fawwest

@p_ferragu So bullish for Tesla. Just a matter of when.

Model 3 lease today, $299 per month. FSD: $100. Assuming a prudent 8% profit margin on the former (base model), FSD multiplies profits by 5x, off the bat. FSD being unmatched, exceptionally high value and terminally addictive, it will drive sustained market share gains and retention. As we are still under 3%. Count another 5x potential. Then move the model to cybercab. From $0.35 revenue for Tesla per mile to $1, contribution to profits from 13 cents to 65, or another 5x. Conclusion. Those putting a multiple on Tesla based on auto compares should not forget they may need to multiply value by 5x, 3 times, i.e. by up to 125x. Have a good weekend!

@CyberSolarX @CernBasher @grant_melson @TeslaBoomerMama Don’t forget law of large numbers. A merged company at $3-5T market cap will take much longer to go higher. See NVDA for example. NVDA keeps getting cheaper bc $5T market cap is record highs. A Tesla at 1T market cap is faster to go 3T rather than a merged co at 5T to 10T

@CernBasher @grant_melson @TeslaBoomerMama Cern, I've heard you say the the change of $tsla stock should barely move bc of simple 6-12 month delays of robotaxi due to the present value of cash flows of robotaxi being so huge in the future (3-10 years down the road). Why do you say this but also support near term merger?

Tesla and SpaceX - Should They Merge? I'm responding to @grant_melson post and his discussion with @TeslaBoomerMama - bringing it here so that more people see it and can join in on the discussion. Both companies have several "step changes" in their pipeline. For Tesla it's Robotaxi, then Optimus and perhaps Digital Optimus (btw, none of which are fully featured without Grok/Xai, and Starlink in many situations). Tesla is joined at the hip with SpaceX already. For SpaceX it's Starlink (a far bigger and more immediate opportunity than most think - just ask @aaronburnett) and Starship (SpaceX's "Robotaxi"). The cross pollination between the two companies is too numerous to name here. Then they jointly benefit from TERAFAB and the scaling that it allows - a huge quantity of chips for Optimus and for orbital data centers. If this doesn't happen Tesla will be severely chip and inference compute constrained. Only investors who are focused on the short-term worry about the potential short-term dilution that merging with SpaceX brings. The implicit assumption with this line of thinking is that SpaceX is overvalued. What happens if it's not? What happens if SpaceX is really worth a few trillion more? Again, listen to @aaronburnett, @TeslaLarry and @pbeisel. What happens if Robotaxi adds a trillion to Tesla's valuation, but SpaceX gains two trillion in the meantime? Or some other amount, but where SpaceX gains more. The problem with valuation arguments is that they are subjective. There are people that feel Tesla is massively undervalued (I put myself in that camp) and others think that SpaceX is more valuable. Reasonable people can disagree on valuation. That said, once SpaceX is a public company (and the index additions and lock-ups are behind us), then at least we will have an apples-to-apples valuation comparison - as both will be valued in the public market on the same terms. However, in my view, investors who are focused on the long-term will welcome a merger - as the opportunity for the combined company is greater than two separate entities. Just look at what Elon said this week on the Q1 earnings call when asked about TERAFAB - the challenges of making sure both sets of shareholders is slowing things down - it's a clear frustration for him. It's a massive unforced error to tie Elon's hands. Why put unnecessary hurdles in front of him in the name of protecting shareholders? These companies should merge - and probably sooner than later. Let the man build unencumbered! And for those that might think that Elon is somehow slow rolling Robotaxi so that SpaceX can acquire the company on the cheap - if you don't believe that Elon always acts in your best interests (as he's required to do), you should sell your Tesla stock and move on to another company/CEO that you trust.

@CernBasher @grant_melson @TeslaBoomerMama The fact SpaceX stock moved from 300b to 1.75T in a year has significant re-rating already while Tesla is still awaiting re-rating. There should be premium on Tesla’s end once Robotaxi subscriptions catch up to Starlink.

@flntwd @smdcapital @DanBTC916 Can’t Elon sell SpaceX shares and buy Tesla shares to increase his control? Best case scenario for Tesla shareholders is re-rating in next two years. Tesla offers SpaceX a premium.

This is a long write-up but worth the read for Tesla investors who are interested in the prospect of a Tesla / SpaceX merger. @smdcapital @DanBTC916 As a former big law M&A attorney, I have been thinking about this potential transaction for many months now, trying to figure out how it would work, what the timing would be, mechanics, structure, etc. With the recent decline in TSLA stock and negative sentiment following last week’s call, many Tesla bulls (I won’t name names) are now working overtime to convince followers that a near-term merger following SpaceX’s IPO is the right path forward. Indeed, Elon seemed to be dropping some hints with his commentary about Terafab, particularly the inherent conflicts and the difficulty in parsing out rights and responsibilities between each company. And I do think Elon has had this thought in the back of his mind for the past few years, seeing the combination of his companies under a single structure as inevitable. I also think, through his actions and inactions (delays, missed deadlines, moving goal posts, divisiveness, politics, lack of enthusiasm on quarterly calls, etc.), he has kept the TSLA share price suppressed with that ultimate goal in mind. Occam’s razor. So here are the mechanics. SpaceX is expected to IPO at a $1.75-$2.0T valuation. It will have a dual-class share structure, where Elon retains the voting shares. Tesla has a single class share structure where each share has both voting and economic interests. For a near-term merger to be viable, Elon has to ensure SpaceX maintains or exceeds its IPO valuation, and Tesla valuation stays at or below current levels. Why? It is almost guaranteed that SpaceX would be the surviving entity in a merger scenario, so Elon can maintain the dual-class share structure and thus, maintain majority voting control. It is not legally possible to implement this type of structure at Tesla post-IPO, so the only way to keep it is if SpaceX is the surviving entity. And in order to convince Tesla shareholders to give up their voting rights in exchange for non-voting, economic shares in SpaceX (which is how such deals are commonly structured), SpaceX will have to offer a premium to Tesla holders — precedent is in the range of 20-40%. If Tesla is trading at a similar valuation to SpaceX, e.g., $2.0 trillion, and SpaceX has to pay a 20-40% premium to entice Tesla shareholders to approve the deal and give up their voting rights, then SpaceX shareholders would be diluted and are less likely to approve the transaction. If SpaceX is trading at $2.0 trillion and TSLA at its current $1.4 trillion market cap ($375/share), SpaceX can offer a 40% premium ($2.0 trillion valuation, $525/share, top-end of precedent) and avoid dilution. TSLA shareholders would almost certainly approve such an offer in light of current sentiment and Elon’s recent guidance (or lack thereof). Keeping the TSLA share price suppressed is the only way any near-term merger is viable in my opinion. I understand why Elon wants to combine the companies. It would significantly simplify governance and streamline his workload. And I ultimately think a combination of the two companies in the future makes sense. But the reality is, we have waited patiently for years now (with the stock trading lower today than it traded 5 years ago!), and we are finally on the cusp of a significant re-rating once robotaxi is scaled and Optimus goes into volume production. As a Tesla shareholder, I would prefer to consider a merger with SpaceX after the re-rating, when Tesla is trading at a much higher valuation. Why give it up now in the 11th hour when we’ve waited this long already? At the end of the day, what’s good for Elon isn’t necessarily good for Tesla shareholders.

@AIDRIVR What?? This looks like LA

@DanBTC916 This is the biggest bull piece

Great to see $TSLA disclose Active FSD Subscriptions. Looks like the been steadily growing, now at 1.28m FSD Subscriptions. Margin booster.

@AuclairsDad no tesla?

@tesla2moon @robotaxi Does this mean unsupervised is expanding if supervised is being eliminated?

오스틴 로보택시가 어제부터 무인택시만 운영중임. 아직 무인택시 지오펜싱은 확장하지 않고 그대로 유지하고 있음. 아무래도 오스틴도 휴스턴과 달라스처럼 앞으로 무인택시로만 서비스를 하기위한 작업이 진행중인것이 아닌가 추정됨. $TSLA @robotaxi

@TeslaBoomerMama @COTribe90 @FreedomFulfill @cyberbulls @TeslaLarry I honestly think Tesla can buy out SpaceX in 2 years. That would be best case scenario.

@fawwest @COTribe90 @FreedomFulfill @cyberbulls @TeslaLarry I don't

After further research and our discussions on the @cyberbulls with @TeslaLarry yesterday, I agree that this will very well be a Merger of Equals. BUT - in my opinion - it will not be at the then stock price, which is probably implying a lower market cap for Tesla than SpaceX. It will be a true "merger of equals" where the stock-for-stock exchange would be 50%/50%. Which implies an "implicit premium" for Tesla investors, and the hopefully then more agreeable institutional investors, as the Tesla shareholder vote will be an uphill battle. My best case "earliest" scenario is still an announcement in the short weeks after the IPO, with a "consumed merger" (and the S&P 500 replacement) targeted for summer 2027. From the announcement onwards, the two stocks will be in lockstep if the market gives this a high probability to go through. I will have more time at the beginning of next week to write an article on details, just wanted to leave this here for clarification. And yes, @TeslaLarry was (mostly) right 😏, let's hope that my scenario above is how it will play out.

@COTribe90 @FreedomFulfill @TeslaBoomerMama @cyberbulls @TeslaLarry Exactly. Not sure why TeslaBoomerMama continues to advocate for the merger when most folks aren’t aligned. Perhaps she has SpaceX shares.

@FreedomFulfill @TeslaBoomerMama @cyberbulls @TeslaLarry Yeah, we’ve done the hard part, watching the SP go sideways for 5 years while Tesla executes on the next growth phase. Why would we take a 17% premium now over letting the market fairly value robotaxi, Optimus, semi, etc.? If Tesla executes I see a doubling $400 to $800 ovr 5 yr

@BrianSequoia @TeslaBoomerMama @cyberbulls @TeslaLarry SpaceX needs to correct and go into a consolidation period for 5 years before the stock goes higher after going on an insane price appreciation run. Look what Tesla did in 2018-2020 and for 5-6 years flat performance. Why would any Tesla investor want that drag?

@TeslaBoomerMama @cyberbulls @TeslaLarry If the merger happens without a huge premium before the TSLA run up from Robotaxi, Optimus and other upside factors then shareholders will either not vote for it to happen or will file a massive class action lawsuit.

@BrianSequoia @TeslaBoomerMama @cyberbulls @TeslaLarry Brian is right. A company like Nvidia can offer to merge Tesla for way more. SpaceX is overpriced while Tesla is underpriced.

@CyberSolarX @WR4NYGov Prob bc Uber will invest $10B into automonous vehicles. Uber can either buy tesla stock which is unlikely or buy a fleet of cybercabs. Also the AI4 chip being able to run robotaxi without needing an upgrade.

@WR4NYGov My guesses are : 1) expansion of unsupervised robotaxi in Austin or another city in Texas 2) SpaceX docs giving Tesla a premium

Don’t ask me to explain it. But I ain’t complaining.

@LogicalThesis @DarkMiner This is my order except I get animal style to get the chopped onions and add whole grilled onions. Removing pickles, lettuce, & tomatoes keep the burger hot and tasty! You can get the veggies on side.

@DarkMiner Yes even though you ordered it wrong

Best $7 burger out there

@wraith_ damn.. this would be a freaking tough year for all if that happens

This pump in equities is essentially the Sept 30th - Oct 10th pump in Crypto That straight up no brakes rally from 108k to 125k Suck everyone back in and then bodybag them

@JCChristopher Damn throwing shade at @DavidMoss 😂

I see posts on X saying "robotaxi must not be ready to scale" and that "it's been disappointing", and that Elon and Tesla are moving the goalposts. I'm literally about to delete the X app off of my iPhone with this nonsense. Robotaxi is doing fine, and scaling at just the right speed. There is nothing disappointing about how this is going. We literally have 10 Teslas going around Austin right now with literally nothing but cameras and a computer chip. A year ago this was considered impossible, a "man will never fly" headline. Think about that for a minute. And now I am about to squash 89% of the posts here on X regarding how FSD is doing. I have done nearly 2,300 Uber rides, all 100% on FSD, and never once have I been asked to park, go into a parking garage, go through a drive through, go down a tight alley looking for crackheads to dart out behind a dumpster (and I do a lot of drives in neighborhoods with crackheads, hell some of them are my favorite passengers), asked to be in a specific lane on the road or them even care what lane you are in on the highway, etc. Tesla is being extremely cautious, judicious and deliberate with robotaxi. Bears and shorts are desperate for this thing to speed up, because that is their only hope. They know the tech is there, since there are 10 of them roaming around as we speak! They need something else. And anxious Tesla bulls are joining along. Fortunately, Tesla, and especially Elon, are just like Rhett Butler in Gone with the Wind, they just don't give a damn. Thank God!