Zelkyn

@TheBigBerbowski Good thing they don't have any DCs there or known plans to build one. Somewhat irrelevant for Nebius. The market might be scared that other states will follow suit

New York becomes the first state to impose a data center moratorium This is the news that tanked the whole sector: $NBIS $CIFR $IREN $WULF $SHAZ $WYFI. Will other states follow this move? Wdyt?

As an $ALAB shareholder, I just want to mention a few things. ​Is it expensive on every metric? Yes. But the question is why it is priced at a premium. Current growth has been driven mostly by traditional PCIe copper. In H2 2026, ScorpioX retimers are meant to become the main product line, which will accelerate growth further from current numbers (we don't see it in the forward ratios yet). On top of that, because of the massive memory demand, Leo (CXL pooling) will become a second rocket ship to drive revenue forward. ​The market is pricing these two in for flawless execution, but I think there is room for a surprise. Also, look at the $PENG report: $ALAB is their strategic partner, and their products are inside $PENG products. ​So, is $ALAB expensive? Today, yes. But the Q2 and Q3 guidance might well prove to us that, in fact, it wasn't that expensive. ​Just some of my thoughts, NFA.

Not necessarily cheap today but when we return, $ALAB and $BE will slingshot to Mars. Just a feeling.

Every passing day, the bottom for the AI buildout feels closer, and everything I keep reading is heading that way. It smells like a change of tides. Goldman's prime book just clocked the biggest week of hedge fund buying in US semis in at least three and a half years, and it landed right after the two largest back-to-back weeks of selling since June 2024. So the same funds dumping chips into the rally turned around and reloaded the moment the group pulled back. Semis are now about 10% of total hedge fund exposure, twice where they sat a year ago, though still under the 14% peak they hit in May. The selling in May and June wasn't a thesis breaking, it was profit-taking, funds trimming winners that had outrun their position limits after the AI semi basket ran more than 50% ahead of the S&P. Goldman called it rebalancing at the time. Then the pullback handed them a cheaper entry and they took it in size. That is what "the selloff is already over" looks like on a flow chart, the fast money deciding the discount won't last. I don't trade off hedge fund flows and neither should you. The flows are just Wall Street arriving at a conclusion the fundamentals reached first. Ten percent is still below the May peak, so this can keep running or it can roll right back over if earnings disappoint, and positioning this heavy is a crowded trade that cuts both ways. If TSMC and the Mag 7 miss into this, the same funds that just piled in can pile right back out. But this setup points to a bullish run if we're right about Mag 7 earnings season. Dates to watch: July 16: TSMC July 22: Google July 29: Microsoft, Meta July 30: Amazon, Apple Aug 4: AMD And the biggest of them all, Aug 26: Nvidia Overall, bullish for the AI buildout. Happy fishing this week.

@ThematicTrader I see the liquidation in Korea news everywhere on X yet I can't seem to verify these numbers anywhere else.

Maybe one more night of bleed in the KOSPI to really wipe out all the leverage in Korea and an undercut of this base lows? Reading 1.2M Korean accounts have been issued margin calls last night and 350k forcibly liquidated. This scenario really get market participants beared up like it is all over.

AI is not a bubble. Lazy AI bears point to $NVDA's market cap and through PTSD, claim it resembles $CSCO in March 2000. However, any useful bearish analysis should look at what actually made the 1990s market a bubble from a macro sense, and whether those conditions exist today. I now refer you to the attached chart. In the late 1990s the two lines veered apart. Tech investment went vertical toward ~4.5% of GDP, while the economy-wide profit share rolled over from its 1997 high and fell hard into 2000. Investment surged while profitability eroded...bubble! Today, the lines rise in tandem. Tech investment has pushed to roughly 4.9% of GDP, above the dotcom peak and climbing more steeply, while pre-tax corporate profits sit near 14% of GDP. Meanwhile leverage has (mostly) stayed contained and the US current account deficit is shrinking. However, bears point to record levels of investment in isolation, choosing to ignore the growing profitability in addition. Are they dumb, or are they ignorant? Probably both. In the run up to March 2000, share prices rose and multiples exploded. The market paid more and more for each dollar of invisible earnings. This time, forward P/Es have barely moved even as share prices rocketed, because earnings expectations rose alongside them. For example, the Nasdaq 100 trades around 23x forward earnings, near its own 10Y average versus ~60x in March 2000. But...but....the market is so concentrated!!1!1! Yes, the ten largest S&P 500 companies account for ~40% of the index, above the dotcom peak. But those ten companies contribute around 30% of total market earnings, compared to under 20% in 2000, and trade at roughly a 50% premium to the rest of the market against a premium north of 100% at the prior peak. Now, bears will say: "If the rally is earnings driven, everything depends on whether the earnings persist!" Correct. But unfortunately for the bears, this is where things get uncomfortable. AI type names have added on the order of $27 trillion in market value since late 2022, up from roughly $19 trillion just seven months earlier. Set that against any weak attempt to discount the additional profit streams AI can plausibly generate for US companies (estimates cluster in the trillions) and the market has capitalised a multiple of the realistic prize. Not all of that $27 trillion is AI (the hyperscalers run enormous non-AI businesses), and more aggressive assumptions on adoption and productivity can lift the number. But closing the gap requires increasingly heroic assumptions: - that recent shifts in earnings shares are highly persistent - that the boom's suppliers capture an outsized slice of AI's total economic gains - that the economy-wide profit share keeps climbing indefinitely Alright, cool. But what about all the circular financing?! - Nvidia has committed tens of billions to OpenAI while remaining its primary chip supplier - OpenAI has signed a cloud commitment with $ORCL reported around $300B - Oracle in turn buys from Nvidia - $MSFT is simultaneously OpenAI's largest investor and one of its largest vendors True, this somewhat resembles the dotcom vendor financing where Cisco booked loans to cash stricken carriers as revenue (roughly a tenth of sales at the peak), much of it later written off. However, today's arrangements are mostly equity stakes in counterparties with genuinely fast growing revenue rather than disguised loans to fund purchases, and Nvidia has lately been unwinding parts of its ecosystem book. And according to analyst reports, even the AI labs like Anthropic have now turned profitable. A feat many thought would be impossible only a year ago. Personally, I treat this circularity as risk rather than a point to build a bear case around since it's all ultimately leading to greater earnings across the board. Even for fronteir labs. Shock! This then leaves the one key question: Will barriers to entry protect today's profits from erosion? This entirely depends on each company's position in the AI supply chain. - At the model layer, barriers are relatively fragile where frontier models will almost certainly converge longer-term, and open source alternatives have the ability to reset price floors. However, AI soverignty will ultimately result in the likes of OpenAI/Anthropic winning. - At the hyperscaler layer, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, and $MSFT are set to spend (currently) $750B for 2026 AI capex where falling behind is not an option. These companies are led by people smarter than you or I - do you think they'll risk their entire business collapsing for AI? No. In fact, you can already see that AI is boosting their earnings measurably in recent earnings. - Going further down, you've got irreplaceable companies such as $ASML (EUV machines), $TSM (CoWoS packaging), and HBM with $MU, SK Hynix and Samsung who are gated by long qualification cycles and multi year LTAs where demand > supply up to the 2030's. The risk of a 2000 style valuation bubble is massively lower than the bearish consensus believes. The world is revolving around AI, and that'll continue for the forseeable future.

Je vous prépare une très grosse enquête sur la mafia du football argentin demain matin 🇦🇷 Probablement l'un des plus gros scandales couverts par la FIFA ces dernières années d'ailleurs

@SatoStocksTips @ren_stocks Are you investing in a chart or in a company?

@ren_stocks we wish it will continue to go up too but the charts are not looking good at the moment. Unless, there are a few more positive sessions then we will flip to the bulls again but right now we got to call a spade a spade. Leaning towards the bears for the semis and mem gang

$SNDK $MU You might want to follow people who know a thing or two, not the ones who stay quiet during downturns or panic sell. But the ones that encourage you to understand the underlying, the first principles, or even encourage you to keep adding. Anyway… What do we say to the god of death? NOT TODAY ⚡️

المقطع الاكثر حذفًا في تويتر من امبارح المقطع ده الفيفا بتطارده بحقوق النشر من امبارح وكل اللي بينشره بيتقفله حسابه او المقطع ينحذف ده باختصار ملخص الاخطاء التحكيمية امبارح وملخص المدعرة اللي عملها الحكم القذر ضد مصر اتفرجوا بعينكم … ظلم بيّن وسرقة

$ALAB is "too expensive", tbh I was hearing it since it was at 130. The best part is that CXL is not going to be the main revenue driver this year, but when it hits mass adoption it's going to be huge. Since $ALAB is strategic partner of $PENG, yesterday results only reaffirmed my conviction.

Semis rotation from CPUs + Optics into CXL + Connectivity do NOT let the lack of interest on CXL and Connectivity on FinX make you believe otherwise

Morgan Stanley released a memory note titled "Changing Tides" on July 6, and despite the name, I think it's one of the most bullish publications of the past week. Let me translate it for you. The scary part is that memory is hitting "peak rate of change." So the top is in, right? It's not. That's just the second derivative cooling off after a monster run. $SNDK went on almost a 1,000% run. A deep breather before it continues is healthy, and it creates a lot of opportunity. Even Morgan says it plainly: "but not the end of the cycle." Peak rate of change does not equal peak. The move slows down. The cycle keeps going. So why is it selling off? In their words, memory is "the most crowded area of the market," and people are trimming because exposure got too high to hold through the chop. Fine. Let the momentum traders be bygones and let the actual investors stay in the trade. I'm one year into the memory trade, I'm not backing down, and I'm only adding. Nobody sold because demand died. They sold because they were up huge and got nervous. Paper hands, as we call them. Positioning resets. Theses don't. Then there's the "chipflation" fear. The worry is that memory got so expensive it's squeezing the hyperscalers. Flip it. Memory is now pricey enough to change how the biggest spenders on earth behave. Memory stops being a commodity the second it has the bargaining power to dictate terms to the hyperscalers, the way NVIDIA does. That's a bottleneck flexing pricing power. One more line from the note worth pulling. Their stock preference is "where the money is being spent and bottlenecks emerging, favoring DRAM and legacy memory over NAND, while least preferred are memory module makers." For me, that just means there's room for the whole memory trade to work, not a single name. So what did MS actually say? Demand intact. Earnings compounding 35 to 40% into 2027. Agentic AI ramp coming. The only near-term risk is a crowded trade taking a breather before earnings. They handed you "why it dipped" and "why it still works" in the same paragraph. Near-term chop. Structural bull underneath. I know which one I'm positioned for. Bullish long term memory ⚡️

Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.

@Sandeman52 That dip gave you a perfect time to roll these calls. I remember the share price was catching up so quickly to your strikes. Hold strong, the conviction is real. I genuinely believe we can see 1T valuation in 5+ years

$NBIS Many of my new followers told me they were getting nervous yesterday. What they need to remember is the selloff is on total FUD and BS. This will happen during any bull run. Fake news, rumors, FUD, is all part of the process. Pick an arbitrary date in the future and anchor your mind to it. For me it’s March 2027. I care what the price is then, not today. For me it’s not arbitrary though…that’s when my covered calls expire. But you get the point. Focus on the horizon, not the individual waves hitting your ship. Otherwise you will get sea sick, and do something stupid.

@TheBigBerbowski @ChairmansLedger I agree. Personally I think $IREN will do really well as a company. I can't say the same about $IREN shareholders.

The problems people raised in the last couple of weeks remain. Shareholder value creation as an issue is not addressed through any deal. Basketball jersey 50m per year will not go away. The board that voted that RSU package is still there. If confirmed to be true, it will definitely improve the sentiment temporarily. I doubt it'll make people crawl back. NFA ofc, you know what to do.

All I’ll say is this. A lot of people who walked away on two legs may be crawling back on all fours. $IREN

@TheBigBerbowski It's hands down $NBIS. Over the next 5–10 years, the value of a vertically integrated software stack together with optimized cloud infrastructure for AI workloads will make them the AWS of AI. I can see Nebius reach 1T market cap. I don't see any other neocloud reaching that.

Datacenter/Neocloud Space Which company has the best risk/reward setup at the current price? $NBIS at $215 $CRWV at $81 $CIFR at $20 $CLSK at $13 $WYFI at $31 $WULF at $20 $CORZ at $22 $KEEL at $4 $HIVE at $3 Explain it in one sentence.

@babyfolio -10%. The $NBIS dip was too good to pass, will clear the margin on the next bounce :)

My usual question, how much cash are you all holding? I hold 0 cash rn.

When you're bullish and you're wrong, people call out your ideas as "stupid". When you're right they call the market irrational and you as a gambler. Just buy the SPY duh? When you're bearish and you're wrong numerous times nobody cares. You can call for market top every month/year, while the market rallies 100s%. Then all of a sudden there's a correction and you're genius because you called it so early? I can say the market is going to crash in the next 10 years. Mark it. Does this make me a genius too? Burry is the prime example of ego and straight up refusal to accept the reality. But on the other hand thanks to people like him we likely won't end up pumping a bubble like the dot com.

Michael Burry's AI crashout needs to be studied. Dude missed out on all the gains while going long shitcos like $LULU and $ADBE. Now all he does is try and crash the market like he did in November with his stupid doom posting. All because he's too arrogant to admit his mistake. Which is what inherently makes him a very bad investor - an ego the size of $MU's forward earnings. (See the irony there?) It's all very sad to witness.

Memory names are at single digit to low double digit forward PE. Yes, the margins will compress and the prices will stabilise, eventually. But what's the price floor? I don't think we'll ever see 2023 prices again. Even if the gross margin drops to 55% right now $MU forward PE will be around 12.5x IF on top of that memroy prices will drop 30% from todays levels, forward PE becomes 15.2x. This is all assuming demand is there and supply will increase 20% a year. In what world this is considered expensive? What if memory, especially the newer HBM generations become faster, better and more difficult to commoditise? The demand is exploding. The prices will eventually stabilise, memory names won't go parabolic like they did, but the upside is still there. Not financial advice $DRAM $MU $SNDK

Therefore $NBIS is the absolute BEST "neocloud". They will eventually become a hyperscaler, but for AI training and AI workloads, the AWS of AI. Having lots of GPUs and secured power is nice, but eventually your competition can get more power (solar, fuel cells etc.) or buy more GPUs (especially when you're a $NVDA strategic partner). You can't get the elite engineering team and the software stack over the span of one quarter. I will see you at 1T valuation in 2030. NFA

Based on the news in the past few days you'd think they overbuild and now they need to sell the "excess capacity". Seems like $META is trying to become a neocloud themselves rather than give up on the AI race. $NBIS $META $CRWV