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Essentially, yes. The text of the Constitution does not describe a process for a province to separate. However, the Supreme Court of Canada, in its 1998 reference case about Quebec, described how it could be done. If a province holds a referendum on a clear question supported by a clear majority, it will acquire a mandate to negotiate its departure. The Yes vote in the referendum, the Court said, would amount to a "clear repudiation" of the existing Canadian constitutional order. The province does not acquire a unilateral right to leave on its own terms, the Court said, but nor does the rest of the country have a unilateral right to stop it. The negotiations that follow are political negotiations that have no predetermined outcomes. In those negotiations, the Court said, there would be “no conclusions predetermined by law on any issue.” ANY ISSUE. People like to ask “What if” questions. What if the federal government refuses to negotiate? What if the negotiations do not produce agreement? What if the parties reach a deal but other provinces refuse constitutional amendments to put the deal into effect? We can make educated guesses about some of these, but the reality is that we would be in uncharted territory. We have not been down this road before. No constitutional document describes what happens next. The Supreme Court did not specifically address all the possible permutations. But it did acknowledge that a unilaterial declaration of independence was a possibility. (They emphasized that these are political negotiations that have no legally predetermined outcomes, so don’t come running back to us.) So, no one can be sure. Be skeptical of anyone who claims to know exactly how things will go.









