Flukewx

@TornadoCoaching High, aint got that much gas money

🌪️ Would you rather chase 30 marginal days or one high-risk day?

@AndyHazelton Those plots are sick

HAFS-A is really going crazy with Invest #92W in the West Pacific. That's one of the more impressive eye subsidence signatures I've ever seen on a model. We're introducing a new plot this year that's a bit nerdy - wavenumber decomposition of vertical velocity (basically shows the symmetric and asymmetric parts of the vertical motion field). This forecast shows the symmetric ring of an outer eyewall starting to develop, and also a little bit of asymmetry due to some moderate NE shear (notice increased rising downshear to the southwest where most of the bands are). Hoping to have all these updated products on the website soon!

@MatthewCappucci Its been like this all day

No idea why these tornado warnings are in effect in Massachusetts. There was some solid spin with the southern cell 20 minutes ago. Now we’re making close to a million people shelter needlessly. Casting a giant net with big polygons and a low threshold degrades credibility.

Some of these little supercells around Pensacola and Mobile are starting to spin pretty well

@DFWStormChasing Fun

Okay real talk Why do so many chasers intentionally get in the outer circulation or knowingly drive into the ghost train when they could be 1000-2000 feet further back getting a much better angle? Every chaser that gets that close is risking being Jonas Miller'd by a nefarious tree branch. Just, why? What's the purpose? What do you get out of that that's not possible 2000ft further back? And no I'm not talking about research teams or projects, im talkin regular ol chasers. I'm not upset, I'm just confused as to why. Does it have an actual reason or is it just thrill seeking?

Tropical Storm #Arthur Advisory 7A (7 PM CDT, Wed Jun 17): Center of Arthur Re-Forms Northeastward Near Galveston Texas. Life-Threatening Flooding Expected Across Portions of the Southeastern United States. hurricanes.gov

@GraceCWeather Purdue has a radar in the middle of the radar hole but its down for repairs and I don't believe the data is available to the general public.

if i had like a billion dollars im putting a radar here

@r42Mtasp He dead

@flyingfluke35 How🫩✌🏾

#Arthur is intensifying pretty well now that his center is closer to his convection. A 66kt FL wind has been recorded which is extremely unexpected and odd to be honest. We will soon see if Arthur is trying to run for hurricane status.

Kind of odd that the NHC is ignoring #Arthur seemingly strengthening but I guess there is no harm waiting another hour or two for the next recon pass as tropical storm warnings are in effect either way.

@HurricaneImelda Extremely unlikely Arthur reaches hurricane intensity imo, especially with the completed pass showing that the 66kt wind probably wasnt very representative

@flyingfluke35 there’s no way we get a hurricane in this el nino atlantic season BEFORE the pacific does

The 66kts FL wind was probably a little overdone but it was surrounded by other FL winds ranging from 59-62kts. I doubt the winds are mixing very efficiently but these are much stronger at this point than we expected.

@AndyHazelton I badly want a dropsonde for its new center

Seeing some evidence of an attempt at "downshear reformation" in TS #Arthur, with a new center trying to form closer to the convection. This is pretty common in weak, sheared systems like this. The center will "jump" in the direction of the deep thunderstorms, which continously get blown off in the direction of the strong upper-level winds (in this case, to the East). Due to this strong shear, this new center probably won't change much in terms of the intensity of the storm, and rainfall remains the biggest threat.

@Simcoe12_Wx Shoutout Arthur

First tornado of the day goes to.... ALABAMA?????

Very interesting how strong #Arthur actually is even though he looks absolutely awful(might have just finished moving his center). With the next few passes we will be able to determine if this dropsonde is actually representative.

@DerekOrtt Yeah that 52kt FL should be enough for 45kts especially with the surface obs from roughly the same time corroberating.

given the buoy, aircraft, and surface obs, I fully expect the winds in Arthur to be increased to the 40-45 kt range on the best track

@JaydonShawwx Hes trying his best🤧

You really know it’s June when you get a pathetic excuse of a tropical cyclone to waste away the first name

Say hello to our first tropical storm of the year. #Arthur is current packing 10mph sustained winds over its center but the Eastern blob has sustained winds near 50mph. The storm will be one for the recordbooks as it has never ventured further than 10 miles from land.

Tropical Storm #Arthur Advisory 5 (10 AM CDT, Wed Jun 17): Tropical Storm Arthur Develops Near the Middle Texas Coast. Life-Threatening Flooding Expected Across Portions of the Southeastern United States. hurricanes.gov

@Jackalope1234vd @NWSSPC They forgot to add the tornado probs in Louisiana

@NWSSPC Why double change to outlook? One was 55 minutes ago. Changed placement?

1:28pm CDT #SPC Day2 Outlook Moderate Risk: across parts of central Illinois into northwest Indiana spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo…