Dayu

198 posts

Dayu

Dayu

@dz_onx

🧑‍💻🪄 Analyzing markets…

United States Katılım Haziran 2020
315 Takip Edilen62 Takipçiler
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Mike Selig
Mike Selig@ChairmanSelig·
The @CFTC has clear and longstanding exclusive jurisdiction to regulate prediction markets. But recently, state regulators have tried to impose inconsistent and contrary obligations on CFTC-registered prediction markets. In response, the CFTC and @TheJusticeDept today filed three separate complaints in federal district courts against the states of Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to reassert our statutory authority over these markets. Read our full actions below⬇️ cftc.gov/PressRoom/Pres…
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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)@adamscochran·
Kalshi FINALLY calls out the BS lobbying. The insider trading and “death markets” people want banned are on Polymarket, which is based offshore in Panama. It is already *illegal* on CFTC regulated exchanges like Kalshi and the CME. It is SHOCKING we are still comparing offshore entities to those who spend **years** getting properly regulated. If you’re fed up with these illegal behaviors, we need to set the record straight on where they’re coming from or maybe run for office in Panama.
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Captain Jack Andrews
Captain Jack Andrews@capjack2000·
I'm not sure why people are ignoring the flaw in the data from @juice_reel here. The data Juice Reel gathers comes from their users tracking their bets on their site. Sportsbooks have been around longer than Juice Reel. PM's have not. Anytime you try something new, you are likely to be influenced by small sample size. Lose your first two bets, or 7 of your first 10, and you might sour on the product and quit.😖 When you do that it's as if you're gambling with a ridiculously small bankroll. Your risk-of-ruin is high. You skew the overall results. Nobody wins their first two bets and says "I'm done."🙅‍♂️ Happens all the time at both regulated books and PM's. If a sportsbook stepped up and provided that data (they won't), their numbers would look similar.📊 Meanwhile the bettors that have that same experience on regulated sportsbooks didn't track that on Juice Reel because in order to even want to USE Juice Reel they were already "established" enough to even want to track their bets. 🧐 In other words, break out that WWII bomber plane pic, this is Survivorship Bias. You're seeing an outsized number of data points of people who have a small sample size influenced by results.✈️ You could also add that the frictionless nature of the Robinhood integration gets a lot more people "giving it a try" than other platforms with higher barriers to entry. They are also more likely to be influenced by results.🤔
Quantіan@quantian1

Crazy story: A bank analyst published a report showing Kalshi users lose money even faster than sports gamblers, so Kalshi first tried to pressure the data provider to change their data and then accused them and the analyst of conspiring to extort them when that doesn’t work.

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Luana Lopes Lara
Luana Lopes Lara@luanalopeslara·
Kalshi Research is a dream come true. The power of prediction markets lies on the amazing data they generate - it’s time to put it to even better use. Also excited to see some of you in our first Prediction Market Conference in 2026 🫡
Kalshi@Kalshi

Introducing: @KalshiResearch Kalshi Research will provide internal Kalshi data to academics and other researchers interested in exploring topics related to prediction markets. The first research piece is live: Kalshi outperforms Wall Street at predicting inflation.

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Dayu
Dayu@dz_onx·
People wager daily w/o realizing it. TradFi called us “unsophisticated” for thinking in outcomes, not volatility - and kept the real opportunities gated. Prediction markets flip that power dynamic. Everything can have a price, and we’re just getting started.
Molly O’Shea@MollySOShea

How learnings & ideas from working at Goldman Sachs & Bridgewater, to Citadel & Citadel Securities, led Luana (@luanalopeslara) & Tarek (@mansourtarek_) to create Kalshi 7 years later, it's worth $11 billion.

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Kalshi
Kalshi@Kalshi·
CNBC x Kalshi The leading business news network integrates the leading prediction market. Kalshi’s data will supercharge CNBC’s reporting: unfiltered, accurate and market-driven. A new era of media is here.
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
$HOOD - ROBINHOOD TO ADD 100+ NEW PREDICTION MARKET CONTRACTS POWERED BY KALSHI
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Jason Trost
Jason Trost@jasontrost·
Sports betting and trading are converging because they’ve always been the same. Both deploy risk capital on uncertain outcomes. Both rely on information to set prices. Most participants lose net of fees. We called one “investing” and the other “betting.” That was always a cultural difference, not a structural one.
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Tarek Mansour
Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_·
Kalshi recently raised $300M+ at $5B from Sequoia, a16z, Paradigm and others. Since then, we've grown over 3x, hit $50B of annualized volume, and became the largest prediction market in the world. And today…Kalshi goes global. 140+ countries. 1 liquidity pool.
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The Rollup
The Rollup@therollupco·
Tarek (@mansourtarek_) breaks down @Kalshi's market size and the potential of prediction markets. "This has the potential to be the largest financial market on the planet."
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Kevin Park.hl
Kevin Park.hl@tenQkp·
tired of getting rekt alone? trade as a squad with your friends instead. see your squad's liquidation lines and place support orders to keep each other in the game @fanappX
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The Rollup
The Rollup@therollupco·
We’ve always been obsessed with being on the frontlines. That continues today. We’re bringing @Kalshi to Rollup TV. Prediction markets are accelerating and we will be right there as it happens. Live markets tied to trending topics, hot takes, and big ideas. The pulse on what’s next in digital assets. See you on the stream.
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
KALSHI SURGES PAST POLYMARKET IN VOLUME, GRABS GLOBAL DOMINANCE KALSHI IS UP FROM 3.1% to 62.2% MARKET SHARE IN ONE YEAR - THE BLOCK
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Daniel Negreanu
Daniel Negreanu@RealKidPoker·
Excited to announce my partnership with @Kalshi To celebrate, I’m staking one of YOU into the Super Main Event at @WSOP Paradise On Kalshi, you can trade on everything from Football to Politics to Pop Culture — it’s a game-changer and available in all 50 States! Details here:
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Kalshi
Kalshi@Kalshi·
Player props are live in all 50 states. Only on Kalshi.
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John Wang
John Wang@j0hnwang·
MYTH: “memecoins are more fun than prediction markets bc u can actually hit a 100x” REALITY: you can totally hit a 100x on prediction markets. and unlike memecoins, there aren’t months on end with zero “runners” and its not dominated by FnF cabals and snipers who farm everything
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