Robert Younger

Fair old night!

New Expected Scores page now available 🟣Explore goalkicking accuracy and shot rating (2021-) 🟣View by player, team or AFL-wide 🟣View player shot charts 🟣Filter shots by season, shot type, distance and corridor/pocket wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.ht…

@UselessStatsAFL @CapitalCityCody Can’t unfortunately. But enjoying the analysis

@CapitalCityCody @figuringfooty hmu with some data, please, Robert @figuringfooty

Who's got the best xScore model? CD v @AFLLab's @AFLxScore v @andrew_whelan v @crow_data_sci (rip). Thanks to @greenlitaccount for the help.

@EmlynBreese The issue is the difference in definition between the statistical “expectation” which is the average value of a random variable, and the everyday use which tends to imply some level of fate or deserving. I’ve played with things like “shot value”, but fear the ship has sailed.

This week we dove relatively deep into centre clearances, how much they are really worth and how teams move the ball away from the middle. To do this of course we focused on West Coast. abc.net.au/news/2024-04-1…

📢📢 Ladies and gentlemen, the 2024 Big Data Bowl #BigDataBowl 📢📢 kaggle.com/competitions/n…

Does the outcome of tight matches play mind games on the umps as to which side they should give the votes to? The size of the gap between a 1pt win and a 1pt loss in the below suggests yes, it does. Using the margin is an obvious yet critical factor in predicting Brownlow voting.

Full results are in for 50 expert & media pundit preseason ladder predictions. Summary: Over the long term, Squiggle is going quite a lot better than any of them. I will be reposting this link once per day forever. squiggle.com.au/a-review-of-pr…

Champion Data's Daniel Hoyne provides some context around HOW Expected Score as a statistic should be used. @SENSportsday | #AFL

@AflGlicko So the team ratings you post on Monday are independent of selected team?

@figuringfooty Using last week's teams so a big gap in player quality.

Finals sims.

Quite simply the most wide-open battle for finals in #AFL history. The computer found over 230,000 possible permutations of the Final 8. Expect 5 teams to finish with 54+ and 8 teams to end up on 44-52 points. 48 won't be enough, unless you have both percentage and luck 1/5

@crow_data_sci @JTGiuliano @WheeloRatings @DeeArmy @The_DeeBrief @attntodeetail @melbournefc @demonland @MelbourneFooty @melbournefans @BreeseEmlyn How much of this is because the ball is in F-half more than the average? These are naturally higher threat, yes?

@JTGiuliano @WheeloRatings @DeeArmy @The_DeeBrief @attntodeetail @melbournefc @demonland @MelbourneFooty @melbournefans @BreeseEmlyn partly due to corridor use, sideways kicks from 65m-45m out kicking a small distance <30m. They take on aggressive kicks and are able to convert it into scoring shots

Who will break their losing streak in #AFLDeesBlues? Blues are the best CP team with high pressure recently. Dees are strong at CP, I50 & intercept and have improved defence at the expense of attack recently. If Dees can break even in contest it should go a long way to winning

Am really pleased to share this paper as my first piece of authored work. Hopefully it can add to commentary surrounding teams' forward line strategy in the AFL. You can check it out at the link below. #sportsanalytics #sportsdata #sports #analytics #afl

What does the average #AFL player look like? Layering semi-transparent AFL headshots of all 2022 players yields this bloke:

@CapitalCityCody @alittlefitness @BreeseEmlyn Ah yeah, that might be it. It was coded as if Brayshaw held the ball for half an hour for time in poss stats

@figuringfooty @alittlefitness @BreeseEmlyn The one thing I found in data that may skew it is lights out at the Gabba. I have to code it out each week.

#AFLFreoDogs style preview.

@alittlefitness @BreeseEmlyn How’s this calculated? Derived from event data? I can’t seem to replicate anything that has Melbourne anywhere near this low. Any particular games that stand out?

@BreeseEmlyn Yeah I keep waiting for it to come up in the mainstream media although I might be waiting a while 😴

🚨 Guide to Sports Analytics 📊 New design & we now cover 4! softwares in-depth (R, Python, Tableau, SQL). In total, links to 500+ tutorials, 250+ data sources, 125+ accounts to follow, 50 books, 40 cheatsheets, 40 papers & more. All in ONE place!! ⬇️ #gid=145377427" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u…

@MattCowgill @RDublyaBuckland They could break the 2 year drought for Joondalup AFL flags.

@alittlefitness @crow_data_sci @CapitalCityCody @liammannix A smoothed model is your first step in building an equity based player ratings model ala PR. But you’re improvements for this will definitely be marginal. Love what you’re doing!

@crow_data_sci @CapitalCityCody @liammannix Yep could definitely take that approach and would likely improve the accuracy as well. Could well be the next iteration!

#AFLTigersBlues Both teams can feel unlucky for different reasons with any drawn game. Carlton in this case because they were leading with 30s to go, Richmond because they "outplayed" Carlton for most of the game but couldn't get results on the scoreboard. 1/5

Hard to imagine a worse performance (both onfield and off) than that by the aussies. You can write it off as India being good, but England won’t be pushovers by any means.

2022 is done and dusted! Thought I'd put together a super thread of all the analysis, visualisation and data exploration I got up to this year.