Ed Boyle

@LawrenceLepard How do you keep track for taxes (gains/losses on your sale of property)?

no bank, at minimal cost. NO RECORD. Seems pretty powerful to me. One 80 year old investor is going to go through this exercise with all his friends. Hopefully soon we will see signs in stores, "Bitcoin Lightning Accepted Here". This is the way folks. Grass roots.

Bitcoin usage thread. OK, so i was just a HODL person until recently. Great store of value. Why would I ever want to sell or dispose of #BTC ? Then i read @gladstein 's book and i interacted with @JeffBooth and they made the point that if we want to drive widespread

Muun uses a technology called submarine swaps to process Lightning payments. This means even when you send or receive a Lightning payment, Muun eventually routes it through an on-chain transaction. As a result, your Muun transaction history will include Transaction IDs (TxIDs) that link directly to a public block explorer. [1, 2, 3]

@River youtu.be/l4v8rLEI4Pg?is…

What is your favorite Bitcoin video and why?

@42NorthCounsel @willchen500 Lol. Law is *literally* code.

@willchen500 Law ain’t code my guy - if the tech was good enough so that having it make edits directly into the document (for anything but the most basic projects) was productive, we’d be doing it

Still happening in legal AI by the way

@APompliano Tariffs and oil

Everyone knows things got more expensive, but no one knows why.

@mikulaja And also weird when a journalist perverts your life work without cause

Wild that most founders think media exists only to tell their stories, the way they want them to be told—

@Nick_van_Eck @withAUSD Would it be better for Agora to be a deposit taking and yield paying bank (rather than a trust )?

The most active app (millions of transactions a day, 10x MoM growth across metrics) in one of crypto’s fastest-growing ecosystems chose @withAUSD as its foundation. Incredibly exciting to be a partner to their journey. Onchain capital markets accelerating.

@corygabrielsen I was going to disagree but now feel like a lemming

I think it's understudied the urge people feel to reply to someone on the Internet with a counterexample or rebuttal. It's nearly insatiable. We even debate bots. I'll be reading random replies I don't care about and find myself formulating counterexamples and rebuttals in my head. I have to actively and consciously avoid this at times. Is this the default human condition? Is this just adaptation to my environment?

@HarryStebbings I had a Wix site for a couple years, then upgraded to a coded one from an agency, then personally vibe coded a much better one on a Saturday morning with Opus 4.8. adding workflows might take another hour...less time than playing with templates.

The SaaS bloodbath has been beyond brutal. Wix for more than any other. This company is doing $2.1BN in ARR and they are valued at $2.1BN. Like WTF. And, they have Base44, one of the leaders in vibe coding, now doing over $170M in ARR. What is going on? How is this being priced at $2.1BN? I sat down with @Avishai_ab and have shared the biggest lessons below. 1. How Public Markets Are Getting Both Wix and SaaS Wrong Public markets routinely misprice tech cycles, hyping vibe-coding startups while discounting core SaaS engines. They ignore the moat of enterprise trust. Giants like Salesforce win because institutions trust them with sensitive data, creating security and compliance barriers automated code projects cannot easily replicate. 2. Was the Buyback a Terrible Decision? Timing the stock market is a fool’s errand. If your balance sheet has cash and your team is focused on core products instead of distracting M&A, a buyback during a dip can be rational. Capital allocation should be judged over three years, not a three-month panic. 3. How Do You Keep Talent When Your Market Cap Is Cratering? Stop treating talent attrition as a failure. It can be a healthy refresh. Bull markets make companies forget that elite teams are forged by solving hard problems, not coasting. When market caps fall, protecting your top tier can uncover hidden stars and make room for a hungry new generation. 4. How Do the Business Models Compare Between Wix and Base44? Scaling newer AI platforms requires ruthless focus on unit economics over expensive, generic LLM usage. The margin breakthrough comes from fine-tuning and combining smaller, custom models to match top-tier performance. Within two years, infrastructure cost declines could make AI COGS a non-issue for platform margins. 5. Why Wix Customers Will Not Churn to Vibe-Coded Solutions Mainstream SMBs have neither the desire nor capacity to build their own tech stacks with automated coding tools. Seemingly simple workflows, like vertical business logic for a hair salon, are surprisingly complex. Even elite engineering teams struggle to rebuild them quickly, proving vertical SaaS remains highly defensible. 6. Why Teams of the Future Will Not Be as Small as People Think The idea that future tech giants will run on skeleton crews managing thousands of AI agents is overhyped. The ecosystem gives too much credit to standalone AI capabilities. On granular business workflows, models still stumble, which means dense, capable human teams remain essential. 7. I Would Be Terrified if I Were in University Today, and My Advice to Students Entering the workforce today is uncertain, but current LLMs will not instantly replace white-collar jobs. Today’s models are strong at reframing data, not deep reasoning, and still make frequent mistakes. True disruption to human capital likely requires two or three more major breakthroughs. (links below)

@willchen500 That's brilliant. I was getting prompted and wrapped for years!

There’s a thread on Reddit complaining about juniors being AI wrappers. But many Biglaw partners are just associate wrappers. They are only present on deal kickoff and after closing. In between, their value add is forwarding whatever the associates send to them or simply staying silent on the CC list.

@defyneric @phantom @Stablecoin Adds counterparty risk and likely breaks the law...

one of the biggest monetization opportunities for wallets and neobanks is launching their own stablecoin: @phantom recently launched solana:CASHx9KJUStyftLFWGvEVf59SGeG9sh5FfcnZMVPCASH through @stablecoin, and it’s already sitting at a market cap of $125M. at a 3.75% yield, that’s roughly ~$4.7M in annual revenue generated from idle assets sitting inside the app. i don’t think most wallets or neobanks should try to compete with USDC or USDT. the better approach is to launch a stablecoin purely as a backend product that generates them yield on customer deposits. the customer never even truly has to know it exists. imagine a flow like this: > launch a stablecoin through a provider like @dakota_xyz > automatically convert cash, USDC, or USDT deposits into your own stablecoin behind the scenes > continue showing the customer their USD balance like normal > earn ~3.75% on those idle deposits and unlock an entirely new revenue stream it’s a simple but super smart way to turn idle deposits into a revenue stream. i predict many neobanks will eventually adopt this model of gated/walled stablecoins.

@daniel_koss @babyfolio @itsalasdairmann @misthopoulos

Big personal announcement! @babyfolio, @itsalasdairmann and I are joining forces to build the best investor community on the internet: Edelbridge Alpha. We believe in one thing above all: performance. Ali: +320% YTD Baby: +270% YTD Me: +360% YTD and now +3,365% since Jan 2024 There is endless investing content online. Much of it is generic, consensus-driven, hard to act on, or AI-repackaged by people who never show their true results. Edelbridge Alpha is built to be the opposite: original alpha, actionable, short and specific posts, transparent numbers and accountability. What subscribers get: - High-conviction investment ideas - Actionable trade ideas - Full portfolio updates - Peer-reviewed deep dives - Financial models and price targets - Industry insights - Macro thoughts and analysis - Exclusive insights from executives at companies we follow Each of us writes with our own style, opinions, and approach. No committee takes! No hedged consensus "should, could, would, might". We share real price targets and our actual numeric assumptions! We'll be right or wrong and you can tell! :) And the three of us are only the founding contributors. We will selectively invite more high-performing investors and traders on X, many of whom you likely already follow ;) The bar: consistent performance, independent thinking, and original analysis that actually generates alpha. Paid subscribers will (next week) also get optional access to a private, actively moderated Discord to discuss the ideas together, red team them, openly discuss risks and build conviction or spot scary risks or when a thesis breaks. Spam, insults, and low-quality noise get removed instantly, even from paying members. The room stays high-signal. I started investing because I refused to watch inflation eat my savings, and it became an obsession because, like competitive gaming, there is an objective scorecard. But the messages from readers who paid off debt or started funding their kids' education made me realize this could be so much bigger. That's what I want to work on now! Link to the Edelbridge Alpha Substack is in my bio. Join us from day one!

@AlexH_Johnson Which one should just buy a bank?

Can Stripe build Circle before Circle builds Stripe? There’s an opportunity for someone to use a regulated, USD-backed stablecoin to significantly disrupt the global payments ecosystem. This is not a big direct revenue generation opportunity because the economics of stablecoins aren’t that good (especially if there’s any competition). However, it is a big indirect revenue generation opportunity if you can stack value-add services on top of a ubiquitous stablecoin rail. Circle is well on its way to owning that regulated, USD-backed stablecoin rail. More recently, it has been working to build out those value-add services (CCTP, CPN, USYC, agentic payments capabilities, etc.) Stripe obviously has a ton of value-add payments services already built. It has been working to retrofit those services for stablecoins and to build new, stablecoin-native value-add services. The problem for Stripe is that it doesn’t control the underlying stablecoin payment rail. Circle does and it has been working to vertically integrate it in order to lock the Stripes of the world out of the more lucrative opportunities higher up in the stack. Stripe’s initial response was to acquire Bridge and (through Bridge) to issue its own stablecoin (USDB). What Stripe seems to have realized is that this strategy for building out the Circle side of its business is going to take too long. Circle has too big of a lead. So, Stripe has taken a page out of the big banks’ book and has launched a consortium (Open Standard) which will develop its own regulated, USD-backed payment stablecoin (OUSD) to compete with Circle. It has convinced quite a few other companies to be a part of the consortium as well, including Adyen, Visa, Mastercard, American Express, U.S. Bank, Coinbase, Google, and Shopify. Stripe is incentivizing participation by creating a somewhat-decentralized governance structure for Open Standard and is incentivizing adoption by eliminating fees to mint and redeem and sharing nearly all the float revenue with the partners who are using OUSD. Essentially, Stripe is teaming up with everyone who makes money in any part of the payments stack (except Circle) and creating a new stablecoin business model that makes stablecoin issuance unsurvivable as a standalone business. This puts Circle in a tough spot, because, unlike Stripe, Circle can’t adopt a consortium-style approach to building out the Stripe side of its business. It needs to own that side of the business, which means it needs to build (or acquire) it itself. OUSD isn’t guaranteed to succeed. It has some massive execution and governance challenges ahead of it. And regulators will have their say, at some point. But it is an indicator of how important Stripe (and its partners) think regulated, USD-backed stablecoins are as foundational payments infrastructure.

AI “wrapper” companies are evaluated under ASC 606 (principal vs agent logic.) If they are reselling model APIs (thin UI + prompt orchestration), they risk being classified as agents and should recognize revenue net of token/API costs. If they embed AI into a broader workflow and deliver a defined business outcome, they are principals and recognize gross revenue, with tokens treated as COGS. The distinction is control over the service, not whether costs are passed through.

A question that I don’t see anyone discussing: Due to rising API costs, vertical AI SaaS are moving to consumption pricing. But if you are passing through token costs to your customers - does that still count as part of ARR/revenue? Or does that become akin to GMV? For example, e-commerce platforms do not count the value of goods sold on their platform as revenue. Nor do payment processors like Stripe or Adyen count transaction volume as revenue. If pass-through token costs do not count as revenue, the revenues of many vertical AI SaaS startups will have to be drastically readjusted and might be negative in many case due to high fixed and operating costs.

@RoundtableSpace Not $599

A $599 MAC MINI JUST BECAME A 14-HOUR PORTABLE AI WORKSTATION

@edwardmorra_btc @goldfinch_fi what? i dont get it. i thought they were just putting the money into huge funds like KKR, Golub, Blackstone. did they outright lie? how can their site say 1000 loans and $1T of AUM when the protocol says a TVL of just $1.5M???

I got absolutely rekt by Goldfinch @goldfinch_fi These idiots mismanaged over $50M of our money. Out of 8 borrowers - 2 are in default and 6 in restructuring. Basically money is gone. 1st time I deposited in Sep 2021, then 2 more times in 2022. It's been fucking five years and I still haven't got my money back in full (and never will), let alone the promised 10% APY. Dashboard on their website says total loss rate is 20% but in reality its closer to 70% now. Since I requested the withdrawal in August 2023 I received only 30% of my money back. Best case scenario is I get another 10% over the next 1-2 years. They hired a CRO with a $400k yearly salary who is posting updates twice per month in discord and thats about it. Occasionally they may request $50k - $150k for various other needs. All this money is being taken from the treasury of course. CT doesn't know about it yet but Goldfinch is closing down soon. There is "wind down" announcement posted in discord, soon it will be public. Their official twitter page is run by a reply bot anyway so who cares anyway. $GFI token is -99% and imo will be delisted sooner or later because project is dead. Prime example of how fragile DeFi can be.

@Giovann35084111 Adjust for inflation?

This table should give you an idea of historical deviations from the power law for the minima in terms of todays values. The largest negative deviation would have brought us down to $27K . Current deviations are similar to 2012 and 2015 bottoms.

@Bencera Is it 100x cheaper or 100÷ cheaper?

Uber had a $500M Anthropic bill in a single month. Mine was over $1M. So I rented GPUs and now use open-source models. 100x cheaper. The future of AI is Open-source.

@EliBenSasson Market cap is FDV math: last price x supply. A $20T market cap doesnt need $20T in liquidity, it just needs a sliver of the float to trade at share price that implies the total FDV.

@ejboyl I don't, how does it work?

Go crypto: Excited about the $1T+ mega-IPOs? Don't. Total market cap of NASDAQ+NYSE = $69T. If each of Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI IPO at $2T, there isn't enough money in the whole market for each to do 10x. DYOR, not investment advice.

@HarryStebbings @VCBrags

Today is my 30th birthday 🎈 I thought I’d reflect on the decade that has been: 💵 Raised $1BN 🚀 170 investments 🦄 18 unicorn investments 🎙️ 2,500 podcast episodes 🌎 110M downloads I have never been more hungry. I have never been more ambitious. This is just the start. To my 30s. LFG.