WDM Gerrymandering Analysis
661 posts
WDM Gerrymandering Analysis
@WDMelections
The most accurate gerrymandering analysis. Visualize entire redistricting plans via WDM and BV plots. article here https://t.co/sYbVpuLKxw be nice 😎😎😎
Katılım Eylül 2021
80 Takip Edilen81 Takipçiler
Full interactive scatterplot of how GOP candidate coalitions in Georgia compare with one another across races.
The extreme anti-correlation between Jones and Raff/Carr suggests to me that Jackson is very much in this. claude.ai/public/artifac…
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@lxeagle17 @TheArgumentMag Very informative and well-written article.
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Today @TheArgumentMag, we tested one of the media's pet theories and find that social media doesn't explain the vibecession.
It's convenient to think people got mad about a good economy because they saw gloomy TikToks. But there's no evidence for that.
theargumentmag.com/p/we-tested-on…
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@StatisticUrban You can also create gerrymanders in each of these states using compact districts. Requiring extreme compactness changes little.
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@SeanTrende MA is not a gerrymander. In fact, it could hardly be more fair. The MA discussion is an insight into how people view redistricting plans, which is typically backwards.
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The "Is Massachusetts a Gerrymander" question is so interesting. I just ran some back-of-the-envelope simulations without political data and trying to keep districts compact while preserving town/city lines. The result? 1/
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The 2026 Tennesseegerrymander:
To gerrymander in a state where V0 is far from 50%, cluster the districts around V0. The SD of the district vote shares is a narrow σ = 6.0.
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@davidshor @SeanTrende the wdm method is the best method out there, and that's only the beginning...
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@SeanTrende I really wish Republicans would try to find a partisan criteria they liked or at least try to engage with it beyond relegating the whole category as a Dem conspiracy theory
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First, you can't really ban gerrymandering, you can only cabin it. And that only works if you have precise, quantifiable measures with crisp cutoffs. No weighing, no multi-factor tests, etc. Just something like "no splitting counties or municipalities more than necessary." 1/
Andrew Fleischman@ASFleischman
Both parties gerrymander whenever possible. This is bad. Neither party will ever unilaterally disarm. That is predictable. So why not just call a truce and pass a law to restrict it everywhere?
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@SeanTrende I do have quantifiable measures, i just haven't released my advanced models yet.
(as i have stated before, using my methods, the UT legislature would have won the UT redistricting case)
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@ChristianHeiens in the center of cities, 50k districts will be naturally super-packed with Ds with no way to unpack them. This naturally biases many small district maps in favor of Rs.
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Perhaps the best path that Democrats would have to “ban gerrymandering” at the Federal level would be to get another 27 states to ratify the Congressional Apportionment Amendment, which would cap each House of Representatives district at 50,000 people.
It remains the only amendment that was originally part of the Bill of Rights to not be ratified, and it’s still technically pending before the states for approval or rejection.
50,000 people per district would be akin to having over 6,600 members of the House of Representatives. It would be functionally impossible to gerrymander districts that small, and we’d instead be dealing with an entirely different crisis on our hands.
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Data for the new Florida map has been uploaded to Dave's Redistricting Act.
Under the new map, the 9th, 14th, 22nd, and 25th districts would go from Harris seats to Trump seats, all of them carried by around 10 points.
davesredistricting.org/join/560765fd-…
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@Center4Politics @LarrySabato @kkondik @JMilesColeman Gerrymanders are getting so boring now...
x.com/WDMelections/s…
WDM Gerrymandering Analysis@WDMelections
Following the latest trend in redistricting, just out, the 2026 FL proposed congressional map is another intentional gerrymander with Rs expected to win 22-24 of 28 seats.
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NEW @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball
@kkondik & @JMilesColeman assess the proposed new Florida Republican gerrymander. Rs will try to win up to four new seats, but those gains are not all guaranteed.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ho…
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The red and blue in the map provided to @FoxNews (an interesting a palate choice in itself to plaintiffs) appears based on 2024 presidential results (which I do consider the best barometer on a map's partisan performance).
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Redistricting Twitter, anyone have a DRA version of the new Florida draft?
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dra found here:
x.com/RedistrictNet/…
The Redistrict Network@RedistrictNet
And here is the proposed Florida congressional map in DRA again for those who haven't already seen it: #viewmap::560765fd-df34-4264-ab24-ad04eb7a850d" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::…
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Following the latest trend in redistricting, just out, the 2026 FL proposed congressional map is another intentional gerrymander with Rs expected to win 22-24 of 28 seats.
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@districtrabbit The concept is: shifting non-competitive seats does not affect seat share, but the equal and opposite shifts in the competitive region can make a fairer map.
I hope this helps! /end
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@districtrabbit For example, shifting #3,2,11,14, and 16 each 2 points to the right gives the same overall 10 ppt shift, then shifting one district in the middle 10 pts to the left, or 5 dists in the middle 2 pts to the left gives Ds more seat share, resulting in a fairer map.
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I've been working on a new Congressional map of Pennsylvania that uses the 2025 population estimates that the Census Bureau recently released.
Any thoughts on this map? I tried to make a fair, compact map. There are 5 Dem seats, 5 GOP seats, and 6 that are competitive. #PApol
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