Eric Navarro

2.2K posts

Eric Navarro

Eric Navarro

@ericnavarro

Katılım Mayıs 2009
384 Takip Edilen125 Takipçiler
Geraldo Rivera
Geraldo Rivera@GeraldoRivera·
Unless we get the Strait of Hormuz open, everything else is just bullshit. And don’t expect China to help out. They love seeing us suffer the folly of our own making.
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Richard N. Haass
Richard N. Haass@RichardHaass·
You may not like my pointing out that both Putin and Trump initiated wars of choice (in Ukraine & Iran respectively) where the costs have proven far greater than benefits for them and their country but that doesn't make it less true.
Marc Thiessen@marcthiessen

What a horrible analogy

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James E. Thorne
James E. Thorne@DrJStrategy·
For the record. When will the president get the credit he deserves ? President Trump’s Iran ceasefire has been dismissed by much of the commentary class as the messy coda to a failed experiment in shock and sanctions. Metz went so far as to say that Trump had been “humiliated.” Voters will recognise something different. On the eve of a War Powers showdown, Trump accepted a tightly bounded truce with Tehran and then told Congress that “the hostilities that began on February 28, 2026, have terminated” and that there has been “no exchange of fire” since early April. In a single move, he froze a costly air campaign at the moment of maximum American advantage, shut off the statutory clock that threatened to box him in, and kept every meaningful instrument of pressure on Iran. President Trump deserves credit for knowing when to stop firing missiles and start banking leverage. The episode so many commentators cite as proof of American decline actually shows something else. Operation Epic Fury, coupled with sustained economic and financial pressure, has not only bloodied Iran; it has exposed how little Europe, the UK, NATO and even China could do to shape events once Washington moved first and then abruptly changed tempo. Ordinary Americans can see the opposite: no one rushed in to replace the United States, and most of the world quietly waited to see what Washington would do next. Clausewitz would not be surprised. For him, war is a continuation of politics by other means, to be started and stopped when it serves the political object, not the expectations of pundits. Trump treated the air campaign as a phase in a larger contest, and he was willing to suspend it the moment it had done its work, crippling Iran’s capabilities, clarifying who still sets the pace in the Gulf, and improving America’s position in the global balance. In a world after Pax Americana, secure energy, food and critical minerals are increasingly a North American story. The operation that supposedly “proved” U.S. weakness has instead reminded allies, rivals and investors where crisis management capacity still reside, and that President Trump is prepared to use American military, legal and economic power in concert to make that fact impossible to ignore.
Wall Street Journal Opinion@WSJopinion

President Trump deserves credit for staying the course on Iran when so many around him are losing their nerve. on.wsj.com/4n2uf8N

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Open Source Intel
Open Source Intel@Osint613·
CNBC: Despite nearly 3 years of continuous conflict, Israel is on track to outgrow every G7 economy this year. Unemployment sits at 3.2%, inflation remains below 2%, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has climbed roughly 20% since January, and the shekel has strengthened about 7% against the dollar. The momentum is being fueled by a dominant tech sector, surging foreign investment in cybersecurity, expanding defense exports, and a highly skilled workforce, pushing Israel’s performance ahead of the U.S., European Union, and United Kingdom.
Open Source Intel tweet media
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Eric Navarro
Eric Navarro@ericnavarro·
@SethAMandel @joelpollak This is not being discussed. By attacking its Arab neighbors, Iran has strengthen the security framework between those countries and the US. And Israel by extension. This will extend beyond this specific conflict.
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Seth Mandel
Seth Mandel@SethAMandel·
An underappreciated story is the remarkable strengthening of America's alliances with Arab states, and the fruits of those efforts. Today's meeting with Lebanon was a historic reminder: commentary.org/seth-mandel/am…
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Open Source Intel
Open Source Intel@Osint613·
WSJ: European nations are assembling a broad coalition to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially without U.S. involvement.
Open Source Intel tweet media
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Ned Ryun
Ned Ryun@nedryun·
"America’s leverage in the Strait exposes Iran’s weakness—turning its greatest asset into a liability and reshaping the balance of power without a ground war." amgreatness.com/2026/04/14/ira…
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Eric Navarro
Eric Navarro@ericnavarro·
@ratlpolicy Correct. It would make it nearly impossible for the US to effectively project power.
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Mike Coté
Mike Coté@ratlpolicy·
The idea that we should make major foreign policy decisions based on the short-term impact to cost of living in the US is ridiculous. That would give our enemies such enormous leverage over us that it would basically neuter our superpower status.
James E. Clyburn@RepJamesClyburn

For anyone hoping gas prices will come down soon, Trump admitted that price could be the same or higher six months from now. Trump launched this senseless war without any concern for what it would mean for the American people, who were already struggling to make ends meet.

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Tim Pool
Tim Pool@Timcast·
US crude at record exports in the Gulf while the Strait of Hormuz is closed. The theory is that the US wants to cut off China from a major supplier of energy but can't publicly declare they are driving up gas prices intentionally to harm an adversary
Tim Pool tweet media
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Eric Navarro
Eric Navarro@ericnavarro·
@glcarlstrom Why would making China buy oil from somewhere other than Iran be a bad thing?
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Gregg Carlstrom
Gregg Carlstrom@glcarlstrom·
If no Iranian oil ever goes to China again, then China will just... buy oil from elsewhere, pushing up prices for everyone else By far the worst takes over the past six weeks have come from the folks in DC trying to spin this war as some brilliant 4D chess move against China
Semafor@semafor

"I think blocking the Strait of Hormuz is fine from my standpoint," @SenRickScott tells @burgessev. “If no oil ever goes to China again, and their economy is destroyed, that would be a really wonderful day for me."

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Eric Navarro
Eric Navarro@ericnavarro·
@RC_Greenway @JimHansonDC This is a critical point. US capabilities dont exist in a vacuum. They far outpace our adversaries’. The world is being reminded of this.
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Robert Greenway
Robert Greenway@RC_Greenway·
One of the most important but least discussed lessons gleaned from US military actions taken against Venezuela and Iran is not the breathtaking success but that China and Russia are neither willing nor able to stop us or come to the aid of their allies, and that the assistance provided them was utterly useless. As states consider a “multipolar” world one nation stands apart. 🇺🇸
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47

.@POTUS on reports that China is preparing to ship weapons to Iran: "If China does that, China is gonna have big problems."

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Open Source Intel
Open Source Intel@Osint613·
Lebanese MP Camille Chamoun: "Nothing in war is humane, but if Israel had wanted to annihilate the Shiites in Lebanon, it would not bother giving early warnings, we’d see 100,000 casualties instead of 2,000."
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Jim Hanson
Jim Hanson@JimHansonDC·
If Iran does not negotiate in good faith, President Trump should seize Iranian oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz. It's legal through US maximum pressure sanctions and by maritime law covering armed conflicts. Take the Oil! meforum.org/mef-observer/t…
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Eric Navarro
Eric Navarro@ericnavarro·
@JesseKellyDC Sorry. This is lazy analysis. You’re assuming that a pause in kinetic action is the end of the campaign. It is not.
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Jesse Kelly
Jesse Kelly@JesseKellyDC·
It seems a lot of people haven’t accepted that we are likely down to two options with Iran: -a long, costly ground war or -a peace deal with a lot of crappy stuff in it Probably something that should have been considered BEFORE setting off. But here we are.
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David Reaboi, Late Republic Nonsense
That’s how it looks right now. All kinds of arguments can be made about how the US achieved its war aims by degrading Iranian power projection—and it’s partly true—but clearly the US was incapable or unwilling to keep Hormuz open. (As it was incapable or unwilling with the Houthis last year.) If America can’t do that, we are a paper tiger waiting for the rain storm.
Eupolemus@Eupolemus150

@davereaboi From where i'm standing Trump surrendered to Iran, made Lebanon a territory of the Mullahs, and has now demanded that Israel halt ALL operations in every theatre from which Israelis have been bombarded by tens of thousands of missiles. Meanwhile the info op on X inverts reality.

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James Lindsay, anti-Communist
James Lindsay, anti-Communist@ConceptualJames·
We live in an unprecedented age of propaganda. You must prepare yourself.
Wasson Watch Co.@WassonWatch

Propaganda and Information Warfare: The Battlefield is Your Mind Most folks don't realize this, but you're literally being inundated with propaganda all the time. We live in a society in which our political leaders derive power through consensus. If many people, ideally a majority, support a specific policy, it becomes easier to enact. If there is little support, and much opposition, enacting it is more difficult. Consensus can be manufactured. It can be cajoled into existence. This is achieved through propaganda. Most people have some innate level of distrust for propaganda. When they notice that it is propaganda, their defenses go up. They may become even harder to convince. So the propaganda has to be good. It has to be believable. It has to feel natural - organic. Daily I see people panicking online about the War in Iran. It's not just on X. I see it on Facebook, amongst real people I know in real life - often folks who are not even that political active or involved. But they suddenly have strong opinions about a war they don't truly understand. How did this happen? It was accomplished through an all-out assault on your frontal cortex. It starts with the traditional sources. The mainstream media talking heads push fear-mongering narratives. They call everything unprecedented (in the most negative terms). They micro-focus on the negative. They emphasize the dissent of other nations and international organizations. They catastrophize, musing constantly about how bad things could go. They cast Iran as a victim, and the US (especially Trump) as a big bully. They underplay or straight-up ignore Iran's history of killing Americans, Israelis, and other people worldwide. They forget all about the constant rocket attacks, the threats, and the ever-forward march of their nuclear program. The mainstream media takes are all that some folks need. Frankly, they're ready to swallow it all, hook, line, and sinker, and they do. But many folks need more. This is where the influencers come in. Big and small, they use X, Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, YouTube, and every other social media platform you can think of to take a more personal, "organic" approach to it all. They drop the "official" tone of the talking heads on the MSM, and express feelings with raw emotion. They ask questions like, "Why would they do this? Am I crazy?" Their approach provides plausible deniability of perceived neutrality, while leading their audience towards a negative conclusion about the subject. And there are thousands of them. Maybe tens of thousands. Political pundits. Comedians. Fashion bloggers. Entertainment news. Even gun guys. Why are they doing this? It's not organic. They're not simply doing it because they feel so strongly about it. They're part of a large, international propaganda apparatus. They are paid to do it. In addition to being able to influence their own audiences, collectively they are able to influence the world of influencers. Whether its algorithms, bots, or armies of foreign users, the propagandist influencers are able to create the perception that their propaganda content works well to grow their audience and help them get paid. Other influencers who aren't even paid by the propaganda apparatus see this, and they give it a try. They see success. Their numbers go up. They keep doing it. More see it and do the same. They may never even get paid directly by the apparatus, but have essentially become captured by it. Some of these folks can have large audiences, but many have tiny audiences, which means they can reach all kinds of very niche groups, and their "small time" nature makes the ideas they spread seem all the more natural and organic. You may think your thoughts, ideas, opinions, and beliefs are organic and spontaneous, but many of them are not. Post of them are probably not. It's possible that none of them are. If you're not good at spotting propaganda, fake news, AI (photos, videos, and text), and outright lies already, then you're going to have a hard time figuring it out in the future. This is probably not something I can help you fix with a few paragraphs on X, but nevertheless, I'd like to point out a few things to help: 1) Short-form videos on your feed are one of the most effective propaganda mediums. Incredibly powerful propaganda can be inserted in a 30-second video from a person that you have literally never seen or heard of before, but you innately trust because they speak with confidence and sincerity. The same idea gets repeated and re-emphasized by other videos, and suddenly it feels like "everyone" is saying the same thing. It feels like there is consensus, and "everyone knows it." The idea is now in your head, and you can't even remember where you heard it. TAKEAWAY: Do not trust things you learn from these videos, and better yet, try not to watch them at all. 2) KNOW THEM BY HOW THEY CIRCLE THEIR WAGONS - I have to credit @ConceptualJames for repeating this one all the time. When one of the propagandists says or does something objectively atrocious, the other propagandists will start defending them. Pay attention to who those people are. Recognize it's not spontaneous. These people have mutual interests, and they protect those interest by protecting each other. When you know WHO the propagandists are, it protects you because you know they are not credible. If you listen to their messaging, and then pay attention to who else is saying the same thing, now you're recognizing other propagandists. This requires paying attention. If you don't have the ability to sort through this stuff on social media, then maybe you shouldn't be on social media. 3) Don't be surprised when people you thought you trusted turn out to be compromised. One big mistake a lot of people make is they give someone spouting nonsense a pass because they seemed good before, maybe even for years, maybe even decades. Tucker Carlson is a great example of this. Millions of Conservative Americans followed Tucker for years before he showed himself to be a tool of China, Russia, and Islam. I'm not saying that any and all loyalty is bad, or that you should never give anyone the benefit of the doubt. But if you start from the premise that people can change, or that they may not have been who you thought they were to begin with, you'll become more resilient to this particular problem. If you're not actively paying attention to the propaganda, who it works, and who is doing it, then it will work on you. Don't be arrogant about this. Don't assume you'll "just know." Social media has some great features about it. Wasson Watch has been able to leverage it to grow our brand AND to speak truth boldly and unapologetically. But it's a dangerous place. Tread carefully.

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Eric Navarro
Eric Navarro@ericnavarro·
@EWErickson With all due respect, you have no idea what you’re talking about.
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Erick Erickson
Erick Erickson@EWErickson·
To the extent the Trump Administration had no endgame, doing everything possible to destabilize the Iranian regime must be it, if not outright regime change. The President did not have to pick this fight, but he did. He grabbed a tiger by its tail and let go without defanging it or declawing it. Iran will attempt to maul us. They believe they won this war. They believe they have no reason to back down. ewerickson.substack.com/p/there-must-b…
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David D. Chapman
David D. Chapman@DavidD_Chapman·
Iran war death toll IRGC: 6,000 USA: 15 Kill Ratio is 400 to 1. General Westmoreland had wet dreams about kill ratios that high during the Vietnam War. Spare me your propaganda. America kicked Iran's teeth in
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