@theo It’s the classic “Er-Actually we have morals” argument if you have no moat. Couldn’t expect anything else from a German with Ukraine Flag in bio.
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LevTrigger
426 posts
LevTrigger
@evansb45
Working with GPUs. Perfektion ist der Feind des Fortschritts. Memes are the DNA of the soul. Trust the government until your pronoun is was/were.
Katılım Nisan 2020
150 Takip Edilen24 Takipçiler
Anybody who is from the EU and needs a 48GB 4090? I may get one from China.
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@MinimalCompany Limited stock. Order now while devices are still available.
minimalcompany.com
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If you want to get information on stocks in Japan that no one else has. Head to the soapland and get a massage from a girl. While she is rubbing, talk her up and build a relationship. After a few weeks she will tell you all sorts of things from businessmen who attend the land of the soap. I allocate 15% of my research budget to soapland. It pays for itself many times over. Wife doesn’t care as long as I buy her Mikimoto pearls every so often.
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@teewurscht Solchen Gestalten gibst du am besten eine Adresse die am Arsch der Welt liegt aber noch in der gleichen PLZ. Dann wissen die wenigstens, wie es anfühlt, wenn die Zeit anderer verschwendet wird und du lachst dir ins Fäustchen.
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He said he needed it to contact me back. BRUDER DU HAST MEINE NUMMER
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Just reported smoking minors in a German metro station city Centre to the police hotline and they didn’t take me seriously. Told them exactly where they are and the only thing they were interested in was my name.
What do you think is the first thing tourists see? @Polizei_Ffm
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Had a Jane Street interview in 2013 that still bothers me.
It was my 6th round. Final interview. The guy walks in carrying no laptop, no notebook, just a cold brew and what I later realized was a single IKEA tea candle.
He writes on the whiteboard:
food: $200
rent: $800
utilities: $150
candles: $3,600
family: dying
Then he turns around and says, “Optimize.”
I laughed because I thought it was a culture-fit bit. He did not laugh.
So I said, “Well, obviously you spend less on candles.”
He says, “Assume candles are non-discretionary.”
Okay.
I start building a model. Basic constraint satisfaction. Family survival as a soft penalty. Candles as a state variable. Maybe there’s an arbitrage where you buy wholesale paraffin and convert the $3,600 line item into inventory.
He stops me.
“You’re thinking like a consultant.”
That’s when I knew I was in trouble.
He says, “Give me a bid-ask on family dying.”
I say, “What?”
He says, “You’re long candles, short family. Where do you make markets?”
I try to recover. I say the real issue is liquidity: rent and utilities are fixed, food is elastic, candles are emotionally inelastic. Therefore the optimal strategy is to securitize future candle enjoyment and borrow against it.
He nods for the first time.
Then he asks, “What time do you sell the candles?”
I say, “Whenever the market is liquid?”
He says, “Be more specific.”
I say, “Uh… 10 a.m. Eastern?”
For the first time, he smiles.
He goes, “Every day?”
I say, “Every day.”
He says, “In size?”
I say, “In size.”
He says, “And what do we call that?”
I say, “Market manipulation?”
The room gets very quiet.
He looks disappointed and writes something down.
“No. We call it providing liquidity to candle ETFs during the U.S. cash open.”
I try to save it. “Right. Of course. The family isn’t dying because we underfunded them. They’re just experiencing temporary price discovery.”
He nods again.
Then he points back at the board.
I had missed it. The utility bill was $150, but candles provide light. You can zero out utilities.
I update the budget:
food: $200
rent: $800
utilities: $0
candles: $3,750
family: still dying, but now in a more capital-efficient way
He says, “How confident are you?”
I say, “0.95.”
He smiles and circles candles.
“0.95 huh?”
Then he asks me to estimate how many leveraged longs get liquidated if we dump $3,750 of candles at 10:00:01 every morning for 90 consecutive trading days.
Needless to say I did not get the offer.
Deedy@deedydas
Jane Street made ~$40B in 2025 with 3,500 employees, a ~2x from the year before. At ~65-70% profit margin, that's $8M profit / employee, the highest for a 1000+ ppl company. High-frequency trading continues to be the most efficient money making engine. I want to share an old story about my Jane Street interview in 2014. Jane Street was known for hiring a lot of math, physics and CS olympiad winners from top universities and putting them through many rounds - including, for trading roles, a gauntlet of mental math. It was my 6th interview and my final round and I recall being asked "What is the next day after today in DD/MM/YYYY where all the digits are unique?" They'd toy with you and say "You can use a pencil and paper, if you want" but you knew that was an instant no. Painstakingly and as quickly as I could, I came to an answer. "How confident are you that this is correct on a 0-1 probability scale?" the interviewer said. "0.95", I blurted out, not fully knowing how to answer that. "Are you sure?" After thinking harder for a few more seconds, I realized I could've flipped the digits around to get a closer date. I gave the interviewer my answer. It was correct. "0.95 huh?" he chuckled. That's when I knew I failed. Note: fwiw, other companies that come close in efficiency are - Tether ($90M+ profit/emp) - Hyperliquid ($80M+ profit/emp) and on revenue: - Valve ($50M/emp) - OnlyFans ($37M/emp) - Craigslist ($14M/emp) - Anthropic ($12M/emp, run rate) - OpenAI ($8M/emp, run rate) For comparison, Nvidia is very efficient at scale and is $4.4M/emp.
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@Ren_aramb Good analysis. That’s exactly the reason I went big on $SIVE. All you have to look at is the P/E of the peer group.
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I get asked frequently : am I too late to invest in photonics after they have already run?
Short answer: no. But you’re not early either. Depends on which group.
When I think about timing in any sector I break it into 4 groups:
Disruptors – speculative, no practical application at scale yet, but could be part of a future architecture. Think $ALMU with quantum dot lasers on silicon. Incredible technology. Still pre-revenue at scale. May never see mass adoption. May change the game entirely.
Early Adopters – the technology exists, the thesis is forming, but execution risk is real. This is the highest risk/reward group. $SIVE is here. All the upside in the world but still has to execute at scale. That’s why regardless of it being up 763% in a year, it is still early.
Mainstream – the thesis has played out, earnings confirm the demand is real and growing. This group has executed to a point but if it keeps executing it will keep going higher, just at a lower speed. $LITE is here. Everyone knows the story. The risk is lower, the ceiling is lower, but there’s still upside.
Laggards – the best days are behind it. Growth is no longer accelerating, it’s declining. Think of Peloton $PTON. Once at $100, now at $5. Unless we enter another lockdown, that former glory is gone.
This is obviously an oversimplification.
External forces can make a company obsolete overnight regardless of what stage it’s in.
So coming back to photonics – forget how much the price has moved. Think about how much they’ve actually executed vs. how much is still ahead:
$LITE – up 1,350% in 1 year
Executing well, still has growth ahead. The speed just won’t be what it was. You’re a little late here.
$AAOI – up 1,140% in 1 year
Strong backlog, run hard the last 2 months. If they deliver, they keep going. If they miss, the market punishes them. You’re on time here.
$SIVE – up 763% in 1 year
Have executed about 1/10 of what they have in store. If they delay or miss, it gets hit hard since so much upside is already priced in. You’re still early here.
If all companies execute within this supercycle, in 3 years $SIVE should capture more upside than $AAOI, which should should capture more upside than $LITE. Percentage-wise.
Hope that helps.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some: Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start). Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle: -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first I did a thesis post on mentioning all four of them as the largest beneficiaries (all are up 500-1000% 1Y) -> $AAOI, $JBL and others types of names are benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (eg. 1.6T pluggable) -> $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are others future gens eg. CPO (what I'm focusing on now) -> VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU and others are likely going to be future gens (quantum dot, different packaging types, etc) if you fast forward 4 years. Of course, $LITE does everything. $AXTI will be used for everything. But the amount of pure play exposure for each architectural shift in each mini supercycle is different. For example, inp usage with quantum dot is still there, but less used. Or DFB laser arrays for CPO instead of EML. There's probably still 50%+ with $LITE and $COHR. And you're a little on the "late" side of things. But you're extremely early to new architecture generations. What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free. Before institutions figure out sooner or later by paying $20k for equity research reports.
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4) The thermal paste holds firm and true,
2 fans spin soft, the VRAM breaks through.
Stack the build to word,
That, my friend, is something heard
Not often in this rented age:
An agent running on its own stage.
No timeout, no rate limit wall,
Just the terminal, prompt and all.
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3) One routes the trade, one codes the build,
One plans the trip, one parses the wild.
They share a vault, they share a mind,
No corporate eye, no border line.
The context window stretches wide,
With nothing to hide and nothing to feign.
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1)The servers sleep, the cloud goes dark,
But in a rack there lights a spark.
An RTX 3090 wakes from rest,
A mind you built, a mind you test.
No API call, no monthly fee,
No engineer in California sees
The thoughts you feed the weights tonight,
The tokens rolling warm and bright.
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@mkfilko @aleabitoreddit We’re definitely early. Wait until it’s on nasdaq then Cramer can finally mention it
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$SIVE
Would you say we are early to $SIVE?
This is anecdotal evidence, but none of my friends know about it. At the same time, because of how X can become an echo chamber, I’m seeing this ticker pop up everyday. @aleabitoreddit has 200k+ followers, so that’s a sizable reach, institutions are probably following his account as well.
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@htrowii Buy this one then swap in an arm board once they are good enough
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do i pull the trigger on this or wait for a framework ARM 😭😭😭
Framework@FrameworkPuter
Our biggest breakthrough in efficiency yet, the Framework Laptop 13 Pro with 20 hours of battery life. In Graphite. Linux-first with options for Ubuntu pre-installed. Featuring Intel® Core™ Ultra Series 3 processors, LPCAMM2 Memory, a new haptic touchpad, and a touchscreen display. Pre-orders for the Framework Laptop 13 Pro open now: frame.work
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Can someone point me the most effective way to acquire implied volatility data? Which databroker do you recommend? So far I have managed to build some setups on free data but this aint it son. I need some hard facts.
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@WydArianaX "My powers have doubled since the last time we met, Count"
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LevTrigger retweetledi
Trying out the new Qwen3.6 MoEs on my RTX 3090 setup. The results are completely usable for any daily tasks. Around 70 tok/s with 15 layers offloaded to RAM. I tuned the llama-server cmd. Would probably be even with DDR5 RAM
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