dontry

1.7K posts

dontry

dontry

@dontry018

Katılım Ağustos 2016
387 Takip Edilen78 Takipçiler
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Arnaud Bertrand
Arnaud Bertrand@RnaudBertrand·
What China just did with the blocking statutes against U.S. extraterritorial sanctions sets quite a major precedent, probably the financial equivalent of what happened with rare earths last year (in the sense that this is China taking a major step to push back against a U.S. hostile measure as opposed to taking it on the chin). It's a little complex but, to start with, what many people ignore (and will probably be surprised by) is that - by and large - Chinese companies and financial institutions have largely complied with extraterritorial U.S. sanctions. Anecdotal story on this: I know for a fact, because I personally know the person, that a very famous guy (whose name I won't reveal but that everyone of you would know) sanctioned by the U.S. was in China recently and tried to exchange money at the counter of a random Chinese bank. Just simply exchange dollars for a Chinese yuan, in mainland China. And he was refused, because he is sanctioned by the U.S. - despite the fact that China as a country has absolutely no problem with the person. This goes to illustrate just how much goodwill China extended to the U.S. on this - a Chinese bank, in China, refusing to serve someone China has no problem with, just to comply with U.S. extraterritorial sanctions. It also goes to illustrate why this blocking order marks such a sharp departure. What triggered it is not new sanctions by the U.S. but recent efforts under the so-called "Operation Economic Fury" to dramatically ramp up enforcement of existing sanctions on Iran. The U.S. notably issued at the end of April alerts to financial institutions worldwide - including in China - on "the sanctions risks associated with independent 'teapot' oil refineries in China, primarily in Shandong Province, given their continued role in importing and refining Iranian crude oil" (home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…) Even more importantly, they also specifically went after Hengli Petrochemical Dalian (home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…), one of China's largest private refineries, with 400,000 barrels per day capacity and a parent company (the Hengli Group) that's a Fortune Global 500 company. In effect, what the U.S. extraterritorial sanctions mean is that Hengli - and all other Chinese 'teapot' oil refineries being targeted - is cut off from the dollar system, and any bank, insurer, or trading partner anywhere in the world - including in China - that deals with them risks being cut off too. Which is obviously a major hostile move by the U.S. against China (and, of course, Iran). Except that China, this time around, is not having it. Since 2021 they've had regulations ("Measures to prevent the improper extraterritorial application of foreign laws and measures", mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/zhzc/art/…) that gives the Chinese government power to formally prohibit compliance with foreign sanctions, and that, since this April (morganlewis.com/pubs/2026/04/c…) are also extraterritorial in nature. In effect what these regulations - and their April addendum - say is that if you comply with U.S. extraterritorial sanctions by cutting off a Chinese company, you are violating Chinese law. Any entity - Chinese or foreign - that refuses to deal with a sanctioned Chinese company because Washington told them to can be sued in Chinese courts, fined by MOFCOM, and since April, placed on a 'Malicious Entity List' with asset freezes and trade restrictions. In a nutshell on one side you have the U.S. saying "cut them off or we cut you off" and now China says "well, if you do cut us off we're going to be real nasty with you, in China and potentially beyond." These regulations were - until yesterday - purely theoretical: they've never actually been applied. But, yesterday, China's MOFCOM made it crystal clear this time is different: they used a statement with a triple negative, saying the U.S. sanctions "shall not be recognized, shall not be enforced, shall not be complied with" ("不得承认、不得执行、不得遵守", mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/art/…). In effect you now have companies that are in the middle of this - for instance financial institutions serving Hengli - caught in quite a bind: face U.S. or Chinese hostility. It's a no-win, they need to choose a camp on this. Concretely speaking, given that the overwhelming majority of companies affected are operating inside China, they'll obviously choose the China side. The real question therefore is: Is the U.S. ready to act on its threat and cut off Chinese banks or other institutions that keep servicing these refineries? Because that probably means sanctioning major Chinese financial institutions, which is a whole different level of escalation. The moment the U.S. designates a major Chinese bank for dealing with Hengli, this stops being about Iranian oil and becomes a direct financial confrontation between the two largest economies on earth, which is a much bigger deal with probable consequences for the entire global financial system. Or will the U.S. back off, meaning China would have effectively caught their bluff, showing that extraterritorial sanctions are a lot of bark but not a lot of bite? We'll know in the next couple of weeks I guess. One thing is sure though: whatever happens with these refineries, the broader damage is done. China used to extend remarkable goodwill on sanctions compliance - voluntarily cooperating with extraterritorial sanctions inside its own borders even though it had no legal obligation to respect them. That goodwill has been spent. And, from a U.S. standpoint, a China with less goodwill vis a vis U.S. financial hegemony is undoubtedly a far bigger issue than a few teapot refineries buying Iranian oil.
Drop Site@DropSiteNews

🇨🇳 China Invokes Blocking Statute for First Time China’s Ministry of Commerce has for the first time activated its 2021 Blocking Rules, ordering all Chinese firms and individuals not to comply with U.S. sanctions targeting five independent Chinese oil refineries accused of purchasing Iranian crude. Beijing called the U.S. measures, imposed under two executive orders, an “unjustified” and “improper” use of extraterritorial law. The move puts multinational companies operating in both markets in direct legal conflict: compliance with U.S. sanctions now risks violating Chinese law, and vice versa. Global banks and firms with dollar exposure face secondary sanctions risk if they continue dealing with the affected refineries. Analysts describe the order as a significant step toward competing legal frameworks for global trade, accelerating the path to potential economic “decoupling” between the two powers.

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dontry
dontry@dontry018·
I watched a video where an interviewer asked people to name three countries they see as superpowers. Most people mentioned the U.S. and China without hesitation, but struggled to identify a third It made me realize we may already be moving toward a G2-style global landscape.
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独孤野狼
独孤野狼@loon_fireman·
@Areskapitalon 时间肯定是站着大陆这一边。地理上搬不走,除非法理台独,否则就是政治空间的问题。大陆当下其实也不想接这个负资产。
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Aelia Capitolina
Aelia Capitolina@Areskapitalon·
武统从现实上讲就是不可能的,中国保留这个选项,其实是一个很尴尬却不得已的负资产。而在之前,很明显的现实是时间站在台湾独派一边,而不是中国一边。 但是,如果美国可以先下一个台阶保证维持现状,那么这个选项就变得毫无必要了。因为这会把计时器从台湾倒拨回中国一边。这在之前的美国政策体系下是不可想象的,但是在川普的世界观下,价值观是不可靠的,盟友是不可靠的。如果可以加速美国芯片产业减少对外依赖,他还真的有动机去这么做。 而之前美国没有下这个台阶的动力,伊朗战争造成的美国战略困境,可能是几十年来唯一的机会。
Nebulight~@Liulangfengyun

@Areskapitalon 台湾有海峡的天然屏障,武力进攻的难度极高。

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InfoGram
InfoGram@_InfoGram_·
This is ABSOLUTE CINEMA 🔥 🇺🇸Trump at 1:00 PM: "We are going to put sanctions on China for buying Iranian oil." 🇨🇳China at 1:10 PM: "Fućk off. We do not recognize US sanctions on Iranian oil purchases and will not comply with them. We have trade agreements with 🇮🇷 Iran and strictly warn Trump not to put your nose in our affairs."🔥 ABSOLUTE BELT TREATMENT 🔥
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The White House
The White House@WhiteHouse·
President Trump saying WINNING for 1 hour. 🔁 Can't stop, won't stop.
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dontry
dontry@dontry018·
@TheEthanDing Actually, china has its own GitHub which is called Gitee
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dontry
dontry@dontry018·
@mranti 确实是这样。一方面宣传AI多革命性,另一方面渲染AI一旦掌握在敌方手里对国家、社会安全的威胁。问题西方民主天然对政府的不信任,很难不质疑自己政府会用AI来对付自己。
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Michael Anti
Michael Anti@mranti·
“连线杂志:一个支持AI的暗池资金团体,得到一个由与Palantir和OpenAI高管有关联的强大超级政治行动委员会资助,已在秘密支付网红在TikTok和IG上推送支持AI、反中国的宣传”——问题是,支持AI、反中国的宣传很容易有点内在矛盾,不好做啊,你要不要画面上显示机器人、要不要AI普惠、要不要AI做视频?
Taylor Lorenz@TaylorLorenz

SCOOP: A pro-AI dark money group backed by a powerful super PAC funded by execs tied to Palantir and OpenAI, has been secretly paying influencers to push pro-AI, anti-China propaganda on TikTok and IG.

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molson 🧠⚙️
molson 🧠⚙️@Molson_Hart·
The only developed countries in the world that are not accepting significant numbers of Indian immigrants are China and North Korea.
molson 🧠⚙️ tweet media
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dontry
dontry@dontry018·
@war24182236 No wonder US produced so many zombies movies. They got first hand experience
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jj smith
jj smith@war24182236·
SAN FRANCISCO 7th & Market st
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dontry
dontry@dontry018·
@unusual_whales If I were Hegseth, I wouldn't flinch an inch. President Trump would pardon me anyway.
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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
Warren: Did you through your broker seek to invest in any defense-related funds right before Trump started the Iran war? Hegseth: I'll give it to you as a big fat negative Warren: Is your broker getting your personal sign off-- Hegseth: Bigger, fatter negative Warren: He's not getting your personal sign off before he makes investments?
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我是17君
我是17君@4FVsSM8diD5WgMJ·
@dontry018 @RJDAIGOGO 只有MAGA蠢逼不喜欢建制派,左派什么和普通右派什么时候不喜欢建制派了?
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RJ
RJ@RJDAIGOGO·
美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔在最后一次新闻发布会后,走出门去:感谢大家。下次不会再见到你们了。
RJ tweet media
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dontry
dontry@dontry018·
@4FVsSM8diD5WgMJ @RJDAIGOGO 但是现在美国民粹主义抬头,对现状不满、政治极化,左右两边都不喜欢建制派。要不然川普不会三次竞选、被选上两次、一次惜败。这不是偶然
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我是17君
我是17君@4FVsSM8diD5WgMJ·
@RJDAIGOGO 美国之所以是美国,就是建制派得底线坚持。 胡佛特朗普这种脑残终归是少数。
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dontry
dontry@dontry018·
@oragnes 以后会不会直接研发出通过电流刺激获得多巴胺快感,同时不具有成瘾性。
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陈太忠
陈太忠@xdhicloud·
@dotey 我直接看到“根因”两个字,直接感觉也是gpt 写的
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宝玉
宝玉@dotey·
OpenAI 发了一篇技术博客,认真调查了一个荒诞的问题:为什么他们的模型越来越爱说“哥布林”(goblin)和“小精灵”(gremlin)? 事情最早在去年 11 月 GPT-5.1 上线后被注意到。用户反馈模型说话太过自来熟,内部一查,发现包含“goblin”的对话比之前暴涨了 175%,“gremlin”涨了 52%。当时觉得比例还小,没太当回事。 几个月后 GPT-5.4 上线,哥布林彻底泛滥,用户和员工都受不了了。OpenAI 这才认真追查,最终锁定了罪魁祸首:ChatGPT 的性格定制功能。 ChatGPT 有八种可选性格,其中一种叫“Nerdy”(极客风)。训练这个性格时,奖励模型被设定为鼓励"俏皮、有趣的表达",结果无意中给了包含奇幻生物比喻的回复更高的分数。模型很快学会了一个捷径:提到哥布林就能拿高分。 问题在于,这个习惯没有老老实实待在极客性格里。数据显示,Nerdy 性格只占 ChatGPT 全部回复的 2.5%,却贡献了 66.7% 的“goblin”出现次数。从 GPT-5.2 到 GPT-5.4,Nerdy 性格下的哥布林出现率飙升了 3881%。更麻烦的是,即使在没有 Nerdy 性格提示词的对话中,哥布林也在同步增长。 OpenAI 给出的解释是一个经典的反馈循环:强化学习先在极客性格里奖励了这种表达,然后模型生成的带哥布林的回复被收录进了下一轮训练数据,模型因此更加习惯输出哥布林,如此循环放大。除了哥布林,浣熊、巨魔、食人魔、鸽子也都被查出是同一机制产生的“tic词”(语言习惯性抽搐)。 【注:tic 原本是医学术语,指不自主的重复动作或发声,OpenAI 在这里借用来形容模型养成的不受控语言习惯。】 修复方面,OpenAI 在今年 3 月下架了 Nerdy 性格,移除了相关奖励信号,并过滤了训练数据中的生物词。但 GPT-5.5 的训练在找到根因之前就已经开始,所以新模型依然带着哥布林习性出厂。目前的临时方案是在 Codex(OpenAI 的编程工具)里通过系统提示词压制。博客里甚至贴了一段命令行代码,教你怎么把哥布林抑制指令去掉,"让小精灵们自由奔跑"。 这篇博客表面上是讲一个好笑的 bug,底下其实揭示了一个 AI 训练的核心难题:你给模型的每一个微小的奖励信号,都可能在你不知道的地方被放大和泛化。一个只针对 2.5% 用户的性格训练,最终污染了整个模型的语言习惯。
宝玉 tweet media宝玉 tweet media宝玉 tweet media
OpenAI@OpenAI

We’re talking about Goblins. openai.com/index/where-th…

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dontry
dontry@dontry018·
@zuilizhishier 你怎么看不到硅谷最顶尖AI公司里里面很多都是华人工程师?
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番茄哈猫🍐
番茄哈猫🍐@zuilizhishier·
看来美国是真的堕落了… 美国之前培养的中国人:钱学森、杨振宁、李政道… 美国现在培养的中国人:asuka、BBOC、Iris、牢A…
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北美王路飞
北美王路飞@kingluffywang·
感觉这几家AI公司明显有成本压力了,一般都是放个好模型吸引大家买最贵的订阅,然后开始降智,挂羊头卖狗肉,一般用户可能看不出来,但是稍微复杂点的工作流,明显能感受到质量的下降,感觉用户的好日子快到头了,大家都要降本增效了。
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Mellivora capensis
Mellivora capensis@IonMing101·
@TJ_Research 我真的好討厭微軟的產品啊… 用的時候都想砸手機。 這公司要不是有老本。早該倒閉一萬次了
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dontry
dontry@dontry018·
@kik8964 @RJDAIGOGO 如果微软看好openai就不会放弃独家模型使用权。它肯定知道这样下去openai只会入不敷出风险无法控制
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Ik K
Ik K@kik8964·
@RJDAIGOGO codex产生的token开销让我非常看好OpenAI未来的营收和利润
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RJ
RJ@RJDAIGOGO·
据华尔街日报报道,OpenAI近期未能实现其自身设定的新用户获取和销售目标,引发内部担忧,公司可能难以支撑其在人工智能基础设施上的巨额支出。 该报援引知情人士消息称,在竞争对手Anthropic在编程和企业市场取得进展后,OpenAI未能实现其内部设定的ChatGPT在2025年年底达到每周10亿活跃用户的目标。公司至今尚未宣布这一里程碑,令部分投资者感到不安。 另据熟悉相关数据的人士称,公司在订阅用户流失率方面也面临困难。首席财务官Sarah Friar在与其他公司高层的交流中表示担忧,如果OpenAI无法足够快速地提升销售,可能无法负担其未来的算力需求。 近几个月来,Friar还对OpenAI在今年年底前上市的计划表达了保留意见。她向高管和董事会强调,OpenAI需要改进内部控制,并警告称公司尚未准备好满足上市公司所需的严格信息披露标准。
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向阳乔木
向阳乔木@vista8·
受传统教育影响,个人不信算命。 但身边不少朋友对这方面有专研,听过好多离奇的故事。 三年前在飞书工作时认识一个朋友叫西元Levy。 他做了个App叫 @FateTell,他和他的团队是真信,而且据说算的相当好。 试完有点震惊,交互设计和品味太赞了!!! 哪怕不信算命,我都推荐你下载体验下,你一定会回来的。 App Store搜fatetell下载就行,我用美区账号,不知道其他区有没有。 他送了我几个年费会员兑换码,需要的留言,先到先得。
向阳乔木 tweet media向阳乔木 tweet media向阳乔木 tweet media向阳乔木 tweet media
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CyberCat
CyberCat@CyberCatX·
这次回国蛮多混的不错的朋友/长辈都告诉我,留学生的身份逐渐已经成了很大一部分人回国就业的劣势,说普遍觉得国外呆久了回来都吃不了苦。还上来就问work life balance,说我们哪有work life balance啊,7-24小时待命是常态🤔
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