🥃🥴 【ェリー】SEKTE Pemuja KYO 🙇🏻‍♀️🙇🏻‍♀️

Large eruption at Dukono Volcano on Halmahera Island, Indonesia 🇮🇩 The ash column is estimated to have reached approximately 4,000 meters above the summit. (03.04.2026)

Diamankan atau diamankan?

⛔️Turkish MP opposed to Erdogan: “The pilots who bomb Gaza were trained in Konya, and the fuel of Israeli planes is sent from the Iskenderun, and the food of the Israeli soldiers is sent from Alanya,their water comes from Manafgat. Shame on you Erdogan”

US PILOT ‘RESCUE’ OP COST: — 2 MC-130 aircraft ($100 MILLION+ EACH) ‘intentionally DESTROYED’ — 4 MH-6 Little Bird helicopters Iran drops NEW WRECKAGE IMAGES

They're right for Japan, Korea, and Singapore. Those guys source 75% of refined products from the Persian Gulf. Hormuz closes, they bleed. But Indonesia is a different story entirely. Yes, Indonesia imports refined products. Pertamina's refining capacity doesn't fully cover domestic demand, so Pertalite and Solar get bridged through imports. The Hormuz shock hits that. Real exposure. What makes Indonesia different is this. Indonesia's actual risk from this isn't supply. It's fiscal. If oil prices spike because Hormuz stays closed, the government's subsidy bill for Pertalite and Solar expands. Wider deficit, rupiah pressure. That's the bear case for Indonesia, and even that's manageable. The bull case is what nobody is talking about. Indonesia runs B40 right now. 40% of every liter of diesel consumed domestically is palm oil biodiesel, not petroleum. When oil spikes, the incentive to push toward B50 or B55 gets stronger overnight. Import volume drops. Indonesia self-hedges using its own CPO supply. No other country in Asia has this. Not Korea, not Japan, not Singapore. Then there's coal. When Hormuz disrupts LNG and oil flows into Asia, the fastest lever available to power generators in Japan, Korea, and India is gas to coal switching. Indonesia is the world's largest seaborne thermal coal exporter. ADARO, ITMG, PTBA, BUMI don't suffer from this scenario. Export volumes go up. Realized prices go up. Royalty revenue to the government goes up. Same logic on LNG. Indonesia exports from Bontang and Tangguh. When Middle Eastern supply gets disrupted, the spot premium on non Gulf LNG widens. Indonesian cargoes price up. Same logic on CPO. High oil equals strong biodiesel demand globally equals strong CPO prices. Indonesia and Malaysia control 85% of global supply. You see, Indonesia pays more for refined product imports. Fiscal subsidy pressure rises. Rupiah is a watch item. Those are real negatives. But Indonesia earns more on coal exports, earns more on LNG spot, earns more on CPO, and reduces net petroleum import volume through accelerated biodiesel blending. The terms of trade move in Indonesia's favor, not against it. The conventional take is "Indonesia is a net oil importer so oil shock is bad." The correct take is Indonesia is a net energy exporter in the commodities that directly substitute for disrupted Persian Gulf supply. A sustained Hormuz closure improves Indonesia's aggregate energy trade position, not deteriorates it. Happy Sunday and Happy Easter.

This low level of civility and intelligence shown by a leader of a country is regrettable; the shameful fervor with which intentions to commit war crimes are repeated is staggering; and the fact that the Divine is invoked regardless of ill intentions clearly exposes deep fanaticism. Apologies for sharing this language.