Redistricting Rabbit

Seems we have a growing consensus that PA will lose a House seat next decade. So, here's my dream congressional map of PA with 16 districts. There are five safe Dem seats, five safe GOP, and six competitive districts. And yes, Harrisburg and Reading are together at last. #PApol

@Speeding_m Biden +6 in 2020 and Harris +2 in 2024. So, a little bluer than the current version.

@districtrabbit How blue is 1?

After the 2030 Census, #Pennsylvania will lose a House seat. In this map, I've drawn 16 districts that will be roughly equal in population by the end of this decade. I'd really like some feedback. Have I respected PA's regions, or not? Feel free to ask me anything about the map.

@PAMapper I don't either, but it does end up helping to make the 8th more competitive than it would be otherwise. If the 8th ends up being Luzerne, Lackawanna, Wayne, Pike, and Monroe County next decade (those five counties are roughly the right size for a district), it's like Trump +11.

@districtrabbit Not bad. I don’t love taking the 8th into Northampton.

@ZFlawles1s Absolutely, and this is such an astute point. :) PA's geography works best with around 20 House districts. It means that Bucks, Chester, and Delaware County all get to have a district to themselves. The one benefit of 16 districts is being able to combine Reading and Allentown.

@districtrabbit PA losing a district genuinely sucks given its geography. it becomes so hard to work with

@DerekHinPGH Sorry for the delay! PA-12 was exactly Harris+28 in 2024 and Biden+28.5 in 2020. My main goal with PA-12 specifically was to not divide the Black population in Allegheny County, as the current map does. My PA-12 is a little over 21% Black, if that's of any interest.

@districtrabbit PA-12?

@chuckpascal Understandable. :)

@districtrabbit I mean by the criteria it is good, but don't like being in this 16th though.

@DerekHinPGH In the 2024 election: PA-7 was Harris +4 (and Biden +8 in 2020) PA-8 was Trump +9 (Trump +3 in 2020) PA-10 was Trump +4 (Trump +3 in 2020) PA-11 was Trump +9 (Trump +8 in 2020) I appreciate the question, and I'm happy to answer any follow-ups! :)

@districtrabbit Partisan leans for PA-11, PA-10, PA-7, and PA-8?

@Malliard Imagine being the House member who represents Alaska. :) There's not much I can do about the 15th here, given how sparsely populated that area is, but I'll play around with the map and try some different configurations!

@districtrabbit I think that 15th is too much land for one person to cover.

@JeffDitzler Thanks, Jeff! Those are good suggestions, and that's how I typically handle that part of PA in my other maps, but I've been coming around to the idea that Reading should be with the Lehigh Valley. It only becomes possible when PA drops to 16 House seats, so it's hard to resist.

@districtrabbit Not bad. I might try to keep all of Northampton in the 7th, and balance it by moving more of Berks into the 9th and Luzerne into the 8th.

@tschakey This is a great suggestion, but I kind of love my 7th district as is. It's almost 30% Hispanic (it combines Reading with the Lehigh Valley), and I'd fear that pushing it into northern Bucks County will dilute it. But I think you're right about Bucks not needing to be kept intact!

@districtrabbit I’d probably do a lower Bucks plus northeast Philly district, give the Quakertown area to the Lehigh valley seat, and any remaining central Bucks population to the Montgomery seat

@tschakey Great to see you back on here, Jacob! Also, that's a very cool banner photo you have (that old map of PA, which I've never seen before).

Lots of blue municipalities in gray here! Certain candidates might want to consider that fact before implying people without degrees aren’t smart enough for politics.

@MattGrossmann Kevin Kiley, a Congressman from CA, introduced a bill last year to ban mid-decade redistricting, and it's profoundly upsetting to me that not a single Democrat has supported it. Somehow, Dems manage to suck both morally and strategically. And I say this as a lifelong Democrat!

We will likely now see redistricting battles each cycle for the foreseeable future: nytimes.com/2026/05/09/us/… With ambitious partisanship, fewer constraints from national or state courts, & precision via shorter timelines, that likely means less seat responsiveness to vote shifts

@LynnSTeague Agreed 100%, and well said, Lynn!

When thinking about whether to redistrict now or not, SC legislators should consider the impact on voters of playing such obvious self-interested games. Confidence in the fairness of the political process is already very low. This wouldn’t help either party.

@WDMelections Thank you so much, this all helps tremendously! I truly appreciate it, and you might just be my newest favorite person on here. :)

@districtrabbit The concept is: shifting non-competitive seats does not affect seat share, but the equal and opposite shifts in the competitive region can make a fairer map. I hope this helps! /end

I've been working on a new Congressional map of Pennsylvania that uses the 2025 population estimates that the Census Bureau recently released. Any thoughts on this map? I tried to make a fair, compact map. There are 5 Dem seats, 5 GOP seats, and 6 that are competitive. #PApol

@shsnnsdn Haha, this comment made me laugh. I'd be curious if you had any thoughts on why Philly has been losing people (the northeast part of the city, in particular).

@districtrabbit i'm a philadelphia nationalist, the southeast will rise again

I made this simple map to show the population shifts from 2020 to 2025 in #Pennsylvania. I grouped counties together based on whether they were gaining or losing population. Basically, eastern PA (besides Philly) has been growing steadily. South Central PA especially stands out.

@Hickhead00 @billpeduto Definitely feel free to let me know if you wanted me to provide the 2020 to 2025 population change for any specific counties in the Pittsburgh area (or anywhere else).

@districtrabbit @billpeduto What led you to split up the Pittsburgh counties into 3 regions?

@Hickhead00 Sorry that I didn't respond to this sooner! I think I only split the Pittsburgh counties into two regions, unless we count Armstrong/Indiana County as being part of greater Pittsburgh. But either way, Allegheny County is losing people, as are nearby counties (besides Butler).

@FairDistrictsPA Thank you so much for the kind words! With nearly all of the maps I draw, I am looking ahead to what I think the 2030 Census will show in terms of PA's population distribution. So, I draw overpopulated districts in the western part of PA, and underpopulated ones in the east.

@districtrabbit There's lots to like about this, but with a +/- population deviation over 10,000 it would never be enacted. The PA legislature has interpreted the law as requiring a 0% population deviation for congressional districts, which is part of why we need a reasonable deviation in law.

Seems we have a growing consensus that PA will lose a House seat next decade. So, here's my dream congressional map of PA with 16 districts. There are five safe Dem seats, five safe GOP, and six competitive districts. And yes, Harrisburg and Reading are together at last. #PApol

@Sheepsk98577935 You're correct, Allegheny County lost roughly 25,000 people (not Pittsburgh proper, just for clarification), and Philly has lost about 30,000, but this map shows the changes at the county level. Keep in mind, I grouped counties together, aggregating the population changes.

@districtrabbit Pittsburgh and Philly lost 55,000 people. Your chart isnt accurate.

@TobyThornapple The estimates are far from perfect, but they can still give us a good sense of the trends and where things might end up by the time of the next Census. There are states where the estimates are probably better than others, and I would imagine that in PA, they are fairly accurate.

@districtrabbit Until the census comes along, these are merely estimates that are often wrong.