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@LukeTryl Great analysis!
The "information environment" you mention is key. We see different parties campaign with charts saying they're the "tactical" choice. Each quote different metrics over different timeframes.
Sorting the helpful advice from the propaganda will be most important.
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Some reflections:
- Most obviously tactical voting is going to really matter as is the information environment.
- Tactical paralysis could become a real thing. Reform's 30% (ish) will be enough if left remains split, but not otherwise
- The right bloc is less willing to switch between itself than the left.
- Whoever becomes 'stop reform' party on left stands to benefit a lot (why Gorton matters so much)
- Tories best pitch maybe tactical voting will block reform if you want labour out we've got a *better* shot.
- Liberal Democrat voters are highly transactional, less of a glue than other parties.
YouGov@YouGov
🧵 / With tactical voting becoming ever more commonplace, who would voters back when only two parties stand a chance of winning their seat? Con 31% vs Ref 24% Lab 35% vs Ref 31% Lab 29% vs Con 28% LD 41% vs Ref 29% LD 34% vs Con 26% LD 29% vs Lab 21% LD 26% vs Grn 25% Grn 42% vs Ref 27% Grn 37% vs Con 29% Grn 30% vs Lab 20% yougov.co.uk/politics/artic…
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This is Matt Goodwin.
In response to the tragic LNER attack he blamed 'mass unctrolled migration' before any information had been released.
Then when it turned out the attacker was British and the hero was a migrant, he claimed that the attacker wasn't British because he was black.
Matt wants to represent a 40% non-white community in Gorton and Denton for racist Reform UK.

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The similarities are uncanny.

John Smith ⚒ 🇬🇧@JohnSmi34115189
The photo that wins the next General Election
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This makes no sense…
An MP can wake up one morning, ditch the party you elected them for, & sign up to a completely different manifesto…
And we’re supposed to be ok with that?
Nah
If they defect to a different party, we should get a vote
Sign the petition & help make that law.
petition.parliament.uk/petitions/7376…
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.@mizog366 @MarkReckless @UKIP @Nigel_Farage no chance. Been a Conservative all my life and will die a Conservative.
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@reformparty_uk @nadhimzahawi Might need to delete some tweets Nadhim
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Identifying "top disinformation spreaders" on X from the UK is subjective and depends on sources. From 2024-2026 reports by Amnesty, BBC, UK Parliament, Global Witness, and outlets like The Spectator, frequently cited accounts include:
1. TRobinsonNewEra
2. Nigel_Farage
3. KTHopkins
4. LozzaFox
5. Cobratate
6. PrisonPlanet
7. darrengrimes_
8. JuliaHB1
9. GeorgeGalloway
10. David_Icke
Always cross-check info with fact-checkers like Full Fact or Reuters.
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EL PASO — a family says ICE showed up at their house looking for migrants and shot and KILLED THEIR DOG, then didn’t help them as the agent ran away and was not identified.
kfoxtv.com/news/local/el-…

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New wave of tactical voting to ‘stop Reform’ and hamper Farage in local elections
theguardian.com/politics/2025/…
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