Evans Chow

@darrencao2024 还是很贵，并且未来高增长的天花板可见

今天Palantir的财报结果，打破了空头的所有核心论据——皮包公司、政府合同依赖、商业化进度缓慢——今晚被逐一击碎。 美国商业ARR翻倍不是运气，是AIP平台真实的企业采购转化。下一个问题是：市场会给这份成绩单什么样的估值重定价？ 随着eps预期被打破，以及全面上调全年指引，我预计两周之内，会有一波分析师上调目标价格。

@thestockwhale but MRVL has canceled the contract，does it have any influence on its development？

Goldman Sachs JUST announced: "AI optics industry will 10X until 2028." (April 2026 AI Optical Report) If you want to be a millionaire in 2 years, buy these stocks on the next 10% dip: 1. Poet Technologies $POET 2. AXT Inc. $AXTI 3. Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI 4. Lumentum Holdings $LITE 5. Coherent $COHR 6. MACOM $MTSI All my buy and sell signals in Discord @ stockwhale.vip.

@xiaomustock 4.23号发财报

海力士每年的一季度财报时间点大概在4.28号，也就是下周三左右公布。 市场绝对会被它的利润震撼到。 我猜单季度250亿美金+

@laowu3677 我的也是，更新了也卡

我真的卡爆了 快连你怎么回事！！！ 有小伙伴推荐一个实用的VPN吗？ 注意：千万不要去推广VPN 要吃牢饭的家人们 注册量到位 就按头

@Balder13946731 ORCL能跟他们比吗？开什么玩笑，MU未来一年千亿级美金利润的量。

内存股 $MU $SNDK $EWY 他们就是处于消息面的风暴中心，类似于之前的 $NFLX $ORCL 这里面的水究竟有多深，没有人清楚。 除非出现消息面的根本反转或者大家淡忘了这些事情，否则这样的风暴中心没有人可以知道准确底部。 你们想想，一年翻5-10倍的股票，里面的资本收益是不可能兑现的，短期内的筹码终究是有很多泡沫的。

@EhrmantrautCap_ Waiting for the first-quarter financial report. If net profit is above $20 billion, The gross will hit $100 billion natually.

@evans4170 Yup, absolute beast company!

The memory sector is no longer just a "commodity cycle", it has evolved into a structural AI Infrastructure Supercycle.🚀 - The HBM Squeeze: HBM4 production is ramping, but yields remain the bottleneck. Every wafer allocated to HBM is a wafer taken away from DDR5/LPDDR5, causing prices for standard server and mobile RAM to skyrocket (+60% YoY). - Capex Discipline: Despite record profits, the "Big 3" are focusing on advanced nodes ($1\gamma$) rather than flooding the market with legacy capacity. - The "Vera Rubin" Wave: NVIDIA’s next-gen architecture is driving a 70% increase in HBM content per GPU, effectively de-risking the 2027 demand profile. - The eSSD Squeeze: AI training doesn't just need compute; it needs capacity to store the massive datasets (Data Lakes). The transition from legacy HDDs to high-capacity Enterprise SSDs (64TB, 128TB) is accelerating. - The "Total Memory" Margin Expansion: This isn't just a DRAM party. NAND, previously a low-margin commodity, is now delivering 60%+ gross margins for the top tier producers. Despite all this, the valuations are staggering: $MU - 4.35x FY2027 earnings $SNDK - 7.95x FY2027 earnings SK Hynix - 4.40x FY2027 earnings Samsung - 6.60x FY2027 earnings The market is still treating it like a regular memory upcycle, and expects a massive cliff near 2027/2028. However, this is not a typical memory upcycle. We are in the memory supercycle, powered by the AI infrastructure buildout that will last several years atleast. During the period, the supply/demand asymmetry will persist and these 4 companies are at the forefront of the memory supercycle. 🚀 $SNDK $MU $EWY

@OmerCheeema SK Hynix is likely to get $100 B net profit this year. So its forward P/E is below 4.

@Stephen19323685 @tig88411109 一看就是不具备发展的眼光看问题，这类人是活在过去的认知，吃了之前的时代红利而已。

@tig88411109 还是拿着过去的知识做新题，随着L4自动驾驶和人型机器人的发展内存的需求会迎来第二增长点 更不用说未来全民AI agent的时代了

回顾45年美光历史，互联网泡沫和Windows 95热潮时期的峰值水平，股价偏离200日均线，往往预示着超过70%回调。 这么高的超越毒品的利润率一定会激发资本主义原创性，从架构设计/替代设计/包括新进入竞争都会惨烈，那么如何评估正确的价值。 如果看26年EPS，预期已经在50-75这个水准，那么现在价格只有6/7倍PE这个估值。即便之前今年涨半导体第一，是不是太便宜了。ALL IN？ 错❌。不能用一时高潮衡量你平均的快乐。周期股是用PB和PS来估值的，现在用PE已经开始让存储芯片走向新的范式的变化，开始进入一个AI基础设施的领域，而不是同质化的“大宗商品”看天吃饭。 我之前设计一个新的估值思路，出去极端的这种好天气，在正常长期的AI时代下，合理的年收入/利润率乘以合理PE，算法👇，看评论article 这个数据是之前季报之前的，最新的订阅者分享😑

@787Grape @darrencao2024 你判断一下海力士今年的利润怎么样

纯傻逼。 1/3 海力士HBM的营收 依靠dram 疯狂涨价而已 1.5倍海力士的市值， 超过了asml这样的垄断者。 阿三就是吹牛逼而已。 btw， 谁还不知道他就是靠多重曝光duv 拿到的HBM。 从而提高毛利率 ， 另外海力士5年折旧EUV 到了美光就是10年折旧。 一个mba为主的吹牛逼公司， 依靠美股的流动性溢价维持不住的。 we'll see

最近美光MU CEO Mehrotra接受CNBC专访，三句话怼空头： 一、Non-HBM DRAM的利润率，今天就已经高于HBM。整个产品线全面开花，不是只靠HBM撑场子。 二、有意义的供应放量最早2028年才开始启动。盖fab、建洁净室，全是长周期事。供需缺口在相当长时间内不会消失。 三、Q1→Q2营收跳升近百亿美元。Q2→Q3再跳近百亿。这不是线性增长，是加速。 CEO原话：「我看不到供应在相当长一段时间内追上需求。」 MU最大的风险就是周期股，然而CEO明确告诉你，直到2028年供给才能上来 但依然赶不上需求量。

@darrencao2024 已经从周期跳出来，若HBM还属于周期的定义的话，那CPO，光模块这些都是周期。

@flyarcher @adamgoldstein13 @ashleevance @reindsummit too many shows...

Archer Founder & CEO, @adamgoldstein13, and @ashleevance will take the stage together for a fireside chat about defense, manufacturing and more at @reindsummit this Thursday at 1:30pm ET. Follow along for updates.

@mind1nvestor Joby is a better choice.

$ACHR Swing Trade Idea A massive daily wedge is forming. Price just tested and held the 8 & 21 EMA, a sign of building upward momentum. Key level: $11 Needs to break and hold with either a clean retest or strong daily volume. If $11 breaks, $15 is on the table.

@Joane_Halbouty it's overrated.

@adamgoldstein13 It seems that Archer is falling behind Joby, and what you talk about on X can't let the stock go up.

No matter where you stand on the BBB, it’s a clear win for aviation... - $12.5B to modernize Air Traffic Control. This is long overdue and critical to making our skies safer and ready for higher traffic volumes. - $150B in defense funding. Undoubtedly a major boost for aerospace innovation as the U.S. moves into the next era of military tech and deterrence. Aviation’s next chapter is being built right now and this is a major step forward.

@ChrisWaggoner2 @flyarcher so it's a lie?