@feynzz I have been surprised that they haven’t bought back any during this current weakness. Hoping they announce a large purchase soon!
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dothedillegence
321 posts
dothedillegence
@dothedilegence
Yup, that’s about it.
Florida, USA Katılım Nisan 2016
242 Takip Edilen89 Takipçiler
#AVAP has one plane leased to Etihad, that's their total direct exposure to the Middle East and I consider the default risk on that airline to be 0 (state backed, Arabs won't ever let it go bust).
No direct risk on any of the other planes/airlines. Some European/Asian airlines will actually be net beneficiaries and take more market share from the Middle Eastern giants (Emirates/Etihad/Qatar).
ATR - the current oil price would do more to increase demand for regional fuel-efficient planes and I see no issues in the demand for these planes. Supply would still be an issue (maybe bigger) as supply chains get affected, would only increase secondary market prices.
£300m bonds are deferred till 2031. In hindsight what great timing to do it last year.
Overall, great opportunity for management to mop up more shares which I am sure they will and I think they are acting very strategically to mop them up lower (why not) as there would be many panic sellers in the current market.
I talk my own book. DYOR.
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@puppyeh1 @AndrewRangeley Will there be a podcast about AVAP? I thought I read that you were going to do a postmortem on it, was looking forward to it!
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In case anyone missed it...20min digestible discussion w/ @AndrewRangeley on the case for change at $HUM.AX Humm Group Limited...
please continue to vote for change 🙏🙏 reach out if any issues voting or questions!
youtube.com/watch?app=desk…
YouTube
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@feynzz @AVATION_PLC I continue to like what Jeff is doing. Looking at the share price I must be the only one that does!!!
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#AVAP Ok so it was a cashless exercise in full satisfaction of the 2m outstanding warrants therefore the number of shares issued were lower than 2m (i.e. 843k) and the employees are holding on to their shares. Good outcome and well done @AVATION_PLC
Affan@feynzz
#AVAP Slightly confused by the RNS, 842k warrants exercised in satisfaction of all outstanding 2022 warrants, but there were 2m warrants due from 2022? What happened to the rest? Importantly, none sold and Jeff's holding now 20.34% of the company.
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@dantelriv I’m not sure if this is good or bad. Why do you think they are so far above market rates??
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$WED.V $WEDXF
MYGA annuity rates Ceres vs Athene.
Ceres annuities now available in 46 states.
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@ChrisDeMuthJr Are you saying that the assets they are selling are worth $8 a share or that you value the whole company at $8?
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The sales of all Amplify assets in both East Texas and the Mid-Continent will be announced in October. It is worth ~$300 million or a bit under $8 per $AMPY share.
- shorturl.at/CkHir
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Wow, an office REIT with a 4.4 WALT and 5.4m square feet of space is being taken out at a 10 cap? That's...interesting
David Auerbach ⭕️@DailyREITBeat
🏢💼 City Office REIT $CIO to Be Acquired in $1.1B Take-Private Deal 💰📉 Big news from the office #REIT world as City Office REIT has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by MCME Carell Holdings in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $1.1 billion. 🔑 Key Highlights from the Deal: 💵 $7.00 per share cash consideration for common stockholders — 🟩 26% premium to the last closing price — 📊 39% premium to the 90-day VWAP 🏦 Preferred shareholders to receive $25.00 per share + accrued dividends 🏙️ Transaction includes sale of CIO’s Phoenix portfolio as a condition 📅 Expected to close in Q4 2025 🧠 Strategic Rationale: * “In light of a challenging environment for the office sector, this Transaction delivers immediate and significant value to our shareholders.” — Jamie Farrar, CEO, City Office REIT * “This opportunity underscores our belief in the recovery of the office sector.” — Mukang Cho, CEO, Morning Calm Management 📌 What’s Next: ✅ Approved unanimously by City Office’s Board 🛑 No financing condition for closing 🚫 Future common stock dividends suspended (Q2 dividend will still be paid) 📉 City Office will be taken private; shares to be delisted from NYSE 🏙️ About City Office REIT: 5.4M square feet of office assets in high-growth Sun Belt markets. 📊 About MCME Carell: * Affiliate of Elliott Investment Management and Morning Calm, with over * $72.7B in AUM and 10M+ square feet in real estate holdings. 📣 This deal highlights the ongoing shifts in the office sector, with value being unlocked through strategic exits and consolidation by well-capitalized players. investors.cioreit.com/news-events/pr…
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@puppyeh1 And now you have $avap selling a plane for a nice gain. Life is good in Jeremy land!
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Not a bad email to wake up to...Ripple Labs buying back 3-5% of the co at $175/share...last traded prices on Hyve were $74-75, so a nice little 135% premium...
More thoughts to follow. I own Ripple (the co, not $XRP) outright, as well as derivative plays on Ripple...
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Eight years ago today, we founded Pier. Thank you to everyone on our team for getting us this far.
And, thank you to @JillianMurrish for being a great business partner. Here’s to another 8!
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@investingcre Congrats on the new phase of life!!! It’s scary but so worth it, you got this!!
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Hi All,
After more than a year here, it’s time to stop being semi-anon. I’ve already met quite a few of you anyway. My name is Edward Bond. I go by Ed or Eddie. I’m originally from NJ. I currently live in South Florida with my wife and two young kids.
After spending the first ~15 years of my career working for others (distressed credit fund, MF investor/operator, and family office), I decided it was time to do my own thing. I recently launched LRL Financial, which focuses on originating commercial bridge loans, acquiring NPLs, and distressed CRE. For those curious, LRL is the initials of my kids and dog (who unfortunately passed away a few months ago). Very creative, I know.
I will remain active here as it’s my preferred social platform. However, I am joining some others as well. Check out my profile page for the link to my Linktree. I joined Linked today and have zero connections – help a guy out.
Look forward to discussing deals and meeting more people!
EB
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@kingdomcapadv $NLOP because no one thinks it can lose money… (shot fired Kingdom) 😉
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What's a well-understood event driven situation right now that's going to end badly?
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@puppyeh1 There is career risk for any pm that doesn’t tender if the shares drop after the tender date. I’d wager every institutional investor tenders at least 50% to not look bad in front oh their boss.
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What do we all think the tender acceptance ratio will be for the $PAC.AX buyback?
Co is attempting to buyback 48% of shares out at $12, NAV today (pre buyback) is prob $14.50, and PF for bb residual shares will carry a NAV closer to $17.
Jeremy Raper@puppyeh1
Maybe worth unpacking $PAC.AX Pacific Current a bit more now that buyback is set. announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2024121… PAC is basically a semi-wind down of a bunch of cash and various stakes in boutique asset managers. It is my contention that at current lvls its still a v advantagedbet. 👇👇
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@CaseyMericle What is your favorite way to “be in control” without being on the title?
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@dothedilegence Unless you’re doing a exchange you don’t need to be on title anyway to be in control
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Changing the insurance or the name on title is what’ll getcha subject-to loan called
If ya’lled just not mess with those 2 things they’ll never know
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@Wexboy_Value Any chance you can share the link to the interview? I looked and didn’t see anything.
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I listened to an early-Oct interview with the #AVAP Chairman last night & on second thoughts it sounded far more interesting to me…
…so that’s prob why! 😆
WheelieDealer@wheeliedealer
#AVAP gone nuts up 13%; well happy to see that but no obvious explanation. Presumably chance of lower interest rates ahead is being appreciated (helps discount value on planes and helps debt).
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@BalsamSteven @InvestSpecial What makes you think that they aren’t running this for the long term? They haven’t returned much to shareholders, I can’t imagine that they would sit on this cash unless they are looking for a new company to deploy it in.
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@InvestSpecial $WED.V /3 Note also that major aspect of G&A over the past 3 quarters is the 10% bonus on net gain on SKWD. Rather than capitalizing this, I simply deduct it from NAV. This is already a liability for all but today's sale. I estimate tax at $4M and bonus at $5.2M.
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Holdco discount unlock play over at $WED.V.
The Holdco has just three assets:
- Remaining stake in a publicly traded $SKWD
- A 51% stake in Arena, a privately held asset management firm
- Arena FINCOs, which is WED’s capital held in Arena strategies
Currently, the company's stake in SKWD plus net cash is worth almost the entire market cap, effectively leaving the Arena FINCOs and the Arena stake itself for FREE. Most importantly, management has mentioned capital returns and expressed its intention to monetize Arena FINCO assets, which are carried at $153m on the books.
The 51% stake in Arena is likely worth multiples of its book value. I conservatively estimate it to be around $90m. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts if you arrive at a higher valuation.
Overall, the discount to a conservatively estimated SOTP is about 20%, once you account for liabilities and overhead costs, as the company is not fully liquidating. The company plans to continue reinvesting to scale the Arena business.
In the meantime, the company is executing buybacks and has recently accelerated the pace. More news on increased buyback activity, along with a larger capital return, could quickly close the gap here.
Key concerns on my side:
- Upside on conservative estimates seems somewhat limited
- Management does not plan to return the entire net cash and was vague about the timing of the return.
- Management owns 10.5% but has not bought any shares in recent years.
- Arena FINCOs' visibility is low. There are no details on non-performing loans, etc. An analyst pressed management on this during the call, but they avoided the question. The loans seem quite risky, with many having high LTVs and very high coupons.
Curious to hear your thoughts. The setup is indeed interesting, but margin of safety seems to be limited here.
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@dantelriv Now if they would only return some of it to their shareholders!! Huge bonuses to executives without showing their shareholders some love is such a bad look!!!
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$WED.V $WEDXF
Another 79M $ to add to the existent cash position.
westaim.com/wp-content/upl…
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@AndrewRangeley I would love an update on the French CCIs he pitched a while ago!
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Excited to have my friend Ross Levin back on the podcast tomorrow. We'll be talking about everyone's favorite insanely complicated french holdco, $BOL / $ODET
Any questions for Ross?
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@Mr_Neutral_Man Even with $CLPR returns? I am assuming you hold it in your value portfolio but I guess I could be wrong.
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Another day, another 350bps delta in performance between the REIT portfolio and the value portfolio
Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs”@Mr_Neutral_Man
REIT portfolio up 2.1% today due to 2/3 of it in large cap MF REITs Value portfolio (hybrid REITs and OpCos) down 0.5% Small Cap Value once again underwhelms
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