@N0tAnthonyDavis @jdcmedlock We've said for thirty years "It's the economy, stupid" so everyone has internalized that if they're unhappy it's because of the economy
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Leg Before Teebo
58.8K posts
Leg Before Teebo
@dmesg
Attach the stone of triumph!
Expatistan Katılım Ağustos 2008
991 Takip Edilen641 Takipçiler
@jdcmedlock I think there is a Deep Cultural Rot that people are subconsciously (yet correctly) blaming on the economy
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The funny thing is people rate their own economic circumstances far more favorably now than they did during the Great Recession. This lines up with the data. It's the external economy that rates poorly. Explanations that rely on people not doing well individually don't fit.
Hunter📈🌈📊@StatisticUrban
At the meta level, the vibecession question is simple: either you believe the economy is worse than during the Great Recession, as consumer sentiment implies, despite ~0 empirical evidence to this effect, or you agree that there's a gap between sentiment and material conditions.
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@funplings @hecubian_devil That doesn't explain why homeowners are more pessimistic than renters. Nor why older people are more pessimistic than younger people. Nor why richer people are more pessimistic than poorer people. That's the part that really does need explanation.
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most convincing arguments i've seen so far are
1. inflation - people don't like seeing rapidly increasing nominal costs, no matter what
2. housing - no matter how high employment is and how affordable most things are, the fact that most people simply can't afford to buy a house has a massive psychological toll
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It is genuinely interesting that American economic sentiment is the lowest *ever*. Lower than the Great Recession!
It’s surprising to see so many socialists not really curious about *why* sentiment is so low. Shouldn’t we be eager to understand and explain this?
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Why is Gibraltar more historically important than Tarifa?
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@TroyWagmi @snikles313 @StatisticUrban @lukeisamazing (And not even all of them, since many are current homeowners who benefit from houses being expensive)
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@TroyWagmi @snikles313 @StatisticUrban @lukeisamazing Well true but as people keep pointing out, normal people don't actually care about lines on a chart. The only people impacted by reduced home purchasing power are the relatively few people trying to buy a house.
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they’re still doing the Will Stancil-nomics bullshit, they’re still trying to convince you the economy is fine and things don’t cost more bc some egghead with a chart said so. makes it so much more satisfying to watch their entire ideological project fall apart lol
Basil🧡@LinkofSunshine
The permanent vibecession is here to stay
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@TroyWagmi @snikles313 @StatisticUrban @lukeisamazing But by that same token only about 5 million people even want to buy a home in a given year. That doesn't impact a big part of the population.
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@dmesg @snikles313 @StatisticUrban @lukeisamazing 65% of ppl in the USA own their own home and most have a fixed mortgage payment or no mortgage payment .... this drastically dampens the cpi to the point that it does not accurately capture the actual increase in the cost of buying a home or even renting.
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There are college students putting "Proficient in Word, Excel, and PowerPoint" on their resumes lmao
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@RealJL801 @jimboiwe @fredsoda And both of them are saying "we're spending way too much on inference and can't find a positive ROI from it"
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@bigdumbbuffoon @dog_domain @STLD98 OK but you really do need to address the fact that three quarters of Americans say their personal financial situation is good, because it completely destroys your premise
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@dog_domain @STLD98 They're taking one figure from a comprehensive survey and concluding that negative sentiment is "almost entirely" caused by bad vibes on social media. I don't believe you can read the SHED reports from this year and the last few years and honestly believe that.
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An extremely basic thing to understand on the quantitative side of econ is it's a simplification of the qualitative side. If people have been telling you the economy sucks for 5 years, and your reaction is "actually they're wrong b/c X data", you're out of your depth.
Basil🧡@LinkofSunshine
The permanent vibecession is here to stay
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@bryancsk @KemonomichiNL US lamb and goat are both great but very few Americans eat either of them, unfortunately
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@KemonomichiNL with the exception of beef the meat in the US, especially for pork and chicken, is usually low quality though
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Is this a meme? Is this why Americans look at pictures of chicken rice and ask "where is the flavourings? it looks so plain?"
Romy@Romy_Holland
i was super excited for the food when i went to vietnam and i had a few amazing meals, but pho is a daily staple there and it was super boring and usually didn’t even have herbs. i was there for a month and the best banh mi i’ve eaten is still in palo alto.
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@TroyWagmi @snikles313 @StatisticUrban @lukeisamazing Has there been a divergence between rents and purchase prices in recent years? They usually track each other pretty closely
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@dmesg @snikles313 @StatisticUrban @lukeisamazing The cpi acts like housing inflation for someone with a paid off mortgage is the same as someone who is trying to buy a new home or someone who is renting ... so it masks the actual increase in cost it takes to buy a new home compared to wages, your wage actually buys much less.
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@SRamirez68083 What they mean by "middle class genocide" is "the poors started catching up to us so once-exclusive services aren't exclusive anymore"
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Surely we could see this genocide in the US gini coefficient, or palma ratio, or consumption gini, right?
Real median household income?
Anywhere?
TexasFren 🇺🇸 🤝🇷🇺ZOV@TexasFrenZ
It's just the third worldification of the American economy The middle class has been mostly genocided out of existence. Terminal underemployment of college grads. You are either rich enough not to worry about it or you are with the rest of the 99.99% getting fucked by inflation
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@letushead @rickjeff78 The bases are mostly vacated already, and the oil is already unsanctioned (on an "emergency" basis that will probably never end). In practical terms Iran achieved its war aims in the second week of the war and is just waiting for the US to write that down.
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@rickjeff78 Rick, you're becoming fake news. Correct, there is no deal, but very doubtful Trump will agree to what Iran demands: remove US blockade, abandon bases, unfreeze money. Pure delusional thinking, IMO.
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It is obvious now based on reporting: The deal is 100% done and completed.
Trump will sell it as "No Deal" for a month while Iran quietly opens the Strait for "environmental fees".
Iran gets their tollbooth and keeps their Uranium. A complete and total surrender by Trump.
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We should just chop a decimal off
Hydro Spinning@SenatorLuma
a lot of people are pretending not to understand that what americans want is for price levels to go down. they don’t care about real wage increases or inflation rates, they want nominal price levels to decrease. there is nothing you can do about this.
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@BillWiIdin Stupid take. Houses are giant pits you throw money into. Rent somewhere cheap and put your money into equities.
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@jeffdeist That's still true. The college wage premium is much higher over a lifetime than anybody's student debt
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Revisionism. Boomers overwhelmingly told millennials a college degree was a baseline necessity and student loans were “good” debt that would pay off in much higher earnings.
sparkyt.xlm@SparkyTXLM
Should have went into a trade. Nobody forced you to take out that student loan or choose the profession you decided to choose. You did that on your own. Learn and adapt kids. Learn and adapt
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@ribaudo_nick Right but like 1% of the workforce makes the Federal minimum wage; it might as well not exist at this point because the market floor on labor is much higher in most of the country
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Yea dude it’s because everything people need to live is up 20-30% since 2020 if we’re being nice, and the federal minimum wage is $7.25 what the fuck is the shock here
unusual_whales@unusual_whales
BREAKING: Americans are feeling worse about the economy now than they were during the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial crisis, and following the 9/11 attacks, per YF
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@jmhorp Data centers would do very poorly in canals.
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@AndyWarrenStein @jmhorp Mostly because literally nobody has been able to show positive ROI on using AI yet
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@jmhorp I just don't understand how you can look at the last 4-5 years and still think AI is nothing, another NFTs. Good or bad, they're just going to keep on improving.
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@Lost_Signal @jmhorp That's more the Jones Act than the longshoremen (though the ILU doesn't help, obviously)
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@jmhorp we still use barges for cargo (would use a lot more if the dock worker unions didn't get in the way)?
I guess the argument is we will decide putting data-centers in the ocean or space is more cost effective than land would be the only anti-terrestrial DC argument?
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