Domer❤️‍🔥

If you're interested in betting on anything as a serious endeavor, a few recommended reads: -Thinking, Fast and Slow -Intelligent Investor Ch 8 -Fortune's Formula -Cracking the Code - bloomberg.com/news/features/… -Deep Value -Big Short/Moneyball -When Genius Failed -Superforecasting

@Maximilian_evm Also got it.

got it 🥰

@theyknewww @elonmusk It's called a joke

@Domahhhh @elonmusk Lol - weird flex - $5k is less than a penny to Musk.

Regarding the OpenAI case, the judge & jury never actually ruled on the merits of the case, just on a calendar technicality. There is no question to anyone following the case in detail that Altman & Brockman did in fact enrich themselves by stealing a charity. The only question is WHEN they did it! I will be filing an appeal with the Ninth Circuit, because creating a precedent to loot charities is incredibly destructive to charitable giving in America. OpenAI was founded to benefit all of humanity.

@Maximilian_evm @PolymarketTrade Where in Rome is that? I'm here now and will buy that in 5 seconds

Spotted in Roma

@Deebs_DeFi @FFVV1211 @CarOnPolymarket Are you daft or gullible? He's a horrible POS who knew he was lying.

@FFVV1211 @CarOnPolymarket Car is a good dude and i probably wouldnt have said anything if it was anyone other than him commenting

This is ridiculous but I have to say something There's a fake narrative that Bubblemaps shared a "Insiders list" on 60 minutes with known traders like Scottynooo included A narrative even @CarOnPolymarket (someone I respect) has said IT'S 100 % FALSE. That image you see in the bottom right is NOT an insiders list. Its just a list of all Polymarket accounts that bet Yes that the US would strike Iran by February 28th. That's it! It's a screen grab from a tool we used to start our investigation and look for connections. If you read our full report (linked below) you will know we did a lot more analysis and only found 9 accounts that are connected and suspects for insider trading. There is no list with known traders like 50 pence or Scottynooo included. Please if you know Car, I kindly ask you reach out and ask him to read the full report. A lot of people jumped to conclusions today Thanks

@ithinkthisisgod They've eliminated a lot of morally questionable geopolitics markets because of the CFTC (and bc we've had very negative things happen in these markets). Strike markets are likely gone for good. No point whining about it now. Markets were attempted, and the experiment failed.

Look, I'm blunt for better or worse, so pardon any rude directness: your statement is terrible and nonsensical. It also doesn't grapple with two key points, namely: (1) You allow for social media confirmations, but ignored them here. The person that I'm responding to spent considerable time cataloguing the confirmation. And (2) This was indeed a total ceasefire. It was all kinetic activity. And not bounded by geography. If "total ceasefire" has a definition, that's it. Your market is a Yes for these reasons. Finally, you fell hook, line, and sinker for a pathetic FUD argument that was attempted by No bag holders on Polymarket and roundly rejected -- that the Red Square announcement about drone strikes on a PARADE had any correlation with the ceasefire announcement. It didn't. It was about a parade. It is embarrassing to even mention it. One of the problems with prediction markets is that employees who create and adjudicate markets can't be experts on every single topic, and so things will fall through the cracks. Understandable, and can be forgiven. The issue is recognizing the limitations, and working through them. Here, you leaned into that ignorance, didn't try to become anything close to an expert, and proudly made an article out of it. So now your terrible decision that doesn't make any sense is catalogued forever.

We resolved as we did because of the reasons in the article linked below. While I understand the point you are making, we can't be resolving markers based on another prediction markets set of rules. The rules are the rules and as much as I love and respect Ari and want him to win, he should’ve read that before going in. Here’s a link to why we resolved it the way we did. Let me know what you think, the rules are very clear @Domahhhh but of course your input is highly appreciated! x.com/myriadmarkets/…

@mattkalish @muchomotion Was there some catalyzing event (other than the DK stock crashing) that is causing you to have a meltdown on Twitter?

@muchomotion Why play draftkings when u could click on Kalshi instead and PREDICT THE FUTURE against our market maker roster of Wall Street quant bankers and professional gamblers which is way better plus pay us deposit and platform fees plus also get no rewards Cause that’s the FUTURE

Smoking on Kalshi Tell ur wall street bankers to enjoy that money from me it’s the last dollar you will ever see from me. Really maximized my LTV goofys

@skepticalsports Sorry man, that sucks. Two most important repositories on the internet: Wikipedia and the Wayback Machine

God please let this be a temporary oversight or glitch of some sort. Virtually all of my public-facing writing was for FiveThirtyEight, including many of my absolute favorite passion projects (Lionel Messi is Impossible, The Sumo Matchup Centuries in the Making, Stephen Curry is the Revolution, Skeptical Football, just to name a few). And that’s just my stuff. So much amazing work from others as well. Hate on Nate’s election analysis if you must, but there was so much more to that platform.

@MartinShkreli So true, king. You should team up with Kalish. You two together would be unstoppable in creating the worst company to ever exist.

prediction markets are sportsbooks wrapped in law firms

@BigBuckHunterrr Yeah I think (almost) everyone agrees that things should be transparent and easier. It's a little much coming from a guy whose life's work is a predatory sportsbook. A bit like Voldemort weighing in that he has some issues with Quidditch fairness.

Shoot the messenger all you want, but this kind of thing bothers low information users.

@mattkalish @penguin_pmkt It is dumb, absolutely. Things should be transparent. But you have no ground to stand on with that vampiric logo attached to your name. I need to take a shower even just looking at it.

Respectfully you’re obv the goat at this trading stuff as a “top 0.1% trader” it’s enough of your identity that it’s all that’s on your profile. The other 99.9% of normal people gambling who just want fair odds and no headaches are like “yeah that’s dumb as fuck to show me 93-1 then book me at 38-1”.

draftkings cofounder discovers orderbook

@MonteCarloSpam @polyint Easy win tbh. But stressful. Figured I might've been missing something, but nope.

The clash of titans. Featuring @Domahhhh & @polyint

@JakeTheLarp @CarOnPolymarket Does his mom know that her son is a total dipshit whose internet service should be turned off?

*BREAKING: This is my 3rd documented case of @CarOnPolymarket attempting to scam this week. Car is actively attempting to pump and dump his shares. Car is Cancer to the site. We need to euthanize him.

@andrewcourt1 @MickBransfield Good shout...traveling that week, otherwise I would go to this.

If you’re interested in how trading and prediction markets work, go to this. Jeremy and I co-ran a trading desk at SIG for several years. He understands the microstructure and what these markets could become.

@EpsilonPM @CarOnPolymarket Really a straight up, legitimately bad person. Thought his racist meltdown against employees would be the end of the line for him, but he is still around like a stubborn weed. Blatantly uses his "influence" to swindle people.

Polymarket will remove the affiliate badge of slop posters, but while @CarOnPolymarket performs dozenth pump & dump, he is still affiliated with the platform. Here is him trying to get people to buy into a market that has already resolved, but due to a bug is still tradeable.

@CSP_Trading @MickBransfield Not to be too dramatic, but I'd rather kill myself than post a scammy comment like that. @aenews

A side effect of this ruling is that this election will now not be certified, so the Kalshi market resolves as no for all brackets. Lot of 'sharps' got screwed by that clause and have spent the last few weeks desperatly trying to get out of their positions

Anyone taking Robins' made-up nonsense seriously needs their head checked. He's like 0/20 so far on his assessment of prediction markets. And of course global prediction markets are here to stay; the idea is too good and it's too popular at this point. The question is whether and how they're regulated in the US. Unfortunately for the US outlook, Robins bought a DCM, and given his track record of idiocy, that might be a negative indicator for the future of sports on exchanges in the US.

Robins always saying the quiet part out loud, but yes, we've heard this song before and learned from DFS and poker that this ecosystem will not survive long term.

@spanky @bet_bash Can I participate by throwing tomatoes at the people on the stage or is that frowned upon?

We’ll be running a seminar at @bet_bash called The Ethics Of Touting. Anyone interested in participating?