being dragged down by a confidence crisis in Bitcoin. ETH to multi trillion in due course Believe in somETHing

@ledgerstatus dont think many considering prolonged bear market; this prob cryptos worse ‘cycle’ from dev pov. memes, grifts, celeb hogwash. wud prefer multi year cleanse tbh

Eth and Sol and below 200 week average. Historically good buy zones. Bitcoin would have to go sub $60k but historically it reaching such a moving average would mean the bear market lows have been reached. The opportunity is largely now higher, though it may take time.

@0xSleuth_ 1. theres too many 2. most do nothing/earn nothing or have no reason to exist 3. theres just better vehicles to speculate (sports, prediction mrkt, 0dte opts) 4. crypto been a giga grift (trump melania kanye etc)

aped some coins $ETH and $BTC not sure how long im going to hold tbh, looking at some altcoin charts they somehow look even worse than november structure has completely broken down for eg look at coins like $UNI, it just hit a new 4-year low even their rev-sharing update which is meant to be major major news at this point i would rather cashout more and ape more stocks [x.com/0xSleuth_/stat…] onchain is still alive (with very short time-spans) but crypto alts have just been completely embarrassed and i dont see any reason as for how/why this could change

@QwQiao what % probability do u assign 4 yr cycle breaks bearishly, bear market extends 1-2 years. supercycle for bears

bear market astrology - ogs sell >100k. selling above the 6-fig psychological accomplishment after holding for a decade+. below this round number they'll wait it out. - etf holders (retail and hedge funds) accelerate selling below 100k. they r simply trend-following paperhands. - at some point (80-90k) these sellers exhaust and more long term buyers come in. a local bottom forms. - we pump to near 100k making everyone believe we r back. typical bear market rally that makes bears doubt their view. - "macro" actually deteriorates and we bleed to 60-70k - 6-9mo of consolidation in this area including one final capitulation leg down. no one believes we'll ever come back except for 5 ppl on this site. - new cycle begins.

@dampedspring this made me lol. thanks!

69,420 bid if you need liquidity