Steven Balsam

@Lynnrx52 @JamesLaverty45 nbcnews.com/politics/donal…

@BalsamSteven @JamesLaverty45 Where is the article? Thanks

They bury the Dad’s full quote at the end of the article. And they REALLY buried the lede. “Simmons recalled something his son had told him before volunteering for the mission that ended his life. “He said, ‘Dad, I can’t give you any details, but if civilians knew what we knew, a lot of the criticism [of the war] would cease,” he said. Simmons came away from Dover with a better impression of the war’s architects than he had when he arrived. Trump teared up and hugged him, evincing warmth and compassion at odds with the president’s public persona, Simmons said. He also credited Trump for looking him “straight in the eye.” “He extended his condolences father to father and conveyed how difficult it is to make decisions to put the children of other parents in peril,” Simmons said. As for Hegseth, “When I talked to him, I got the impression that he was torn because he seemed to be a very compassionate man, faced with difficult decisions as it pertains to war,” Simmons said. “I also let him know that Tyler was my only son. And you could see the emotion on his face. And I think those kinds of things you can’t fake,” he continued. “I was pleasantly surprised because the perception is they [Trump and Hegseth] don’t care, they’re going to do what they want to do,” he said. “I got to see a different side of them up close and personal.”

@Catahoula_Value Thanks Catahoula. Steve

@BalsamSteven Est. Mid‑sized Fannie Mae multifamily unit brings in mid‑teens to low‑30s in annual revenue from servicing, originations, and risk‑share. Staffing / compliance est. $8–18M. Net profit $5-12M. Mechanics’ ~$1.8B DUS servicing book, escrows, and team going to 5th 3rd for $130M.

Mechanics Bank $MCHB is selling its Fannie Mae DUS platform for $130M in 1q26 (still to be completed?) and plans to hand back almost all the excess capital in 2q26. Quick math: ~$80M distributable, roughly a $0.35/sh special. A sleepy bank tossing off cash like it’s wide awake.

@moetkacik @JamieMetzl Thank God for that! But not for a lack of trying. And the mass-murder they have achieved is bad enough for me. Perhaps you are looking for sterner stuff?

@JamieMetzl Have you ever considered that hamas, hezbollah and the Iranian regime not only consist of human beings but that those human beings have not perpetrated ANY recent genocides?

I am a Democrat. I served in the Clinton administration. I did not vote for Donald Trump and am highly unlikely to support him or his acolytes in the future. I also have serious disagreements with many of the Trump administration’s domestic and foreign policies. But it is profoundly disturbing that a growing segment of the far left appears to be almost rooting for Hamas, Hezbollah, the Iranian regime, and other forces fundamentally opposed to the United States and our allies. This seems to reflects a corrosive strain of anti-Americanism, dressed up in postcolonial theory, that risks blinding us to the moral realities of our world and the nature of our adversaries.

@kingdomcapadv @friedoystercult Are you comfortable with the sale price received for the drilling rig unit?

@friedoystercult What have they done that was untrustworthy?

Did a conservative model for $untc in 2026 and it looks cheap. Then I added interest income and it looked even cheaper. Then I said No what if we back out some of the insane cash pile? Guess what? Really cheap. But can you trust mgmt? TBD

@TomLoughrey_LFE @duedillengence Actually, pretty crazy - it's like the same chart.

@TomLoughrey_LFE @duedillengence $CNQ

Someone knew something before the rest of us!

Israel is a free country with media (including English language) that ranges across the spectrum in terms of political leanings. Just read them. Also, there are tons of English-speakers there. Do some work and reach out. There is no black-out, just speak to them. If you want, you can also sign up for missile alerts and you can see exactly what Israelis in different parts of the country are dealing with. (Lots of alerts; thank God, not many missiles/drones that get through.)

Not trolling Translating from "The Israelis tell us" that "strikes are diminishing" while there's been an obvious blackout on videos etc from the region to Therefore, it's obv Irans ability to launch has been trashed, is guessing. I don't know, and you don't know. If you look at the US war with Russia, they regularly are taking breaks between just beating the crap outta western Ukraine.

I think at this point two things can be true at once, and likely are. 1. The U.S. and Israeli counter-TEL campaign has proven enormously successful, and Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles and increasingly long-range drones is heavily degraded to the point that it can now conduct only small-scale and uncoordinated attacks. 2. It remains unclear how the United States and Israel will translate their operational success into a desirable and sustainable political outcome. The difficulty of achieving strategic victory does in now way diminish the considerable operational success the United States and Israel have achieved so far.

@MelissaLantsman Like a bad joke. Of course, we would all like people to talk it out instead of shooting missiles.

The least consequential Foreign Minister in Canadian history. 👇Name another, you can’t. No policy. No legacy. No consistency. It’s a different message at different times to different audiences. One might think it’s purposeful but today I’m not sure it’s even that.

@nntaleb @GiotaPim Very sophisticated comeback - you really showed her!

@GiotaPim Retard...

I wonder if the founding fathers conceived of the possibility that the U.S. government could be controlled by a recently established small Polish-Ukrainian colony in the Near East.

Couldn't they still allow their own ships to go through while closing traffic (by for example threatening strikes on transiting ships) to others? That would raise the price of oil potentially increasing their own income while putting pressure on the U.S. and others. BTW, I'm honestly just asking - I have no expertise here.

@sentdefender yea, this makes no sense. Why would they close the SOH? It is the lifeline for income. More than likely, one of the 3-letters is doing it posing as IRGC.

Audio has been posted of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy making announcements on marine VHF channel 16 closing the Strait of Hormuz. As of this post, most traffic in the area looks to be proceeding as normal.

@NuggetCapital I think that is likely... But, as a corollary, I will point out that would likely coincide with a much safer world. Might hurt my investments short-term but would be bullish for the world.

I think oil will finish red next week. Khamenei's death is bearish. Shia Khoeminism is no more. No more Shia insurgency. They eliminated geopol risk in Mideast.

@mariusO_O Great call!!

$FEC $GPRK $PXT.TO Parex is going to bid more for the Frontera E&P assets, just makes sense. Slight to Geopark, too.

@rupasubramanya @SStapczynski That wouldn't make sense geographically. They would have passed right by the U.S. If it really isn't going to Canada (and I don't know that), it would make more sense that it is going to Europe which is a major buyer of LNG and has pretty low inventories.

@SStapczynski Interesting analysis. By pit stop you mean it's going to the U.S and Canada didn't actually buy this LNG?

Why did Canada import its first LNG shipment from Australia? 🇨🇦 Well, it’s not up to Canada. The supplier (Shell) brought the cargo to optimise its shipping portfolio Asian demand is weak, so ships are moving to the Atlantic The LNG was delivered to Canada as a pit stop

@curiousxenough That makes good sense to me. The company will sure look pretty good soon with no debt, net cash and all that free cash flow. What a change after all those years of debt-paydown.

@BalsamSteven Good write up. The sisecam loan contribution is rational, nothing much has changed. You are getting a 2.43% yield whilst waiting for a SP re-rate to $150-ish 2026.

$NRP Despite the share price decline, NRP posted another strong quarter. Without any benefit from Soda Ash, they still brought in $45M of FCF for the quarter and $168M for the year. I think there was an expectation that NRP would go into full capital return mode as early as the end of Q1 (versus management's projection of August). That isn't going to happen because NRP is making a $39M contribution relating to its 49% ownership in Sisecam Wyoming this quarter.

@asidesilva The problem is you have to focus on this year's numbers as production is forecast to be materially lower.

@asidesilva I don't have the FS here in front of me but that must be the distribution from Prime Oil and Gas from when they only owned 50%. Their share of cash wasn't recorded on their own FS and they used to receive dividends from Prime.

#Meren's FY26 guidance soft vs. FY25. Prod⬇️not unexpected. Longer-term growth via infill drilling & brownfield growth in Nigeria Namibia beyond 2030 10% fwd div yield & ~20% FCF yield cushions patient capital to enjoy growth pipeline. Margin of safety! $MER.TO $MRNFF

$NRP /2 I still estimate that they will meet their target for full capital returns by June 30 (end of Q2). Here's my math. NRP's target is pay off all debt and have $30M of cash. At run rate $45M FCF per quarter minus $10M quarterly distributions for net $35M, you get $70M in cash minus $39M investment into Sisecam = $30M to pay off remaining debt, leaving $30M cash.