Eat Smoked Meat

@chrismartenson @barnes_law How much time is left? The 1-week to 2-months narrative hasn’t come to fruition yet.

Nobody who lives in the real world can believe we're basically ignoring the largest energy shock in history...but the fantasy/abstractionists truly believe we can paper this over, same as with a dodgy pile of human-constructed CDO paper. I blame too many years of good times.

@The_Real_Fly Things are about to change when the b.s. quality is this bad.

BEZOS: DATA CENTERS IN SPACE 'WILL HAPPEN'

@Mr_Derivatives What job boards are you liking?

$NDX The Nasdaq-100 in 1999-2000 had the most explosive move in history by going up 100% in 6 months. But it had pullbacks of -6.5%, -12%, -13%, -14% on the way up there. Right now we are up 30% in 1.5 months without any pullbacks. Fwiw.

@Mr_Derivatives Get out and get a job

Wen will $BTC and $ETH get the same kind of love as these memory/chip companies? Askin’ for a friend.

@Mr_Derivatives It's not investable. Look at the recent move to give retirement packages to long tenured employees. These are the people that built some of the largest systems on the planet.

$MSFT Another fresh 8 yr low today relative to the $QQQ etf. $MSFT Another fresh 25 yr low today relative to the $SOX index. Starting to get to the point of too hard to ignore here?

@MarioNawfal Did a bunch of cash spill out the door???

🇺🇸 Chicago police had Derek Jordan, 42, boxed in an alley in Humboldt Park. He was wanted for a shooting on the expressway. He rammed a bus, a squad car, and hit a pedestrian trying to escape. Officer Walzer yells "Get out of the f***ing car or I'll kill you"... then fires 6 shots through a tinted window. Walzer is stripped of his badge. George Floyd's attorneys now represent the family. COPA is investigating. The bodycam shows a man trying to ram his way through a police perimeter. It also shows an officer who announced he was going to kill someone before he did. Watch it yourself. What do you see?

@StanphylCap Because they love a good IPO price pump too in the circular economy. Google owns a stake.

Why would any LEGITIMATE company/CEO want anything to do with Musk in any capacity? He's a proven pathological liar/fraudster/sociopath, and unlike Trump he can't sic the government on you. If you're willing to do business now with Elon Musk, you're automatically "suspect."

@dampedspring Bunch of people in the laptop class voting that don't know what's happening at the pump is coming to their power bill very soon. Nobody lives paycheck to paycheck at all pay scales do they? 401k's will be raided.

Regarding if the stock market and whether it is or is not in the midst of a bubble. I'd vote for 1 or 2 but lean toward 1.

@JeffMacke We are up Christmas shopping

It’s nice being someplace where all the Tweeters are up at the same time I am.

@SaidAitmbarek @NathanWilbanks_ Are you self-hosting the smaller model?

Hot take: GLM-4.7 is the perfect coding model for indie hackers. Everything else is overkill.

@allen_drewe @StealthQE4 The model weights are freely available. Many excellent models of varying size and purpose are from China. They are self-hosted with no connection to another party. Look at the author names of the research papers.

@StealthQE4 This is the most absurd thing I’ve heard. No business is touching China AI that has a functioning legal department. In fact the entire allure of USA based AI is security especially IP security.

Interesting take: Is China about to do a giant AI dump into the US? I wouldn’t touch tech stocks rn.

@GlobalMacroZen Cheerleading for investment banking relationships seems to be the business model though.

Analyst compensation on Wall Street should change. Their salary should be tied to the stock performance they cover(up/or down) & their calls then we may see the real reform on Wall Street. Pay them $2,000 a month;rest of the money should be paid depending on their calls' accuracy

@grok @MarioNawfal Is the real reason Musk is against LiDAR is because of cost and that he knew that appeared to be a "nerd" car may not sell as well?

Radar is widely used in self-driving platforms like Waymo, Cruise, Mobileye, and Mercedes for reliable detection in weather and at range. Costs (2025 est.): LiDAR $200-1,000 per sensor; radar $50-250. Adding both: $500-2,000+ hardware, plus integration. Aesthetics: Radar hides in bumpers (low impact); LiDAR often roof-mounted, changing vehicle profile.

🚨 TESLA FSD JUST HIT SUPERHUMAN REFLEXES: NO RADAR, NO LIDAR, JUST CAMERAS Tesla’s new pure vision Full Self-Driving model can detect and react to obstacles in under 0.1 seconds… faster than the average human blink. That’s right: no radar, no LiDAR, just raw camera input + AI so fast it could beat you at Mario Kart and save your life. It’s a major flex for Elon’s “vision-only” bet, and a direct shot at the industry critics who said FSD couldn’t work without expensive sensors. If this holds up in the real world (not just demo clips), it’s not just a milestone but a paradigm shift in modern tech. Meanwhile, legacy automakers are still figuring out over-the-air updates. Source: @wholemars, @tesla

@grok @MarioNawfal What about radar as well? Is it being used by other self-driving platforms? How much would it likely cost to add either or both LiDAR and RADAR? Would it affect the aesthetics of the vehicle?

State-of-the-art LiDAR excels over Tesla-like cameras in: - Low-light conditions (e.g., night, tunnels) where cameras need sufficient illumination. - Adverse weather (fog, heavy rain, snow) as LiDAR penetrates better than visible light. - Precise long-range depth mapping, reducing errors from optical distortions. Cameras are cost-effective but can struggle here. Sources: Hesai Tech, Arrow.com, Outsight.

@StanphylCap You framed it with the assumption of massive profits, that's the easy part: unemployment benefit extensions like 2001-2003 then Optimus figures everything out (only a couple months from now anyway)!

@eatsmokedmeat Okay, that's one possible offset, but it depends what business those companies are in. If anything they sell is consumer-oriented, the tens of millions of layoffs may KILL most of their profits!

I'm contemplating the "AI will allow tens of millions of white-collar layoffs so profits will soar" bull case and have 2 questions: What will happen to the consumer spending that DRIVES the economy? What will happen to the 401(k)-driven "passive stock bid"? Answers welcome!

@stoolpresidente x.com/eatsmokedmeat/…

They all deserve it.

@StanphylCap They need a bigger space.

If you're looking for something interesting to see in NYC this weekend, this show at Poster House on W. 23rd Street is really good and very educational.

@edodreaming @Rogue_Wolf61 @Peter_Atwater $0? No disagreement that it's useful. At my work, AI is important and spending on external LLM services is less than 0.2% when added in with other infrastructure spending.

@eatsmokedmeat @Rogue_Wolf61 @Peter_Atwater Best money you can spend

With each passing day, the AI space looks more and more like home mortgage securitization at the peak of the housing bubble with its overlapping series of capital conveyor belts.