dhbbbbb
101 posts
In China, CBDC is linked to your digital ID.
This person gets caught with driving without a helmet. Police in control room immediately deducts 25 yuan (US3.6＄) fine from his digital wallet, and he could lose 1 social credit point.
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@OopsGuess @LuizaJarovsky Here we go again. She is indeed a Permanent head damage.
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@LuizaJarovsky Nobody wants to read hysterical anti-AI marketing disguised as expertise.
You do not oppose AI-generated content. You profit from anti-AI content.
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Nobody wants to read AI-generated posts.
Nobody wants to read AI-generated emails.
Nobody wants to read AI-generated newsletters.
Nobody wants to read AI-generated reports.
Nobody wants to read AI-generated articles.
Nobody wants to read AI-generated anything.
Luiza Jarovsky, PhD@LuizaJarovsky
Nobody wants to read AI-generated books.
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近日，#台湾 多个“台派”博主发布同一个视频，并嘲讽视频中的中国人没素质；而视频内容则是 地铁上中国人互相掌掴。
后续，一些简体网友表示质疑，并表明视频为AI伪造。即便视频看上去很假，台派在面对简体网友质疑时，却回应“影片外流就硬拗说假的”、“残体字 滚啦”、“中国人看不懂啦”、“中国人眼睛被割器官了吗、眼睛还在吗”……
各位网友，你们觉得“台派同胞”热传的这段视频 是真实的吗？🤔
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@SinoopyS @NguyenHo1096438 True. Clowns are usually great at emotional management—it's part of the act. After all, you have to compensate for those natural deficiencies somehow🤡
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@fotie90 @NguyenHo1096438 A distinction without relevance as that would create a "International Seabed Authority (ISA)" which was rejected for the same reason the ICJ was rejected.
As to pretensions of affecting my emotions... 'fraid not.
Was that all or was that it?
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LinkedIn是我用过最假的社交媒体，没有之一。每个人都在上面说假话，吹自己的牛逼，拍别人的马屁。没有感情，没有思想，没有一句真心话。如果这就是“专业主义”以及全世界最好学校的精英们向往的样子，那今天世界的虚无、空心和堕落也就不难解释。
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@FakeTsudonym @AutismCapital @TonyAdreani As long as u had ever browsed any jap social media, u would know actual Japanese accounts did post those edgy jokes back in 2024-2025. The “CCP fake theory is peak tinfoil cope from people who can’t handle their fave getting trolled by her own countryman lol
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@AutismCapital @TonyAdreani Chinese netizens have been making cart titan jokes about her since she was elected, so they are technically correct.
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The memes on Japanese X about Sanae Takaichi are brutal lmao. They have zero chill oh my god lmao. They’re calling her “the cart titan.” 💀💀💀
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@SinoopyS @NguyenHo1096438 America treats EEZ rules as “customary law” only when it suits them, lectures the world, then refuses to ratify. Rules for thee, not for me! Only UK among P5 accepts full ICJ — USA, China, Russia, France all wisely exempt. Cope harder, the double standard is showing. 🤡
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Don't be willfully stupid.
First the US did ratify the original treaty from 1958.
The US did not ratify the treaty from 1982 and only refused to do so because it made the jurisdiction of the ICJ obligatory which the United States has made it clear it will not abide. That has itself little to do with the "law of the sea" and further has nothing to do with the EEZ, territorial waters, etc concepts which the US has neither a problem with, no does it violate.
In fact, the US advocates for and has helped countries assert their territorial claims along these lines consistently.
Your pathetic whine is what?... that a UN Security Council member and primary hard power backer of the United Nations itself... including all your notions of international law... bind itself to courts in Europe that it has no influence over? Courts that could and have been shown to be persuadable to special interests?
Don't be absurd. Remove the ICJ proscription from your treaty and the US will sign it. Otherwise, pound sand.
I'll say just for you edification, that the only member of the Security Council that has bound themselves to the ICJ is the United Kingdom. France is exempted. Russia is exempted. China is exempted. And the United States of course is exempted.
The UK only accepted the ICJ because they hoped to use it as a legal weapon to compensate for their powerlessness to defend their far flung colonies in the absent of hard power.
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我 16 岁的弟弟，周二晚上看完那篇文章。
周三早上，他打开了 weather.gov
先看 NOAA 对纽约的预报：
43 度
再看 Polymarket：
“40–45 区间” 的价格只有 $0.15。
NOAA 准确率 93%
市场却只给 15%
那只能说明一件事：
总有一边错了
他买了 200 份，成本 $0.15
第二天气温出来：43 度
合约按 $1.00 结算
$0.15 → $1.00
单笔回报 567%
而且不是做完一单就停
第 1 天： NYC 天气，赚 $170
第 3 天： London 温度，赚 $94
第 5 天： Chicago 最高温，赚 $210
第 8 天： Seoul 预报，赚 $147
第 12 天： 回到 NYC，再赚 $320
后来他甚至形成了一套固定流程：
7:00 AM 看 NOAA
7:02 AM 对比 Polymarket
7:03 AM 如果偏差 >30% 就买
然后去上学
到了 第 6 周，结果是：
起始资金：$400
账户余额：$8,740
总交易：312 笔
胜率：87.4%
单笔平均利润：$26.70
每天耗时：上学前 3 分钟
最有意思的地方在于，素材里说 NOAA 更新预报后，Polymarket 要慢 9–15 分钟才会完成调整
也就是说，这里对上的不是“高手 vs 高手”
而更像是：
一个花了 60 亿美元的政府天气系统
对上
一群刷着 TikTok 顺手看天气盘的人
甚至更讽刺的是，他 6 周赚的钱
已经超过老师 2 个月 的工资
而整套逻辑并不复杂
数据是免费的
NOAA 是政府网站
公开
按小时更新
公式甚至只是小学数学：
EV = (0.93 × $1.00) - $0.15 = $0.78
也就是说，在最好的 setup 里，每股预期价值有 78 美分
他不知道什么是 LMSR
不知道什么是 softmax
也不知道什么是 neural network
他只知道一件事：
NOAA 有 93% 的时候是对的。
而 Polymarket 还没把这件事定进去。
最狠的是，我花了 3 个月 写 4,000 行 Rust
他每天花 3 分钟 看一眼 weather.gov，然后去上学
16 岁
$8,740
每天 3 分钟
一个政府网站
你觉得真正被低估的，是天气市场本身，还是这些免费公开数据在交易里的价值？
self.dll@seelffff
my 16 year old brother read this article on a tuesday night wednesday morning he opened weather.gov checked the NOAA forecast for NYC: 43 degrees checked polymarket: "40-45 range" priced at $0.15 NOAA accuracy: 93%. market says 15%. somebody is very wrong he bought 200 shares at $0.15 next day temperature: 43 degrees shares resolved at $1.00 $0.15 to $1.00. 567% return. one trade. one weather forecast he didn't stop day 1: NYC weather. $170 profit day 3: London temperature. $94 day 5: Chicago high. $210 day 8: Seoul forecast. $147 day 12: back to NYC. $320 he built a routine: 7:00 AM check NOAA 7:02 AM compare with polymarket 7:03 AM buy if divergence > 30% go to school by week 6: starting capital: $400 - birthday money balance: $8,740 trades: 312 win rate: 87.4% avg profit per trade: $26.70 time per day: 3 minutes before school NOAA updates forecasts 9-15 minutes before polymarket adjusts $6 billion government supercomputer vs teenagers checking weather between tiktoks he has made more in 6 weeks than his teacher makes in 2 months the data is free. NOAA is a government website. public. updated hourly the formula is 5th grade math: EV = (0.93 x $1.00) - $0.15 = $0.78 78 cents per share on the best setups my brother doesn't know what LMSR is doesn't know what softmax is doesn't know what a neural network is he knows one thing: NOAA is right 93% of the time and polymarket hasn't figured that out yet i spent 3 months writing 4,000 lines of Rust he checks weather.gov for 3 minutes and goes to school 16 years old. $8,740. 3 minutes a day. one government website what free public data source are you not checking?
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他父母砸了 28 万美金送他去 MIT 读计算机。
家里人给他设定的剧本很标准：顺利毕业，拿到 Google 的 Offer，安稳拿着 18 万美金的年薪。
但他只花了三周时间，在宿舍写了一个 Bot，把这个剧本彻底撕了。
这个名为 pm-timezone-arbitrage 的程序，三个月在预测市场卷走了 440 万美金。Google 一年给的钱，他的 Bot 两周就能印出来。
我查了那个地址的数据（432614799197）：总共 4390 次出手，全在体育盘口，比如 NFL、英超、法甲。没有复杂的宏观分析，也没有什么神级预测，只有一套冰冷且无解的底层逻辑。
他在做纯粹的降维打击：时区套利。
亚洲博彩公司的赔率，永远比美国平台快 2 到 3 个小时。他的策略就是盯死亚洲盘口的数据异动，在美国交易员还在睡觉、赔率还没来得及修正之前，提前在链上把筹码砸进去。
等美国那边天亮，市场开始调整赔率时，他的无风险利润已经锁死了。
上周他妈妈打电话，例行公事地问 Google 的 HR 回信没有。
他说他不去了。他妈妈在电话里当场急哭了。
然后他一句话没解释，直接把账户余额截图发了过去。
现在这个账户有近 28 万人在盯着，里面还有 120 万美金的头寸在自动运转。
而他本人，依然住在拥挤的学生公寓，每天骑着自行车去上课。
父母花 28 万美金买的文凭，他的代码 6 周就赚回来了。
这就是这个市场的真相。当普通人还在卷简历的时候，顶级玩家早就利用信息差和时间差，打造了自己的提款机。
Ace@noexcuse555
分享 5 个开箱即用的 Polymarket 开源交易脚本。 如果你打算在 Polymarket 上构建自动化交易系统，这里有你需要的基础组件。从底层的数据抓取、钱包追踪，到自动化执行和机器学习模型，基本涵盖了量化交易的全套流程。 1. 交易终端 (Trading terminal) 支持快捷键操作、极速下单、盈亏监控以及 Telegram 实时报警。彻底告别每 5 秒就需要手动确认一次钱包签名的繁琐操作。 GitHub: github.com/txbabaxyz/poly… 2. 数据记录器 (Data recorder) 同步抓取 Polymarket 和币安的盘面数据。包括订单薄深度、历史成交和各项技术指标，全部落盘保存并提供实时可视化看板。 GitHub: github.com/txbabaxyz/poly… 3. 自动化交易机器人 (Trading bot) 基于置信度公式动态计算仓位，并设定硬性止损。核心策略是在市场结算前约 4 分钟，系统自动买入当前的高胜率标的。 GitHub: github.com/txbabaxyz/4coi… 4. 钱包分析工具 (Wallet analyzer) 专门用于追踪聪明钱地址。输入任意钱包，自动提取其完整的交易历史，按具体预测市场进行分类，并生成可视化的建仓轨迹图表。 GitHub: github.com/txbabaxyz/coll… 5. 机器学习模型 (ML model) 通过 TAAPI 接口拉取 208 种技术指标，用于预测市场走向并测算盘面的公允价值。 GitHub: github.com/txbabaxyz/mlmo… 以上工具均为免费开源。你可以独立运行这些脚本模块，也可以将它们作为代码库直接喂给 Claude，用来辅助迭代和定制你自己的全自动化交易闭环。
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@SinoopyS @NguyenHo1096438 LOL meanwhile America hasn’t ratified UNCLOS, still squats on Guantanamo against Cuba’s will, bickers with Canada over Machias Seal Island, and claims Navassa from Haiti.
But sure, keep lecturing everyone on “rules” you don’t follow, champ. Peak clown energy. 🤡
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@NguyenHo1096438 That's not the interesting part of the line.
Why doesn't it go north?
Why does it only go south?
GIF
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两个通宵，自进化量化系统终于搞出来了...
说实话是真的费钱...
GPT5.4花了500u，Claude花掉了500U，然后跑了一遍，迭代出来的首个动态策略年化23%，最大回撤17%，远远不及我的预期...
于是又找 Gemini3.1 去给我出主意，在此期间订阅了Ultra，还升级了Cursor的会员，又是300u...
结果就是...
花了1300u，搞出来一个表现和双均线策略差不多的玩意儿...
虽然我知道它理论上可以不断生成各种策略，但心态真的有点崩...
我就想问，给专门搞量化的程序员付上1万rmb，这东西能写出来吗？
Crypto_Painter@CryptoPainter
更新一下目前的进展，真的是挺焦虑的： 三个系统全部搭建好了，而且相互之间的调用接口也跑通了，但当我开始实测使用系统C进行 HMM 训练时，AI和我产生了严重的意见分歧... 我认为判断市场结构是否处于震荡还是趋势，用4h或1d数据就可以，但 AI 却强烈要求使用15min数据来训练... 因为我给 Agent 加了“意见不合时可以强烈反对并不执行”的设定，所以我花了一晚上才说服他，毕竟15min的全量数据实在太大了，而且用来判断市场结构也是偏向微观的... 然后就是随着整个大系统越来越复杂，每次有一点小BUG，就要来来回回修很久，因为三个系统之间接口和架构需要连锁适应，所以我体感上感觉整个项目的进度越来越慢了... 不知道你们 Vibe Coding 的时候有没有这种感觉？ 我到了后期甚至怀疑 AI 在有意通过放慢执行效率来让我烧更多 Token... 而且这个倾向会随着上下文的增加而逐步增强... 真的有点细思极恐...
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