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@bubblementality @orrdavid Secondary effects from weaker trade partners and stronger US-Dollar.

@orrdavid And you aren't good at maths

The Hormuz blockade strategy is from 40 years ago. It only made sense back when it actually hurt the USA. Now that we have cheap shale oil, the strategy is obsolete because Iran blockading the rest of the world's oil doesn't actually hurt the USA.

@Citrini7 @BussinBiotech Well, you put the entire chain on layer 1 German small caps. But it is, what it is. 🤷 🙈

@BussinBiotech One of the unfortunate consequences of gaining a following has been that we cannot opine as freely on names like this (with a sub-300M market cap).

The Photonics Supply Chain (from our latest piece "Let There Be Light")

Do large sale AI data centers dynamically adjust model compute given power prices? Or does Open AI and Co. have to burn way more money, when power prices spike (sold fix, dynamic costs?)

@Morpheus_Dr3ams @marginsmall Python, using Streamlit

@marginsmall for these type of coding what is your base language ? Python ?

vibe coding test

Of course when it's Macron, everybody goes "why would the Germans pay for the French who retire at 62" etc. But now Nagel says the same because the world has changed. Do this, a "big bang" on regulation, a 28th regime and the capital market union, and Europe stands a chance.

Now what about this ⁦@_FriedrichMerz⁩? Bundesbank President calls for more EU joint debt to create « a more liquid market for safe European assets » because we are facing « a different reality ». politico.eu/article/bundes…

@sirdavidjcooper @ZFXtrading "Tokens are now my currency and time is the enemy." On the point. I fear the point, when they will start to price you out of your fun projects.

@ZFXtrading Pea brain is exploding with ideas. I can't keep up... have agents running subagents night and day. Tokens are now my currency and time is the enemy. Hope you are well my man!

Codex is an absolute beast. I'm learning so much whilst it codes because it talks & questions like a dev. Its follow up suggestions and problem finding abilities are unreal. You'll often get a multichoice and have to dig into things to understand. This is where you start to understand and learn. And Adman just doubled our token limits for the week I think... even for cli.

@HayekAndKeynes ODTE that VIX1D, Baby!

Pretty massive intraday move - esp given market has gone nowhere

@John_Hempton @tofdaj Yesterday...

@tofdaj that would do it. Imagine a fault in an Nvidia chip that would render them completely insecure...

When does the market print the -7% day?

Unicorn time!

@HayekAndKeynes Tariffs alone don’t cause major inflation (they just shift were the money is spent. They may lead to deflation if a recession hits because of them). An increase in money supply can lead to inflation. And it's rising again.

No inflation yet again PPP - 0% m/m

@FRANCEScoHHHHH @robin_j_brooks EZB kaufte italienische Anleihen 45% ÜBER dem fairen Anteil, deutsche 46% DARUNTER.

@robin_j_brooks Guarda che la Bce ha acquistato i titoli di tutti gli Stati europei. Germania in primis.

Look at Italy. A country with lots of wealth that can and should be taxed. But that doesn't happen. Instead, Italy asks for periodic ECB help to keep its government bond yields low and - on the side - enthusiastically blames all its problems on German mercantilism. Such chutzpah.

@HayekAndKeynes Being up 5b and can still feel stupid of selling to early. Tough game.

Met a guy tonight who played online poker ages ago and sold 50k bitcoin for around $100k

@HayekAndKeynes Bureaucracy = Protection More bureaucracy = More tariffs on the other side justified Is this the line of thinking? As a German I believe my government would like that very much.

While I can understand why people don’t like Trump’s strong arm methods, I don’t get the wholesale disdain for tariffs. The US has a boatload of protections (workers rights, environmental regulations, financial reporting requirements, payroll taxes, social benefits, building codes, etc). Why on earth would you hold US workers to these standards but let goods in from overseas that don’t meet these criteria? Especially when they also impose tariffs and trade barriers on our exports. I’m all for letting the cheapest workers do the job it but level the playing field. Don’t tie our workers hands and guarantee they are perpetually uncompetitive.

@IPODave Snow at 120 would be nice

@studer77 @OAlexanderDK The U.S. holds 1/3 to 1/2 of German listed firms, >60% of MSCI World, and >25% of global GDP. USD dominates. Aid per person is low. It’s not about fairness—it’s if the U.S. wants it. P.S. The top 10%, who owns it, I mean.

@OAlexanderDK All the aid together is $174 Billion and the aid all together from with everyone else is $300 Billion. Trump exaggerated the total but is it fair that one country puts up more than half the aid?

Military aid to 🇺🇦: 🇺🇸: $64.13 billion 🇩🇰: $7.54 billion Pop: 🇺🇸: 347 million 🇩🇰: 6 million Aid per person: 🇺🇸: $184 🇩🇰: $1256 The U.S. was paying the equivalent of 3 large pizzas per person per year to destroy the Russian military & someone convinced them it was a bad deal

@0xQuit Witcher.

Top 10 video games of all time: 1- Halflife 2 2- Last of Us 3- Bioshock 4- WC3: TFT 5- League Of Legends 6- COD: MW2 7- Smash 64 8- WoW 9- Mario Kart 64 10- Bioshock Infinite Anybody who tells you otherwise is wrong

@WinterLars finanzen.net/fonds/dws-floa…

Jemand stellt euch 250k € zinslos zur freien Verfügung. Ihr könnt damit machen, was ihr wollt, müsst das Geld aber irgendwann in den kommenden 5 Jahren, frühestens nach einem Jahr (mit einer Frist von 3 Monaten), wieder vollständig zurückgeben. Was macht ihr damit?

@ValueAnalyst1 Killing 2/3 of German market with a tweet is although questionable. Maybe he is ahead of the curve, but atm it's just pain given current valuations.

🚨 One reason why I shorted $TSLA is Elon’s continued involvement in politics even after the elections. Democrats are now spreading the rhetoric that the world’s richest man is driving the country to a shutdown. This rhetoric could materially impact Tesla’s demand in the future.

@HalfersPower @BrianVCaffrey investopedia.com/dow-jones-toda…

@HalfersPower @BrianVCaffrey The disperson trade got big over the years as well as short vol hedged with vix calls. I think, someone does an exploitable roll within the space and can be attacked around vix expiry. Compare Aug. 22 (one day after vix). The afternoon attack can snowbal some days.

I monitor S&P500 sector correlations closely. There has not been a single larger increase in short-term sector correlations day over day than today (since ~2005). We increased from -.07 on the 17th of December to .57 today (18th of December). 2020 and late 2021 nearly rival.