Dov H. Levin

Interested in election interference? Wondering why it happens & if it affects election results? Want an in-depth view of such past meddling & of 2016? If you answered yes then my new book "Meddling in the Ballot Box", now finally out, is the book for you! amazon.com/Meddling-Ballo…

Dumb excuse by JD Vance. As my research on foreign election interference (like book meddling in the ballot box) finds, countries don't intervene for candidates that they think are "lost causes". Vance wouldn't have anyway agreed to do this himself if he thought so.

This case for example from a VP openly intervening in a Lebanese in 2009 /2 nytimes.com/2009/05/23/wor…

An annoying thing in 1 of my research topics (foreign election int./partisan electoral int.) is that no one remembers past & how it is quite precedented. The US frequently overtly intervened in this blatant manner in elections including a case with a VP in Axelrod's WH era /1

@policytensor @baoshaoshan @admcollingwood Implausible IMO- sound like classic US hawks "leaks" rather then something true.

✅ I told you we had a deal. Iran could not have been assured without it. @dov_levin @baoshaoshan @admcollingwood “U.S. intelligence indicates China is  preparing to deliver ​new air defense systems to ​Iran  within the next few weeks, CNN ⁠reported late on Friday.”

@policytensor @BjoernGehrmann Both affirmative IMO

@dov_levin @BjoernGehrmann Do you agree with the chain of trust? Iran-China-Pakistan-US-Israel? Even if the two sides trust Pakistan and the quartet, we still need ask: — Can China reassure Iran? — Can US discipline Israel?

Thank you, @BjoernGehrmann! Look at the abstract. The result requires trust between both sides and the mediator. Can Pakistan pull this off? Do you think they have enough trust with the Chinese and the Americans, @dov_levin?

@policytensor Also Iran wouldn't have sent much of senior leadership if saw this as empty negotiations & Vance wouldn't risk going if feared that.

@policytensor I think deal quite probable as well- Trump wants this to be over ASAP & Iran got minimum needed for deterrence & will get some immediate relief of some kind to enable reopening of Hormuz.

Am I really in a minority of one again? Anyone comfortable saying that a deal is probable?

@cszabla You are joking- that will be exactly the explanation for the CIA intel failure that will lead to the US invasion of Indonesia in 2049😅😅

tired: fake human ginned up reports of WMDs wired: AI hallucinated reports of WMDs. “you’re absolutely right; you should invade!”

A select key segment of the op-ed, and a discussion of an additional (spurious) argument the hawks make in this regard can be seen in my new substack post /4 dovhlevin.substack.com/p/me-in-south-…

overall beneficial products. The existence of another major scientific power with very different preferences, such as China, can eventually help Americans to avoid losing out on useful products unfavored by the whims of the U.S. political system (RFK Jr. as HHS secretary etc.)/3

My new op-ed in South China Morning Post (link in next post) discusses how the rise of China’s science & tech benefits the U.S. as well in counter to the hawks claims American post-WW2 dominance of science comes with a big downside (also) to Americans- namely /1

@josephgfrancis_ @policytensor @tejparikh90 Yup- in January they saw a decline in sales due to the withdrawal of some Chinese government subsidies (reduction of their trade in program)- that decline now vanished.

@policytensor @tejparikh90 @dov_levin BYD is loving this

Iran war will cement China’s superpower status, @tejparikh90 right on the money. ht @dov_levin, who saw it coming on day 1. ft.com/content/47edd1…

@TheStalwart You should look at my recent piece on why the Liberal Rule based order failed in E-International Relations e-ir.info/2026/03/07/opi…

Anyone seen any good Substacks about the decline of American hegemony and the end of the neoliberal world order?

@stevehou That's one of the predictions I made a few days ago in my substack post- I see I am not alone in this regard. dovhlevin.substack.com/p/the-bystande…

From everything I’ve gathered so far, things I’ve read and podcasts I’ve listened to on the topic, it seems to me that to the extent that this Iranian operation was supposed to hurt China by taking out a Chinese geopolitical outpost and source of oil, China is in fact largely unaffected. Sure, if the US is successful, China may lose some discounted oil that’s like 12% of their total crude imports, and some low margin “teapot refiners” may even go out of business. But, overall China has alternative sources of energy and a large stockpile of SPR over 120 days apparently. Meanwhile, Chinese economic competitors like Japan, Korea, and India are all suffering from higher energy costs. Beyond the immediate short run, China likely stands to benefit from its supply of cheap green energy technology from solar, wind, to batteries and nuclear. Many countries, incl traditional US allies, may seek non-fossil sovereign energy sources esp if the US really comes to dominate global oil supply just so they are totally subject to the US’s dictation in the event the current brand of US politics isn’t an aberration. Major countries and economic blocs like India and Europe may maintain close economic relationship with China even just as a hedge and credible alternative to the US in case the US decides to bully them again. It’s better to have two roughly equal sized bullies that don’t get along than just the one. Maybe?

@policytensor @grok Link here edition.cnn.com/world/live-new…

@policytensor @grok Yes read it in CNN- reliable claim. Someone in Iran clear believes that (weak) theory that dollar hegemony is all because of the petrodollars...

@grok is this fake? Find me the CNN report. I do not believe it.

@TheStalwart That's one of the predictions I made a few days ago in my substack post- I see I am not alone in this regard. substack.com/home/post/p-19…

One of Erica's main conclusions: In the short term, the war will increase pain on China's economy. In the medium term, the war will likely accelerate global demand for Chinese batteries, solar panels and more.