experquisite retweetledi
1/ Karpathy just described the hard ceiling on trillion-dollar autonomous systems as a throwaway caveat about his overnight hyperparameter script (@NoPriorsPod) — and went back to tuning his learning rate...
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experquisite
16.4K posts
President Trump over the last 36 hours:
Friday, 3:40 PM ET: "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran."
Friday, 5:15 PM ET: The US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran.
Today, 2:00 PM ET: Axios reports Trump is planning "peace talks."
Now: "If Iran doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours the US will obliterate Iran's power plants."
What's happening behind the scenes?
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@bookdepth @alpha_convert My next favorite IMAX, personally, is Kips Bay. Not particularly big, but the sound seems well calibrated, it’s not busy, and there are no bed bugs (that I have heard).
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@alpha_convert Next best in the city is the American museum of natural history but it's only 40ft high vs the Lincoln center 75.6ft... depending on your level of commitment to the bit the New Rochelle imax is next best in the state at 59.5ft
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experquisite retweetledi
People don't hate math; they hate the feeling of being lost. They hate the compounded debt of unlearned prerequisites.
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@alpha_convert @bookdepth What kind of job doesn’t let you go see a movie at 3pm that’s crazy
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@ExPostGigaChad Also, what has he attached to those horses lol.
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@ExPostGigaChad That dude has clearly never had to mow acres of lawn
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I still haven’t quite gotten over the fact that one of the US government’s responses to its own war on Iran was to lift its own sanctions on Iran.
Really remarkable.
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@GRoditiD This seems correct. For problems where the operators’ time is very valuable or the problem is very hard but profitable, margins will be high. Everyone else races to the bottom.
There might also be room for luxury/status intelligence.
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you can either sell something so good nobody cares about the price or something 90% as good at 60% of the price.
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the more and more i use AI coding tools the more and more i feel like amazon is going to win it by serving up commodity models on commodity hardware at commodity prices without all the sunk costs everyone else is stacking. plus they already have the infra expertise figured out
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experquisite retweetledi
The heat ridge out west is ridiculous in its magnitude and scale. Pretty much every station in Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona is reporting a record high temperature for the month of March, with daily records all the way to the Mississippi River.
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@iaindunning Autoresearch is definitely a dead end, don’t bother
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It's very easy to dunk on people "autoresearching trading strategies" (horribly overfit) but I feel this lack of understanding of scientific processes is the same failing that leads to other manifestations like "autoresearching the fastest GPU kernel ever" (produces wrong result)
Manhattan, NY 🇺🇸 English
All this "auto research" stuff is cool, has high potential (I've been spending time automating end-to-end low-hanging-fruit research), but I do feel like if you do not have a good grasp of the scientific method and the philosophy of science, you're gonna have a bad time
Manhattan, NY 🇺🇸 English
@QuiteMidlife @sdav1986 Top NY tax bracket doesn’t kick in until $25mm/year, which always impresses my European friends.
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don’t you pay all in 50% in many parts of the US too (and you pay for healthcare on top)?
Not Jerome Powell@alifarhat79
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@DeepDishEnjoyer @alexandrascaggs I would simply profit from this arb with cash & carry
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ngl the Brent-WTI spread really is starting to weird me out a little
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experquisite retweetledi
In Phoenix, Arizona, temperatures could reach an unbelievable 107°F (+42°C) on Friday. If that verifies, it would break the record for the earliest occurrence of 107°F since records began in 1895, pulverising the previous record by a whopping 44 days.
This is totally bonkers.
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experquisite retweetledi
Here’s the big take on fertilizer shortage we should all be reading
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
BREAKING: While the world debates oil prices and war strategy, the actual crisis is unfolding in silence. The molecules that produce half the planet’s food are physically trapped behind a war zone. And the biological window to apply them closes in weeks. Not months. Weeks. This is not a drill. Roughly one-third of all seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz according to UNCTAD. Nearly 49% of globally traded urea is tied to conflict-exposed exporters. Nearly half of global sulfur trade, the chemical without which phosphate fertilizer cannot be processed anywhere on Earth, is Gulf-dependent. Transit has collapsed 97%. There is no alternative route. There is no strategic fertilizer reserve anywhere on Earth. There is no Plan B. Right now, as you read this: Bangladesh has shut five of six urea factories. Boro rice season, which produces over half the country’s grain, is underway with no domestic nitrogen supply. India is operating fertilizer plants at 60% capacity and has formally asked China for emergency urea. China said nothing and banned its own phosphate exports through August. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, faces $28 billion in debt repayments while the bread subsidy feeding 69 million people hemorrhages money at prices it never budgeted for. Sudan, already in confirmed famine, sources 54% of its fertilizer from the Gulf. WFP shipping now takes 25 extra days rerouting around the war zone. Australia imports virtually all its urea, two-thirds from the Gulf, and its entire heavy trucking fleet runs on AdBlue made from the same urea that is not arriving. No urea, no AdBlue, no freight, no groceries on shelves in Sydney. 318 million people were at crisis-level hunger BEFORE February 28. The number that should haunt every policymaker on Earth: the yield response to nitrogen is not linear. It is quadratic. In wealthy countries that over-apply fertilizer, a 15% reduction costs maybe 3% of yield. In the Global South where farmers already apply one-seventh the global average, the same reduction pushes crops off a biophysical cliff where production does not decline. It collapses. Sri Lanka proved this in 2021. One season without synthetic fertilizer. Rice output collapsed 40%. Government fell. Now multiply Sri Lanka across thirty countries simultaneously. During a potential El Nino that Skymet says carries a 60% chance of below-normal Indian monsoon. While 51% of US corn-growing areas are already in drought. While Australia’s root-zone soil moisture sits in the lowest 10% since 1911. While corn farmers are abandoning nitrogen-intensive planting because they cannot afford $900-per-ton ammonia against $4.50 corn. While the Fed is trapped at 3% core PCE with no room to cut and food inflation about to surge through every grocery aisle in America six months from now. Nobody is talking about this. CNBC leads with oil. Bloomberg leads with equities. The Pentagon leads with strike counts. But the actual weapon of mass destruction in this conflict is not a missile. It is a calendar. The Corn Belt needs nitrogen by mid-April. India needs to prep Kharif by May. Australia needs urea by June. Miss those windows and no subsequent intervention reverses the yield loss. The food is not decided by diplomats in six months. It is decided by soil chemistry in the next six weeks. The prices hit your table by Christmas. Both sides rejected ceasefire talks this week. The world spent fifty years preparing for an oil shock. It spent zero years preparing for a fertilizer shock. Half of humanity eats because of a single industrial process that runs on natural gas from the Persian Gulf, exits through 21 miles of water that are currently mined, uninsured, and unescorted. The planting window does not care about your geopolitics. It is closing. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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experquisite retweetledi
1/ Denmark was reportedly preparing for full-scale war with the US over Greenland in January, with military support from France, Germany, and Nordic nations. Elite troops and F-35 jets with live ammunition were sent, and runways were to be blown up to prevent an invasion. ⬇️
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I don't know what's worse, the AI-written quant slop, the "steath" prop firm you allegedly worked at for two years, or the #OpenToWork ribbon around your black polyester suit
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@LacertaXG1 @ONAN_OUS yeah codex 5.4 max etc are actually very good at this sort of thing. but they don't have the data. bloomberg's moat is IB and all the swap pricing the dealers donate etc.
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I want to start a bit where I ask every person that claims they built a new BBG whether they have a fixed income OMS or a CDS tranche pricer
coffeeshop george@coffeshopgeorge
@BluthCapital dude they literally built a new Bloomberg on perplexity it has orange ticker symbols, black background, erythang but with there is more just launched perplexity computer which can do things like this:
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