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FI investor
5K posts
FI investor
@Hickhead00
- FI PM & real estate investor. Politics, investing, investor psychology, food, travel, family.
New York, NY Katılım Haziran 2011
806 Takip Edilen242 Takipçiler
@Hickhead00 @nominalthoughts @LollyAnarchist @sigmahamster2 @m1tchvm @AlexReimer1 building denser would alleviate these things but that goes against landowners' interests, which is also why land is more expensive, it goes back to class conflict.
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I love this trick from baby boomers. Make things insanely unaffordable and do not raise workers’ wages. Then, complain that young people spend too much money on frivolous activities like eating lunch.
Mikli@CryptoMikli
Kevin O’Leary says Gen Z is financially cooked when people making $70K a year are spending $28 on lunch
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@femaleprostate @nominalthoughts @LollyAnarchist @sigmahamster2 @m1tchvm @AlexReimer1 Also, land is more expensive, and it used to be nearly free to tie into utilities. No complex engineering planning, no impact fees, no tie in fees, these fees drive up the cost of building and encourage larger homes to offset these fixed costs, which can be $20-$40k per home
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@femaleprostate @nominalthoughts @LollyAnarchist @sigmahamster2 @m1tchvm @AlexReimer1 You know… if we built houses like we built them in 1963, the cost to build those houses would be much much much lower. No AC, 1/4 homes lacked complete plumbing? Avg size per person per
Home - 400 sq ft then, 1,000 today. No garage/car port.
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@jamesjansson @PalmerLuckey @AOC He said this “Most of the $2.3B purchase went to them on account of our shared ownership structure.” - so is he lying??
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@PalmerLuckey @AOC To be precise about how you exploited, you paid your engineers less than their true value, which is meh. But your whole company is based on a legal and labor system in China that is HORRIFIC.
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The single largest form of theft in America is wage theft. $50 billion a year are stolen from American workers.
If a billionaire amasses their wealth by underpaying their full-time workers so severely that they must rely on food assistance and government programs to survive, then no, that wealth was not earned by one individual - it was a wealth transfer subsidized by underpaid American workers and the public who get stuck with the bill for large corporations free-riding off our systems.
The point is less about individual morality. It’s more about how our current economic reality of shattering inequality rewards screwing over workers and exploiting essential systems at scale.
We’re talking monopoly power. Rent-seeking. Wage theft. Profiteering. Stock buybacks. Destabilizing housing markets. Companies using SNAP/EBT to underwrite their wages. Massive government subsidies or contracts to corporations following lobbying and dark money in politics with little to no oversight or accountability.
Some people get enraged that I draw attention to this. That’s on them. Let them call me shrill, dumb, inexperienced, girly, uneducated - these folks will say anything to distract from or undercut the truth that working people are getting screwed, and giving people a fair shake means we must have a grown conversation about reigning in abuse of power.
Marco Foster@MarcoFoster_
AOC: “There’s a certain level of wealth and accumulation that is unearned. You can’t earn a billion dollars. You just can’t earn that. You can get market power, you can break rules, you can abuse labor laws, you can pay people less than what they’re worth, but you can’t earn that”
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@flaminhottweets @ryxcommar again, this is about equal splits of urban, suburban, and rural land.
its about FAIRNESS, not compactness, not "gerrymandering"
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You could probably gerrymander New York State in heavy favor of Dems if you have the balls to split every single avenue in Manhattan into its own congressional district.
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@SwannMarcus89 Fentanyl destroys the brain… these people would be better off on involuntary drug rehabilitation centers than prison, but failing that they are better off in prison where they have a chance to get sober.
Ps - Pratt is still a complete idiot
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@SwannMarcus89 It’s a subset of that everyone hates. The ones that won’t get help bc of drugs, that won’t seek shelters bc of drugs, so they live outside in tent cities/ on the street, and do drugs. They are the ones that used go to jail until people stopped prosecuting their petty crimes.
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My key takeaway from the Los Angeles Mayoral debate is that Spencer Pratt and Karen Bass are terrible and Nithya Raman is the dumbest person to ever live
Best of luck to LA! You’re going to need it no matter what happens
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A lot of people objected to, were even outraged, that restricting the revenue analysis to American software workers.
But let’s think about how much Anthropic revenue could be international. Excluding China and Russia (Claude not available), the US makes up about 20% of global devs.
But one thing to keep in mind is, to get to $44 billion ARR, the only thing that really matters is devs paying $1k/month. Even Max subscribers don’t move the needle at that scale.
Realistically, devs outside America aren’t expensive enough for this to make financial sense. Median software engineer salary in India (largest international dev market outside US and China) is $30k, is it reasonable believe that Indian firms are casually accepting a 50% cost hike on their software engineers to give them API scale token budgets? Again I believe many, if not most Indian devs are using Claude. But (like myself) my guess is the vast majority are using the much more cost effective subscription and managing limits.
Same story in most other countries. Median software engineer salary in Europe is $60k, in Japan $50k, in Brazil $30k, in Britain $65k . I’m not saying there is zero API usage in these countries, but I think it’s unrealistic to think these countries have anywhere near the casual API spend that US software engineers have.
I think a conservative upper bound on international API revenue is maybe 50%. If we go back to US devs being 20% of the global market, then assuming they have 2X Claude spend intensity seems reasonable.
So at most, the original analysis has a 2X on the denominator. Doesn’t really fundamentally change anything in the order of magnitudes. To the extent software work is driving the Anthropic ARR, either near majorities of devs must be spending thousands per month, or there must be significant super users who are blowing through tens or even hundreds of thousand per month.
Doug Colkitt@0xdoug
I’m really struggling to see how the back of the envelope math on this works out… There are generously 4 million characterized “software workers” in America. That’s pretty broad and includes a lot of people who aren’t really classical engineers don’t produce that much code. That comes out to nearly $1k per month of average Claude spend across every dev in America. Yes, there’s some international usage, but it can’t be that much. Yes there is some non software Cowork usage, but that doesn’t use that many tokens. Yes, some non engineers are using Claude to vibe code, but I really doubt many are spending hundreds per month on. Even if we assume 50% of all software workers are using Claude, that comes out to $2k spend per month per Claude user. Thats 10X more than the highest tier Max subscription. So almost all of Anthropics revenue has to be API billing So the only explanation is that something like 20%+ of software engineers are not only Claude users but on API billing and regularly spending thousands per month. At $5/m Opus tokens that means the average API user has to be going through something like 25 million tokens per day. *OR* the other possibility is API revenue is heavily power law dominated. Maybe there’s just something like 100k super users who are making up the majority of the revenue. For that to work the typical super user would have to be spending on the order of $50k/month and guzzling nearly 1 billion tokens per day.
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@chrisbriem Ahh fair - missed the “downtown” part. At the very least, one would hope it measures all of Manhattan below 57th… but when that misses whole swaths of office space that’s larger than most cities’ “downtown”
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@Hickhead00 I'm unclear the geography of what it actually is measuring. But (as a former resident and fan of NYC) all about urban NYC is odd.
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Here is some funny math. I have no comment if this can/can’t/will/won’t happen but some clearly want the BNY Tower demolished. If it happens, Downtown vacancy drops to bottom of that list other than for the odd NYC number. If true, then even today’s Downtown vacancy problem is U.S. Steel’s fault. Who can explain why?
𝗰𝗵𝗿𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗺@chrisbriem
Pittsburgh far from the worst here in Downtown office vacancy rates.
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@conorsen It does some things very efficiently and others less so… I find it’s abiiity to interact with PDFs to be terribly inefficient.
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@districtrabbit The Pittsburgh MSA is Allegheny county, Armstrong, beaver, Fayette, Lawrence, butler, Washington and WestMoreland.
Candidly, I didn’t realize Lawrence and Fayette were part of the MSA.
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@Hickhead00 Sorry that I didn't respond to this sooner! I think I only split the Pittsburgh counties into two regions, unless we count Armstrong/Indiana County as being part of greater Pittsburgh.
But either way, Allegheny County is losing people, as are nearby counties (besides Butler).
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I made this simple map to show the population shifts from 2020 to 2025 in #Pennsylvania. I grouped counties together based on whether they were gaining or losing population.
Basically, eastern PA (besides Philly) has been growing steadily. South Central PA especially stands out.
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@SwipeWright You’re saying the right hasn’t changed since 2008? I don’t recall election denial in 2008. Or ICE arresting US citizens and stomping on constitutional norms.
The right cartoon would have the left and right running away from the center
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My updated cartoon is unfortunately still relevant.
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@davidvatz @ProHousingPgh DM me if you want - I try to raise this topic to this to any pgh official I can when I speak with them.
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Pittsburgh is currently in the midst of the final stages of Pittsburgh 2050 - the comprehensive plan for Pittsburgh’s next 25 years. Pro-Housing Pittsburgh proposes a vision based on five principles to ensure a future of equitable growth. 🧵
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@ModeledBehavior 1) Maybe foreign policy.
2) Personal friendship.
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Orban has been conservative in some ways, but has acted like a radical in consolidating power.
Magyar could be just as conservative but also more democratic.
Gabriella Hoffman@Gabby_Hoffman
Magyar *is* conservative. He broke away from Orban’s party because the latter was corrupt. It’s not the end of the West. Hungary is lagging behind the Baltics and Poland, who are based countries. That’s shameful. The post-liberal experiment is NOT the solution to Marxist-Leninism. A nation that suffered under Soviet repression shouldn’t be governed by pro-Putin stooges. Putin apologists are anti-Western. This is why a European conservative movement, similar to 🇺🇸 fusionism, is needed on the continent.
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@LumberTrading @BullandBaird Concepts of a framework for a path towards a potential plan.
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Didn’t we have a deal?
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
WHITE HOUSE: TRUMP OPTIMISTIC DEAL CAN BE REACHED WITH IRAN - FOX
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