@lrozen And they will rise along with inflation as long as this nightmare continues.
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Dr. Paul J. Sullivan
77.4K posts
Dr. Paul J. Sullivan
@DrPJSullivan
Advisor to leaders in industry and government, JHU, YACOL, WEG (UK), VUCA, AI, Economic +Energy (Geopol) Security Strategies/NDU Professor RET / personal
Katılım Haziran 2017
5.2K Takip Edilen7.8K Takipçiler
Trump is not going to like a rise in interest rates
Laura Rozen@lrozen
FT: “Investors are now betting that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will both lift rates this year—a dramatic shift from prewar expectations of reductions of borrowing costs. Traders in the futures market put the odds of a Fed rate rise by October at above 50%.”
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@gbrew24 Arguments by historical analogies that are not even near what is going on.
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I don't understand this strategy.
If Iran is collapsing, why continue the war? If Iran has been decimated, why is Hormuz still closed? If they have no ability to coordinate, how were they able to launch an immediate retaliation following the South Pars and Natanz attacks?
Aaron Rupar@atrupar
Bessent: "This is Hitler's bunker. Hitler is dead, Himmler is dead, Göring is dead. Most of what you're seeing are lone wolf activities. The midrange ICBM that was shot off, these two missiles yesterday, that's out of desperation"
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@Amena__Bakr As much as many want revenge on Iran, revenge should be served cold and strategically.
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Not too sure about this. And is just a threat or work the really follow through with it? #OOTT
Aaron Rupar@atrupar
Bessent on Trump's threat to commit war crimes by blowing up Iran's power plans: "This is the only language the Iranians understand"
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@baldersdale If this keeps up fuel rationing could be pretty much world wide.
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@Rory_Johnston Bessent is making it up along the way.
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Worth noting that the 140 million barrel figure is also bunk.
It's bunk all the way down.
x.com/Rory_Johnston/…
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston
So many problems with Bessent's Iranian oil on water claim here. But a big one is on the 140 million barrel figures he claims, which misunderstands how oil on water (OOW) actually works. If Iran is exporting oil, as it continues to do, it'll always have oil on water—as long as those tankers are on water they're in that volume. 2025 buildup was *excess* OOW, of which Iran's is nearer 60 million than 140 million barrels. To draw down *all* of Iran's OOW, you'd need to stop their exports (e.g., take out Kharg Island), which thus far Trump has been unwilling to do. Bad numbers misleading oil market situation leading to bad wartime policy.
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Even if this were true (which, naw), the 140 million barrels of Iranian oil on water Bessent cites here would offset roughly one week of Hormuz stoppage.
We’re now in week 4.
Annmarie Hordern@annmarie
Bessent to @kwelkernbc: “In essence, we are jujitsuing the Iranians. We are using their own oil against them.”
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@Peter__Wood @Big_Orrin That set of ideas will be quickly meaningless if there is a tit for tat on electricity systems as both sides are threatening. Without electricity there are no oil or gas systems that work.
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@Big_Orrin A lot of that 8-9bln bbl is working inventory. If we really drop 1b bbl’s in three months by the end of that period demand will have moved much closer to supply by whatever means necessary.
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We are jujitsuing them by allowing them to sell oil at full price instead of hawking it at a discount to China
Annmarie Hordern@annmarie
Bessent to @kwelkernbc: “In essence, we are jujitsuing the Iranians. We are using their own oil against them.”
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Dr. Paul J. Sullivan retweetledi
According @LibyaAlAhrarAR: El Feel oil field (90K bpd) has been shut for 4 days following the Sharara incident. Sharara crude is now being rerouted via El Feel & Hamada pipelines during maintenance. NOC prioritized Sharara flows due to its larger production share in #Libya.
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Dr. Paul J. Sullivan retweetledi
50% of our oil supply passes through Hormuz strait, says PM freemalaysiatoday.com/category/natio…
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@JoshYoung @ThematicMarkets Not any time soon with the damages in the ME.
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Oil will plunge to $25!
This week, @MJ_Farrington and I were joined by Doomberg, the pseudonymous energy and finance analyst team, best known for its distinctive green chicken icon and for its energy focused analysis of global markets.
In this wide ranging discussion, we examine why markets have remained surprisingly calm despite escalating violence in the Middle East, what may come next, and the longer term strategic consequences of the conflict. The conversation moves beyond short term price action to explore the deeper structure of the global energy system.
Watch the full episode here: thematicmarkets.com/podcast/themat…
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“Trump, caught unprepared by escalation, made a series of contradictory statements, and struggles to justify the joint US-Israeli intervention, especially as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on energy sites in the Gulf have fueled inflation” lemonde.fr/en/internation…
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Dr. Paul J. Sullivan retweetledi
UAE jumping in to secure
Hormuz Strait ready to ensure
safe ship transit. Big power play!
Go get ’em, lads 🇦🇪
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Dr. Paul J. Sullivan retweetledi
Sorry, but that's a very empty NAVARZ (9079078), belonging to the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC); and not in the Strait of Hormuz, but south of Hormuz Island in the Hormuzgan Province of Iran. She's been in that very spot since 2025-03-13. Congrats.
IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting)@iribnews_irib
Two Iranian journalists have gone to the middle of the Strait of Hormuz and show that the ships have turned off their engines and are waiting for permission to pass.
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@JavierBlas Let me translate
We will level Ras Laffan & the upstream platforms that feed it.
Qataris are facing stark reality that buying protection goes only so far. They are facing a future where their only source of income from LNG production sits in Sabine Pass, TX. @ColumbiaUEnergy
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Iran responds to Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum:
“… the critical infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and oil facilities throughout the region will be considered legitimate targets and will be destroyed…”
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibaf
بلافاصله پس از هدف قرار گرفتن نیروگاههای برق و زیرساخت در کشورمان، زیرساختهای حیاتی و زیرساختهای انرژی و نفت در سراسر منطقه اهداف مشروع تلقی شده و به نحو بازگشتناپذیر منهدم خواهند شد و قیمت نفت برای مدتها بالاتر خواهد رفت. وألقِ ما في يمينك تَلْقَفْ ما صَنَعوا.
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BREAKING: The British government just refused to rule out PETROL RATIONING as the Middle East war escalates. The minister literally said "there is no possibility as things stand" but admitted he doesn't know what will happen tomorrow. Total economic disaster looming.
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Iranian state TV brag-reports from the Strait of Hormuz.
IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting)@iribnews_irib
Two Iranian journalists have gone to the middle of the Strait of Hormuz and show that the ships have turned off their engines and are waiting for permission to pass.
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Dr. Paul J. Sullivan retweetledi
Five more Qatar Airways aircraft are heading into storage in Teruel, Spain.
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The Pirates of Persia 🏴☠️⚓️
Fazel Hawramy@FazelHawramy
Tehran has forced ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz to pay a $2 million fee says Boroujerdi of parliament’s national security committee “We have established a new regime governing the Strait after 47 years,” he said smirking. “We have to fund the war” The presenter smirks
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