ericbowenky

Tehran checkpoints are EMPTY. Basij in hiding. The regime is disappearing from the very streets it once ruled through fear. There is no clear IRGC leadership. Just a shadowy inner circle scrambling to hold control as the chain of command fractures. The regime is unraveling in real time.

🚨 The Islamic Republic turned a charity caring for 400 disabled girls into human shields. IRGC forces demanded to station 50 troops inside a care facility for children with intellectual disabilities in Mashhad, run by Zahra Hojjat, believing the site would be shielded from Israeli/US strikes because it houses vulnerable children. She said no. Zahra Hojjat, who cares for 400 children at the charity and calls herself their mother, refused to let them use the girls as cover. For that, she was violently arrested. Her whereabouts are unknown, and her life is at risk. A regime that punishes a woman for protecting vulnerable children has crossed every moral line and stands as an enemy to its own people.

I have yet to see a rational analysis coming from the European quarter about events unfolding with the implosion of the Mulla and soon to be IRGC regime. So let’s start with the simplest question first. What nation or kingdom in human history won a war against an entire coalition that nation themselves caused to align against them with an entire economy in ruins, 90%+ of their own native populace in open rebellion against their ruthless and tyrannical rule, and a completely insolvent currency where new issuances must be printed just so food and life cycle goods can be traded and purchased all while hiding in underground bunkers utilizing street thugs and gangs to continue terrorizing the local populace so as to intimidate some level of compliance? Oh, lest I forget, add to this ongoing absolute destruction of any and all state industry and assets while local government technocrats fail to even attend their office or official duties. I’ll wait…

Just got off the phone with a source tied to European intelligence. He laid out a theory on Hormuz that stopped me cold. It’s a continuation of my previous Hormuz Hypothesis. If true, it explains everything. If true, the strait isn’t reopening this year. Talked to @mercaborglanos. He couldn’t punch a hole in it. Working on how to present this. It could panic markets and unleash hell on me from every direction so I should be careful. Plus the TDS afflicted would do everything possible to discredit me and knives would be out from certain groups in my own party. 🤯​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ What I can say is…. what if Trump really is trying to prevent a mega catastrophe? What if everyone’s worst case scenario right now is too conservative? Why has Big Oil and the other Gulf States been relatively silent while the rest of the world screams for US troops to withdraw? Why would Trump want crappy European frigates in Hormuz? Why wouldn’t he send more extremely capable destroyers? Why is he leaving US Merchant Marine ships in the Gulf unprotected? Why is Joe Kent still so supportive of Trump? Why hasn’t Trump gone on a tirade against Joe? Why can’t anyone tell us if there are mines in Hormuz or not? Why aren’t citizens of Iran overthrowing the government? Why aren’t Iran proxies like the Houthis going on the offensive? Why are we unsactioning Iranian oil tankers? Why are refineries blowing up in Russia and Texas? Why has the US asked China to step in and help? Something is seriously wrong and I’ve only heard one explanation that answers every question. What if my Hormuz Hypothesis is correct but the stakes are MUCH higher than anyone thought? 👇

“for every one that asks receives, and he that seeks finds, and to him that knocks it shall be opened.” Matthew 7:8 JUB bible.com/bible/1077/mat…

@maria_drutska One can only imagine the premium on rather complex refining equipment systems are these days with so many technology sanctions in place and the demand rising recently…

Primorsk and Ust-Luga oil export terminals offline as drone sanctions turn oil infrastructure into heat and smoke. No matter what the price of oil is, Russia can't make money from their oil if they can't export it. 😎 Expect a lot more drone sanctions in the coming weeks.🔥

“¶ As the hart pants after the water brooks, so does my soul pant after thee, O God.” Psalms 42:1 JUB bible.com/bible/1077/psa…

@GordonGChang We are blessed today.

There is now calm in the American heartland.

On top of which China wont have any interests in providing material support to the IRGC regime without access to all that energy while all the masses in Iran along with the majority of technocrats and business communities will follow who controls the energy and thereby all revenues going forward. There are other reasons but those are better left for discussions as events unfold.

90% of Iran’s oil exports denied is a lot more than ineffective.🙄

On top of which China wont have any interests in providing material support to the IRGC regime without access to all that energy while all the masses in Iran along with the majority of technocrats and business communities will follow who controls the energy and thereby all revenues going forward. There are other reasons but those are better left for discussions as events unfold.

The US is going to take Kharg island. Then they are going to sell the oil and give 50% of the money to the Iranians from each shipment. Just like he is doing with Venezuela. They won’t get all the money. But because it won’t be sanctioned anymore it will fetch a higher price. This gives control of the money flow to the US but also puts Iran in a tough spot. Get 50% of the oil money or If they bomb Kharg island to remove the US they damage the infrastructure and get no oil money for 3-5 years by damaging their oil infrastructure. I don’t know if it will work. But that is what Trump is going to try. He literally has showed the exact playbook with Venezuelan oil.

How does capturing Kharg Island (regardless of how intact it is taken) force the Iranians to open the SoH? How is the US forced to take Kharg Island at all?

“For godly sorrow works repentance to salvation, of which there is no need to repented; but the sorrow of the world works death.” 2 Corinthians 7:10 JUB bible.com/bible/1077/2co…

The IRGC leadership had no time to develop a new plan after the majority of the Islamic republic leadership was removed in the opening operation. The 2nd tier was wiped out shortly after. This means contingency operations became the modus operandi of the now completely decentralized command structure that is currently launching missiles and drones at all GCC neighbors as well as Israel, Jordan , and others. Those contingency operations would have been in place long before the first bombs were dropped by Israel. So what everyone is seeing is what the IRGC planned all along when they had unconventional warheads besides conventional and cluster warheads for their missiles. So waiting for the IRGC to preemptively launch these operations was tantamount to suicide for most of the near east nations and peoples along with Israel for those who keep pounding sand over Israel's interest in this war. The entire region was going to burn and all these operations which were clearly planned well in advance prove so beyond dispute.

I have a genius idea: send another strongly worded letter… then jot down a solution in an x post that only works if you own a time machine. Brilliant.

@johnkonrad @mercoglianos x.com/i/grok/share/f…

I don’t know Rosemary, don’t vouch for her work but this post is dead accurate. As @mercoglianos and I have been saying since the start of the Red Sea, modern tankers aren’t as easy to sink as the Navy thinks they are. One of our tankers carrying jet fuel got tanker by a Russian captain last year, massive flame, massive heat, massive release of energy and not only did she not sink but much of her cargo remained intact.

It's wiser to target the power distribution stations rather than the generation plants if the goal is to disrupt the IRGC regime until the regime implodes but allow relatively reasonable rebuild times and resources after transitional government takes power. This method is also the least expensive to replace after transition begins. However either will completely disrupt current IRGC facilities and operations as well as any remaining manufacturing or production since Air dominance is already established and US air power is focusing on leveling any and all industry the IRGC can use in conflict.

I think this is mostly posturing but power infrastructure was targeted in some shape or form in both Desert Storm and Operations Iraqi Freedom. "During Desert Storm attacks on electric power accounted for 215 sorties, or about 1 percent of the total US sorties flown. These attacks virtually eliminated any ability of the Iraqi national power system to generate or transfer power by reducing the generating capacity to less than 300 megawatts, and the transmission ability to one-quarter of the prewar capability"

@TechLayoffLover Which would be far more likely with developers earning 28K from Bangladesh for example...

@TechLayoffLover That is before those companies get to the point where malefactors hijack their AI systems and hold them for ransom.

QA lead at a major cloud provider just messaged me crying She spent 6 months building their "revolutionary" AI testing framework from scratch 218,000 lines of code. 47 different test scenario categories. Integration with 12 internal systems Management kept praising her work. "This is the future of quality assurance." Got a spot bonus in September. Her framework can execute 2,400 test cases in 18 minutes. Her old team of 14 people needed 6 days for the same coverage She trained it on every edge case her team discovered over 4 years. Fed it 89,000 historical test cases. Documented every workflow. Two weeks ago leadership announced the QA org "evolution." 97 people affected. "Transitioning to AI-driven quality processes" Her framework is staying. Her team isn't. The system she built can catch regressions 340% faster than humans. It generates test plans from PRs automatically. It even writes bug reports in JIRA. She literally automated herself and 96 colleagues out of existence Her manager told her yesterday: "You've built something incredible. The business impact is undeniable. Unfortunately your role is now redundant." Last day is Friday. Severance covers 8 weeks. The framework she built will save the company $4.2M annually in QA salaries She's 34 with a mortgage and two kids The job postings for "AI QA Engineers" all require 5+ years with the exact framework she invented But they're only hiring 6 people total. To replace 97. The offshore team in Bangalore is already trained on her system. They start Monday at $28k per year each. She asked if she could at least get a reference for building it HR said company policy prevents discussing proprietary AI implementations Her life's work became their competitive advantage and her pink slip

Venezuela possesses the largest natural gas reserves in South America, totaling 195 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) as of 2023, with a significant portion located offshore on its northern sea shelf. These offshore deposits are primarily located in the Caribbean basin, adjacent to the northeastern coast and in the Gulf of Venezuela. [1, 2, 3, 4] Key Offshore Gas Fields and Locations Mariscal Sucre Project: Located north of the Paria Peninsula, this area includes the Dragon, Mejillones, Patao, and Rio Caribe fields. Plataforma Deltana: Situated near the maritime border with Trinidad and Tobago, this area includes the Cocuina-Manakin field, which holds an estimated 1 Tcf of proven gas reserves. Perla Field (Cardón IV): A major natural gas field located in the Gulf of Venezuela. Loran-Manatee: A shared discovery with Trinidad and Tobago, with a significant 7.3 Tcf on the Venezuelan side. [5, 6, 7, 8, 9] Map ContextualizationMaps of Venezuela's offshore gas reserves generally show high concentrations in three key areas: Northwest (Gulf of Venezuela): Adjacent to the Paraguana Peninsula. Northeast (Caribbean Sea): North of the Paria Peninsula and Margarita Island. East (Atlantic Offshore): The Plataforma Deltana region. [3, 6] Most of Venezuela's gas is "associated gas" (produced with oil), but the northern offshore fields hold immense non-associated natural gas potential that is largely untapped. [1, 10, 11] AI can make mistakes, so double-check responses [1] eia.gov/international/… [2] facebook.com/theengineering… [3] osti.gov/biblio/6049443 [4] aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/8/… [5] gem.wiki/Dragon_Gas_Fie… [6] reuters.com/business/energ… [7] worldview.stratfor.com/article/venezu… [8] energynow.tt/blog/venezuela… [9] keyfactsenergy.com/news/34023/vie… [10] globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/f… [11] worldview.stratfor.com/article/venezu…

“Hospitals are LAST in line” It’s ok to laugh in the guys’ face..

Find your courage folks because the regime holding the entire region hostage including their 90 million populace is the IRGC. Their mask is off with their indiscriminate fire at all the gulf States which was clearly their plan before any action was taken by Israel once they finally developed the nuclear detonator/initiator the IRGC was seeking all these previous months that had eluded them for the fissile material they refined over the years to 60%. The only reason the IRGC had for stopping at 60% was because they couldnt engineer the initiator for the type of fissile material they currently possess. After the previous attack on the IRGC nuclear sites the IRGC was racing to use AI to rapidly engineer the initiator. There was several articles since then suggesting the IRGC were doing so while the Islamic republic technocrats shielded the effort with ongoing diplomacy. Most of this was printing in news in various regions of the world while people were focused on other crisis. So the pearl clutching is rather curious considering this was all happening relatively in the open. The good guys are not the ones that want to see the world burn because others wont recognize their might and right to rule all their neighbors to fulfill their lusts to prove their power and dominance.

Dear God, help us all…

@ItsTheEnforcer Which of these terms would you accept for a ceasefire? x.com/Osint613/statu…

Ukrainian forces have already replaced most of their zero line to 20km logistics with remote controlled UGV's and drones. The transformation of optionally manned forces in Ukraine is already well under way beyond any Nato force at this point especially with battlefield logistics and medevac.

I've been saying since 2023 that drones are replacing infantry on the battlefield. Western militaries are still in deep denial of this reality.